6 ms·

Very end of the article: [The call with the pilot of Southwest 4712 was by far the most interesting. He immediately notes how strange the encounter was and how

Very end of the article: [The call with the pilot of Southwest 4712 was by far the most interesting. He immediately notes how strange the encounter was and how he has never seen an incident like it in nearly 30 years of flying jets. The pilot noted, "if it was like a Lear (private jet) type airframe I probably would not have seen it this clear. This was a white airplane and it was big. And it was moving at a clip too, because we were keeping pace with it, it was probably moving faster than we were... It was a larger aircraft yeah."] What's most interesting is how many people we're involved and of course... Someone is apparently flying some really advanced aircraft over the U.S.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago
> Someone is apparently flying some really advanced aircraft over the U.S. Apparently? So many atmospheric effects can look the same to many people from a single perspective.
- justAnotherNET 9y ago
  Thousands of non-crazy subject matter experts making claims over the decades is not “atmospheric phenomenon”.
- SomewhatLikely 9y ago
  From the recordings it sounded to me like they got visual confirmation from both north and south bound aircraft.
- colordrops 9y ago
  The US didn't stop developing secret aircraft after the B-2 was declassified in 1988. The SR71 was built in the 50s and still seems crazy advanced. I can't imagine what they are working on now.
  - JumpCrisscross 9y ago
    > The US didn't stop developing secret aircraft after the B-2 was declassified in 1988 But the rate at which information disperses changed since then. Big, covert, multi-decade military research projects might be possible if we entered a new Cold War. But in peacetime? While we’re navigating political junctures? Unlikely. (Though not impossible.)
    - muricula 9y ago
      Peacetime? The US is still in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Air Force bombed Russian military contractors in Syria last week.
      - kevin_thibedeau 9y ago
        We have always been at war with EastAsia.
    - jamiegreen 9y ago
      I keep reading news stories about how we are in a new Cold War/the threat of nuclear confrontation is as high as any point during the cold war ....
      - wallace_f 9y ago
        Here's an interview with Greenwald discussing current Russian fear mongering in the US media today. His conclusion is that the lessons of the mistakes in journalism which led us to the Iraq War are being repeated. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/01/07/glenn_greenwald_to_tucker_carlson_washington_post_pushing_fake_news_on_russia.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/01/07/glenn_gre...
        knz 9y ago
        Fear mongering?! In the context of the increasing evidence of Russian involvement in our elections and reports about their support of our enemies (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/05/17/evidence-russian-military-support-for-afghan-taliban-is-growing.html http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/05/17/evidence-russian-mil... or https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/24/russia-is-sending-weapons-to-taliban-top-u-s-general-confirms https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/24...) I'm not sure it's baseless fear mongering. Greenwald isn't exactly an impartial source when it comes to Russia either - he has his own overt biases. It's healthy to be skeptical but naive to assume Russia is a benevolent actor on the world stage (even more so in the context of events like https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17).
  - topspin 9y ago
    >> The SR71 was built in the 50s The SR-71 is a 60's era aircraft. First flight in 64. Its predecessor, the A-12, flew in 62 with construction starting in Sept. 1960. Prior to that these aircraft were a series of paper designs beginning in the late 50's. Early versions of the J-58 were run in the late 50's, but these early engines were not flown in A-12/SR-71; substantial rework was needed to sustain mach 3.
- arcticfox 9y ago
  I'm all for atmospheric effects when the only other explanation is aliens but this thing was flying at a height and speed and appearance totally consistent with modern aircraft with multiple observations. By far the most likely explanation is US military.
