10 ms·

Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

106 points by watchdogtimer 9y ago

curuinor 9y ago
Causal statements. No experiment means you shouldn't make causal statements. You can have natural experiments, but I don't see any. Did they try kidnapping Congress and forcing them to do a total embargo on China? Seems a no.
- NumberSix 9y ago
  Asteroid is discovered in deep space heading for Earth. Astronomers watch the asteroid approach Earth. Asteroid hits New York City. Millions die. Astronomers and media report: "Asteroid from deep space kills millions. Asteroid causes death of millions." No experiment is possible. Causation is clear.
  - curuinor 9y ago
    I'm sorry to be seeming to make a straw man, but do you actually in sober thought think that economics is as well-understood as physics?
    - craftyguy 9y ago
      Did you just post a rebutal to your original comment calling for 'experiments'? If economics is as mysterious as you say, how can you design experiments that produce verifiable and reproducible results?
      - curuinor 9y ago
        Physics has had a lot of predictive power: economics hasn't. "Asteroids are incredibly powerful" is a physical statement, and a physical statement of causation that you can only make because physics is better-understood. With exceptions, physical statements have predictive power. With exceptions, economic statements don't. So that's why I say that causality in economics is not generally understood.
- dang 9y ago
  "Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment is one that teaches us something." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
galieos_ghost 9y ago
Not sure why people are shocked by this, it's just the basic principle of diffusion. As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. The standard of living is raising in other countries while lowering in the US. Labor is already getting too expensive in China for cheap goods so companies are beginning to look at other countries for cheap labor, or bring manufacturing back to the US and us automation to make up the difference. The US really has no incentive to allow this to happen. We have the largest market in the world and could very easily do what China does if other countries want access to it. The US allows anybody into our markets while China bends them over the bargaining table requiring them to give up IP and form joint ventures with Chinese companies. What incentive does the US have to do "fair" trade? We have all the leverage in any negotiation but for years haven't used that leverage. At some point we're going to have to or the citizens are going to either rebel or accept lower standard of living, lower income, and lower life expectancy. I'm starting to believe that the reason Washington DC does nothing about the opioid crisis is because it benefits them. If thousands of unemployed, heavily armed rust belt men were not strung out and dying from addiction they probably would have organized and marched on DC a long time ago and got payback on the politicians who have sold them out for personal gain.
- baxtr 9y ago
  What’s your hypothesis that this is not happening elsewhere then? Let’s say in Germany. Free trade there as well...
  - galieos_ghost 9y ago
    Germany has been called out many times for boosting trade by manipulating the Euro. They also have stronger unions which plays a roll. They also don't have millions of illegal immigrants with no federal labor protection driving wages down internally. https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/05/26/trump-right-about-germany-trade-000445 https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/05/26/trump-right...
    - 9y ago
ekidd 9y ago
I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift operations overseas and put downward pressure on wages of less-skilled Americans. There's an obvious capitalistic answer to this problem: If you're "crying out" for labor, then you may need to offer more money. This will encourage more people to work, or to acquire the skills you want—look at all those coding bootcamps, for example. Claiming that there's a labor shortage and downward pressure on wages is an extraordinary claim, and it requires a detailed explanation. Otherwise, the obvious assumption is that somebody wants specialized skills for below-market prices. If markets are good at one thing, it's adjusting prices to balance supply and demand.
- kmonsen 9y ago
  We see this all the time in tech, cannot find people is usually cannot find people with the skills and experience we want for the price we are willing to pay. This will always be true if you offer less than the current market rate which startups seems to think they are entitled to.
  - whereismypwd 9y ago
    I saw an ad here a few days ago on HN for a "Lead ML Researcher" for $85-100k + 0.5-2%.
    - PunchTornado 9y ago
      Exactly the point. And then people complain about labour shortages in ML.
  - icelancer 9y ago
    >> current market rate Many of the new positions being created in startups have no defined market rate, which causes more malinvestment (overpaying workers who don't produce well enough) or shortage of labor due to insufficient perceived compensation. Businesses will almost always err on the side of shortage of labor and keeping costs down when they can (though you could argue otherwise in the current ridiculous VC-backed industry), so this will always be a "problem" in the market.
yusuke10 9y ago
On the one hand, US is doing great. US grew 3% annualized last year, on a base of 19T, the most in the world. That's very impressive considering how big the base is to even have such a big percentage. You can compare that to China, where they had to keep reporting a fake 7% growth despite their provinces confessing to a 20-30% fake revenue. In the last 40 years, America's middle class shrank 7%. However, the lower middle class shrank 7% as well, and the upper middle class grew 16%. (http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/21/news/economy/upper-middle-class/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/21/news/economy/upper-middle-cl...) . Implying that alot of the lower middle and middle had moved up. Especially in certain cities like San Francisco or Santa Clara, where there is just an abundance of $130k+/year jobs (and contrary to popular belief, one can easily save $50-60k/year by renting a room in a house at $1000/month). On the other hand, it seems like the lower class has barely budged, and has remained in place and their quality of life has suffered. They have been losing manufacturing jobs to China and other countries (20M at the height in 1970, 12M currently http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/07/news/economy/us-manufacturing-jobs/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/07/news/economy/us-manufacturin...). However, now with an administration dedicated to bringing jobs back from overseas (with focus on manufacturing), and enacting tariffs on countries that competes by flooding the market and destroying local competition, the jobs for lower class should be growing starting this year. The current solar/washing machine tariff, and upcoming steel and aluminum tariffs against China should help.
- humanrebar 9y ago
  > and contrary to popular belief, one can easily save $50-60k/year by renting a room in a house at $1000/month What if you have a family?
tomohawk 9y ago
I personally know several people who are no longer competitive in various jobs due to the massive influx of illegal immigrants. These are tradesmen, landscapers, and others who used to be able to support their families and live in the area. Many of them now commute long distances (so they can live in lower cost areas) for far less pay. Their children are not following them into these jobs. And its not because they're unwilling to do the work. They're priced out because their own government is unwilling to protect them from these predatory practices.
- hycaria 9y ago
  So how do the immigrants manage to go by and live with the same wage?
  - tomohawk 9y ago
    They're committing document and identity fraud and dodging taxes. They're breaking housing laws by living multiple unrelated people (beyond legal capacity) per dwelling. We just had 9 illegal aliens evicted from a 2BR house not too far away. Good for them (probably a step up from 3rd world conditions), but bad if you want to maintain some quality of life.
    - walshemj 9y ago
      And in even worse cases being held as indentured slaves - there have been a number of cases in the UK involving poor migrants from former WP countries in the EU, Id imagine the USA is no different.
    - elinmigrante 9y ago
      Your first sentence is a bit of an oxymoron. Allow me to explain. Without resorting to identity fraud, its nearly impossible for undocumented immigrants to find work because most employers require a social security number for payroll purposes. Even though they use a fake identity, they still get a paycheck, they still pay payroll taxes and pay into Medicare and Social Security. However, they get none of the benefits. Undocumented immigrants have no other choice but to commit identity fraud. Unfortunately for them, its a necessary evil. Their intent is not to dodge taxes. I'm not saying all undocumented immigrants pay taxes but most are not opposed to it. A little google search will bring up plenty of research into this topic. http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2016/oct/02/maria-teresa-kumar/how-much-do-undocumented-immigrants-pay-taxes/ http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2016/oct/02/... https://itep.org/wp-content/uploads/undocumentedtaxes.pdf https://itep.org/wp-content/uploads/undocumentedtaxes.pdf To your point about them breaking housing laws, all I can say is that its true but this isn't something that is limited to undocumented immigrants. Just take a look at the hacker houses in the bay. Maybe what is needed is more affordable housing. I see where you're coming from but blaming undocumented immigrants for lowering the quality of life is a disservice. The US benefits immensely from undocumented immigrants but its something few want to admit.
asdffdsa 9y ago