  - IntronExon 9y ago
    Why military? Not smugglers? Not intelligence services, or just an asshole? The military is a possibility, but I don’t know about “most likely” here.
    - archgoon 9y ago
      Most of the speculation here hinges on it being an advanced aircraft that successfully evaded the USAF. Though it's entirely possible that that is easier than it sounds. Given that assumption, the answer to your questions are: > Why military? The assumption here is that the military goofed, didn't tell another branch about it (hence the USAF scrambled), and is avoiding either embarrasment or needs to keep the deployment of the craft as secret as possible. This probably happens on a regular basis (though if we have data on how often that happened during the Cold war, that'd be useful), and explains why USAF couldn't find anything. > Not smugglers I have never heard of smugglers having advanced aircraft that would be flying around Oregon; Seems pretty risky. Also, doesn't make a ton of sense as you presumably wouldn't be able to transport much with a high speed aircraft. Definitely an interesting proposal, have you heard of smugglers having advanced aircraft? > intelligence services Possible; Which ones, the American Intelligence Services? If so, I believe the parent was lumping them in with 'military'. Though it still seems more likely that this was just bad internal communication, mostly because I wouldn't expect a foreign spy plane to be ever be caught flying at high speeds; though it could be a generic attempt to test the US response. Be great if anyone has any data on how often that sort of thing happened during the Cold War. > just an asshole Seems very unlikely. What random assholes have access to advanced aircraft that can evade the USAF? So under the assumption that this was an advanced aircraft, the most likely explanation is government, either the US's or a foreign intelligence service. Since presumably the US is in control of it's own airspace, the idea that this was the US itself seems the simplest explanation.
IntronExon 9y ago
Possibly, although it strikes me as possible that being a pilot doesn’t make you necessarily supercompetent where observing unfamiliar phenomena is concerned. Pilots are trained for a specific, if comprehensive, set of circumstances, and things like death spirals occur because even that training can fail. Pilots, ground crew, flight controllers and so on, are not magically reliable. That said, it could be exactly as reported, but it might not be.
nradov 9y ago
Really advanced? The size, speed, and altitude were no better than airliners from 50 years ago.
- thatguydan 9y ago
  Airliners from 50 years ago couldn't make themselves invisible to radar. Still can't.
  - RyJones 9y ago
    Turn off transponder. In the US, outside the ADIZ, we don't have a blanket of active radar.
    - danaliv 9y ago
      That's fine for secondary, but you'll still show up on primary.
      - nradov 9y ago
        Civilian primary radar in most places isn't that strong. It may or may not get a good skin paint depending on distance, size, and atmospheric conditions.
        sokoloff 9y ago
        Primary radar is good enough to pickup a 2500# single engine airplane from 50+ miles away. I flew from Detroit to Boston a few years back in a 4-seat, single engine airplane after an electrical failure. On a hand-held radio and with no electrics, ATC had a good primary target on me the entire way (at 5-9K feet). On controller handoffs, I would have to turn north for 1 mile for them to confirm the primary target they were looking at was me. Up and down the Eastern seaboard, I pretty regularly get traffic called out as "primary target only" which also means ATC has no idea of the altitude. Those tend to be low, slow moving aircraft (often without electrical systems).
PaulAJ 9y ago
How did this pilot estimate distance? In clear air with nothing to give you perspective an object can be close, small and slow, or big, fast and distant; there is simply no way to tell the difference visually.
- eyko 9y ago
  Not sure what the pilot in question did, but changing altitude whilst you observe an object can help you make an educated guess.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago

> Someone is apparently flying some really advanced aircraft over the U.S. Apparently? So many atmospheric effects can look the same to many people from a single perspective.

justAnotherNET 9y ago
Thousands of non-crazy subject matter experts making claims over the decades is not “atmospheric phenomenon”.
SomewhatLikely 9y ago
From the recordings it sounded to me like they got visual confirmation from both north and south bound aircraft.
colordrops 9y ago
The US didn't stop developing secret aircraft after the B-2 was declassified in 1988. The SR71 was built in the 50s and still seems crazy advanced. I can't imagine what they are working on now.
- JumpCrisscross 9y ago
  > The US didn't stop developing secret aircraft after the B-2 was declassified in 1988 But the rate at which information disperses changed since then. Big, covert, multi-decade military research projects might be possible if we entered a new Cold War. But in peacetime? While we’re navigating political junctures? Unlikely. (Though not impossible.)
  - muricula 9y ago
    Peacetime? The US is still in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Air Force bombed Russian military contractors in Syria last week.
    - kevin_thibedeau 9y ago
      We have always been at war with EastAsia.
  - jamiegreen 9y ago
    I keep reading news stories about how we are in a new Cold War/the threat of nuclear confrontation is as high as any point during the cold war ....
    - wallace_f 9y ago
      Here's an interview with Greenwald discussing current Russian fear mongering in the US media today. His conclusion is that the lessons of the mistakes in journalism which led us to the Iraq War are being repeated. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/01/07/glenn_greenwald_to_tucker_carlson_washington_post_pushing_fake_news_on_russia.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/01/07/glenn_gre...
      - knz 9y ago
        Fear mongering?! In the context of the increasing evidence of Russian involvement in our elections and reports about their support of our enemies (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/05/17/evidence-russian-military-support-for-afghan-taliban-is-growing.html http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/05/17/evidence-russian-mil... or https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/24/russia-is-sending-weapons-to-taliban-top-u-s-general-confirms https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/24...) I'm not sure it's baseless fear mongering. Greenwald isn't exactly an impartial source when it comes to Russia either - he has his own overt biases. It's healthy to be skeptical but naive to assume Russia is a benevolent actor on the world stage (even more so in the context of events like https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17).
- topspin 9y ago
  >> The SR71 was built in the 50s The SR-71 is a 60's era aircraft. First flight in 64. Its predecessor, the A-12, flew in 62 with construction starting in Sept. 1960. Prior to that these aircraft were a series of paper designs beginning in the late 50's. Early versions of the J-58 were run in the late 50's, but these early engines were not flown in A-12/SR-71; substantial rework was needed to sustain mach 3.
arcticfox 9y ago
I'm all for atmospheric effects when the only other explanation is aliens but this thing was flying at a height and speed and appearance totally consistent with modern aircraft with multiple observations. By far the most likely explanation is US military.
- IntronExon 9y ago
  Why military? Not smugglers? Not intelligence services, or just an asshole? The military is a possibility, but I don’t know about “most likely” here.
  - archgoon 9y ago
    Most of the speculation here hinges on it being an advanced aircraft that successfully evaded the USAF. Though it's entirely possible that that is easier than it sounds. Given that assumption, the answer to your questions are: > Why military? The assumption here is that the military goofed, didn't tell another branch about it (hence the USAF scrambled), and is avoiding either embarrasment or needs to keep the deployment of the craft as secret as possible. This probably happens on a regular basis (though if we have data on how often that happened during the Cold war, that'd be useful), and explains why USAF couldn't find anything. > Not smugglers I have never heard of smugglers having advanced aircraft that would be flying around Oregon; Seems pretty risky. Also, doesn't make a ton of sense as you presumably wouldn't be able to transport much with a high speed aircraft. Definitely an interesting proposal, have you heard of smugglers having advanced aircraft? > intelligence services Possible; Which ones, the American Intelligence Services? If so, I believe the parent was lumping them in with 'military'. Though it still seems more likely that this was just bad internal communication, mostly because I wouldn't expect a foreign spy plane to be ever be caught flying at high speeds; though it could be a generic attempt to test the US response. Be great if anyone has any data on how often that sort of thing happened during the Cold War. > just an asshole Seems very unlikely. What random assholes have access to advanced aircraft that can evade the USAF? So under the assumption that this was an advanced aircraft, the most likely explanation is government, either the US's or a foreign intelligence service. Since presumably the US is in control of it's own airspace, the idea that this was the US itself seems the simplest explanation.

IntronExon 9y ago

Possibly, although it strikes me as possible that being a pilot doesn’t make you necessarily supercompetent where observing unfamiliar phenomena is concerned. Pilots are trained for a specific, if comprehensive, set of circumstances, and things like death spirals occur because even that training can fail. Pilots, ground crew, flight controllers and so on, are not magically reliable. That said, it could be exactly as reported, but it might not be.

nradov 9y ago

Really advanced? The size, speed, and altitude were no better than airliners from 50 years ago.

thatguydan 9y ago
Airliners from 50 years ago couldn't make themselves invisible to radar. Still can't.
- RyJones 9y ago
  Turn off transponder. In the US, outside the ADIZ, we don't have a blanket of active radar.
  - danaliv 9y ago
    That's fine for secondary, but you'll still show up on primary.
    - nradov 9y ago
      Civilian primary radar in most places isn't that strong. It may or may not get a good skin paint depending on distance, size, and atmospheric conditions.
      - sokoloff 9y ago
        Primary radar is good enough to pickup a 2500# single engine airplane from 50+ miles away. I flew from Detroit to Boston a few years back in a 4-seat, single engine airplane after an electrical failure. On a hand-held radio and with no electrics, ATC had a good primary target on me the entire way (at 5-9K feet). On controller handoffs, I would have to turn north for 1 mile for them to confirm the primary target they were looking at was me. Up and down the Eastern seaboard, I pretty regularly get traffic called out as "primary target only" which also means ATC has no idea of the altitude. Those tend to be low, slow moving aircraft (often without electrical systems).

PaulAJ 9y ago

How did this pilot estimate distance? In clear air with nothing to give you perspective an object can be close, small and slow, or big, fast and distant; there is simply no way to tell the difference visually.

eyko 9y ago
Not sure what the pilot in question did, but changing altitude whilst you observe an object can help you make an educated guess.