There has to be a point where mere unemployment isn't stigmitized. Of course, being lazy, unproductive, and at worst destructive has to be condemned/disincentivized, but the association of unemployment to unproductive and from unproductive to some sense of worthlessness/leeching has to be amended in our society. Whether it's UBI, an increase in non-profits, and/or a proliferation of diverse and meaningful government funded projects (arts, public works, infrastructure), there are many ways to put people to meaningful work and utility besides working for a for-profit corporation. I think overcoming the stress induced by higher unemployment produced by automation will be one of the biggest societal challenges America (and beyond) will face in the coming decades. The outdated, 20th century model of work hard (for a company) -> be happy/fulfilled/successful will change. Ultimately, I think automation is for the best: let humans do what they do best (be creative, think abstractly, form and implement new models of the world/society/some concept, learn/iterate/improve/adapt) and let machines do what they do best ([generally speaking] automated tasks that require little improvisation or flexibility).
- CryptoPunk 9y ago
  Living on handouts or at the taxpayer's expense is not dignified or sustainable, and should be discouraged. A fruitful strategy in my opinion would be to encourage people to become financially self-reliant from passive sources of income, to the point of not requiring employment income, by building up their capital, and looking at the interventions done by the government that impede capital formation, especially for those starting from nothing, like: * licensing restrictions that exclude amateurs and small businesses from participating in various industries (e.g. securities laws that prevent non-public-companies and unaccredited investors from issuing stock to the public and buying stock from non-public companies, respectively) * occupational licensing * high tax burdens * government deficits crowding out lending to the private sector * zoning restrictions causing housing costs in core economic regions to increase
whataretensors 9y ago
I'm in my prime and relatively competent. The reason I'm broke working on my own startup and not at a company is because every company or successful project I've been a part of has not led to my success as an individual. FTE at a startup is high risk low reward. You might think with funding a startup is not high risk. It is. You are giving up the huge salary you'd get a a megacorp. And don't even get me started on the common stock issue. FTE at a megacorp is medium risk medium reward. Not high enough reward until you get to the higher levels - difficult to do. And also the dull monotone reward signal of direct deposit every two weeks is so incredibly boring. So now I'm left bootstrapping. The only thing left with high reward. It's hard. My insurance sucks. Trying to work with other companies is obnoxious. Every app store takes 30% and thinks they have employees without the paperwork. One app store I built something for requested(demanded) never ending meaningless changes then released a copy of my idea without telling me. It wasn't even that good of an idea in retrospect. The game is rigged and not optional. People everywhere hate rigged games.
scilro 9y ago
>Higher minimum wages are probably another cause. >After declining in inflation-adjusted terms from 1998 to 2007, minimum wages rose almost 11% in real terms between 2007 and 2016, Abraham and Kearney estimated. Firms may have outsourced jobs or spent more on automation to offset the higher costs of low-skilled labor. Is it just me, or is this a shockingly misleading paragraph? That minimum wages rose in real terms tells us nothing. They may have kept in place with inflation, or they may have even continued to fall in inflation-adjusted terms. This is not an apples-to-apples comparison at all.
- arebop 9y ago
  "inflation-adjusted terms" and "real terms" are the same thing. The author was trying to avoid repetition but the only contrast intended here is between the earlier decline and later rise.
- tuckermi 9y ago
  It seems confusingly worded, but "real terms" does typically mean that it is adjusted for inflation. Assuming that is the case, it is apples-to-apples even though it is oddly phrased.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- refurb 9y ago
  Real terms means inflation adjusted. Nominal means just the rate ignoring inflation.
  - scilro 9y ago
    Thanks, all. I thought that "real" was the same thing as nominal.
- stochastastic 9y ago
  I don’t think this is misleading; in economics parlance “real” terms means inflation adjusted. Perhaps you are thinking of “nominal” terms, which would not be?
will_brown 9y ago
I can squeeze myself into that group due to long extents of unemployment in my prime years and I: - graduated college early - graduated law school early - was a judicial law school - co-developed and sold a patent pending business method for the automated calculation of fees in statutory litigation In my specific case, especially in law, one thing holds me back (essentially placing me on a do not hire blacklist) I have a blemish on my criminal record for a possession of marijuana charge when I was 21 years old. Law is an old school industry that doesn’t generally overlook that type of thing, I even had 1 interview end immediately right when that was asked/disclosed during the interview itself. But even outside of Law I have applied to hundreds of jobs without ever getting interviews, I have applied to all the tech companies (in legal positions) without an interview. I have probably even applied to a dozen or so YC companies and never a single interview, YC even invested in a start up that is supposed to help people with criminal records get jobs and I reached out for assistance and was told they couldn’t assist me. This brings me to my second point, like there are “blacklists” and policies against candidates with criminal records, there are just plain old blacklists and I bet most of this 3.5 million are on them. It’s not just People with criminal records either, people with poor credit are on blacklists, people with employment gaps are on blacklists. These blacklists are both internal company policies but also in some cases real shared lists between recruiters and other lists HR checks. I’ll personally be alright because I can make money without a job but most can’t and need traditional emoloyment. And they will never get a job because they are in in this endless cycle of employment gap and poor finances (bad credit) that can never be rehabilitated because of mindless policy. This also explains a class of people ready and willing to be exploited in the gig economy.
- k_sh 9y ago
  It sounds like you're probably located in CA, have you looked into getting that possession taken off of your record, assuming the charge was in CA? The statewide legalization effort yielded[0] a provision that allows for review and possible expungement of marijuana-related charges. [0]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/convicted-of-a-marijuana-crime-in-california-it-might-go-away-thanks-to-legal-pot/2017/12/17/1e9a2564-d90f-11e7-b859-fb0995360725_story.html?utm_term=.66f3e3d7c9d7 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/convicted-of-a-marij...
mythrwy 9y ago
There's a lot of challenges, automation, globalization, immigration, poor schooling, poor family life, discrimination, clueless human resource departments, unjust stigma from encounters with criminal justice system. All these things are issues, part of the reason many people can't work. With all that in mind, some (largish?) percentage of people not working are simply unemployable. As in, they won't be able to do a job. Or they will make more trouble than they will put out so are net negative to have employed and thus don't stay employed. I don't know what can be done about this, probably feed them and call it good. Not sure everyone is owed a job, at least the way the system is set up now.
mcguire 9y ago
Next on tonight's news: disability cheats, the millions of Americans who could work, but don't. Yep, I'm a cynic. Then, there's this: "After declining in inflation-adjusted terms from 1998 to 2007, minimum wages rose almost 11% in real terms between 2007 and 2016, Abraham and Kearney estimated. Firms may have outsourced jobs or spent more on automation to offset the higher costs of low-skilled labor." I was unaware there were many minimum wage jobs that could be outsourced or replaced. Most are in the service industries, right?
zaroth 9y ago
I didn’t read the study, but an even bigger factor than SSDI is Medicaid expansion. Free insurance with no co-pays and deductibles is worth a lot of money if you consume any healthcare services, and you can only get it if you don’t earn more than 140% FPL.
- dragonwriter 9y ago
  > Free insurance with no co-pays and deductibles is worth a lot of money if you consume any healthcare services, and you can only get it if you don’t work. The Medicaid expansion population is up to 138% of Federal Poverty Level, so it's not “available only if you don't work”, and the vast majority of states participating in the expansion impose cost sharing requirements (which work like deductibles, though at least the ones I know well are monthly rather than annual), so it's mostly not “with no copay or deductible”.
  - DrScump 9y ago
    The Medicaid population excludes those who pay any portion of subsidized ACA policies, even when the subsidy is 95+% (e.g. paying $10/month for a Bronze policy with the taxpayers paying the other $500+).
    - dragonwriter 9y ago
      > The Medicaid population excludes those who pay any portion of subsidized ACA policies The ACA subsidy minimum income in Medicaid expansion states is the exact minimum amount that fails to qualify for Medicaid expansion in the first place, so such an exclusion is irrelevant to the expansion population (the ACA minimum is lower—100% of FPL—in states that don't expand Medicaid, but that's obviously immaterial to the effect of Medicaid expansion.) Medicaid cost sharing is, in case you are unclear, also a completely different thing than the recipient paying a subsidized ACA premium, it's being on Medicaid and paying the first $N/month for Medicaid services, where N is income dependent, out of pocket.
purplezooey 9y ago
3.5 million Americans could either be at work today or looking for jobs. That would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor. Yeah right. It's my experience that companies do not care about picking up anyone who is not already perfectly tailored for the role needed. If that person hasn't been found, the req just sits there. Sometimes for a year or more. That there is some "unfilled gap" of jobs is a fallacy.
hisforehead 9y ago
I'm one of these, it sucks. Several career starts failed, having to rebuild again.

106 points by watchdogtimer 9y ago

Causal statements. No experiment means you shouldn't make causal statements. You can have natural experiments, but I don't see any. Did they try kidnapping Congress and forcing them to do a total embargo on China? Seems a no.

NumberSix 9y ago
Asteroid is discovered in deep space heading for Earth. Astronomers watch the asteroid approach Earth. Asteroid hits New York City. Millions die. Astronomers and media report: "Asteroid from deep space kills millions. Asteroid causes death of millions." No experiment is possible. Causation is clear.
- curuinor 9y ago
  I'm sorry to be seeming to make a straw man, but do you actually in sober thought think that economics is as well-understood as physics?
  - craftyguy 9y ago
    Did you just post a rebutal to your original comment calling for 'experiments'? If economics is as mysterious as you say, how can you design experiments that produce verifiable and reproducible results?
    - curuinor 9y ago
      Physics has had a lot of predictive power: economics hasn't. "Asteroids are incredibly powerful" is a physical statement, and a physical statement of causation that you can only make because physics is better-understood. With exceptions, physical statements have predictive power. With exceptions, economic statements don't. So that's why I say that causality in economics is not generally understood.
dang 9y ago
"Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment is one that teaches us something." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

galieos_ghost 9y ago

Not sure why people are shocked by this, it's just the basic principle of diffusion. As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. The standard of living is raising in other countries while lowering in the US. Labor is already getting too expensive in China for cheap goods so companies are beginning to look at other countries for cheap labor, or bring manufacturing back to the US and us automation to make up the difference. The US really has no incentive to allow this to happen. We have the largest market in the world and could very easily do what China does if other countries want access to it. The US allows anybody into our markets while China bends them over the bargaining table requiring them to give up IP and form joint ventures with Chinese companies. What incentive does the US have to do "fair" trade? We have all the leverage in any negotiation but for years haven't used that leverage. At some point we're going to have to or the citizens are going to either rebel or accept lower standard of living, lower income, and lower life expectancy. I'm starting to believe that the reason Washington DC does nothing about the opioid crisis is because it benefits them. If thousands of unemployed, heavily armed rust belt men were not strung out and dying from addiction they probably would have organized and marched on DC a long time ago and got payback on the politicians who have sold them out for personal gain.

baxtr 9y ago
What’s your hypothesis that this is not happening elsewhere then? Let’s say in Germany. Free trade there as well...
- galieos_ghost 9y ago
  Germany has been called out many times for boosting trade by manipulating the Euro. They also have stronger unions which plays a roll. They also don't have millions of illegal immigrants with no federal labor protection driving wages down internally. https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/05/26/trump-right-about-germany-trade-000445 https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/05/26/trump-right...
  - 9y ago

ekidd 9y ago

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift operations overseas and put downward pressure on wages of less-skilled Americans. There's an obvious capitalistic answer to this problem: If you're "crying out" for labor, then you may need to offer more money. This will encourage more people to work, or to acquire the skills you want—look at all those coding bootcamps, for example. Claiming that there's a labor shortage and downward pressure on wages is an extraordinary claim, and it requires a detailed explanation. Otherwise, the obvious assumption is that somebody wants specialized skills for below-market prices. If markets are good at one thing, it's adjusting prices to balance supply and demand.

kmonsen 9y ago
We see this all the time in tech, cannot find people is usually cannot find people with the skills and experience we want for the price we are willing to pay. This will always be true if you offer less than the current market rate which startups seems to think they are entitled to.
- whereismypwd 9y ago
  I saw an ad here a few days ago on HN for a "Lead ML Researcher" for $85-100k + 0.5-2%.
  - PunchTornado 9y ago
    Exactly the point. And then people complain about labour shortages in ML.
- icelancer 9y ago
  >> current market rate Many of the new positions being created in startups have no defined market rate, which causes more malinvestment (overpaying workers who don't produce well enough) or shortage of labor due to insufficient perceived compensation. Businesses will almost always err on the side of shortage of labor and keeping costs down when they can (though you could argue otherwise in the current ridiculous VC-backed industry), so this will always be a "problem" in the market.

yusuke10 9y ago

On the one hand, US is doing great. US grew 3% annualized last year, on a base of 19T, the most in the world. That's very impressive considering how big the base is to even have such a big percentage. You can compare that to China, where they had to keep reporting a fake 7% growth despite their provinces confessing to a 20-30% fake revenue. In the last 40 years, America's middle class shrank 7%. However, the lower middle class shrank 7% as well, and the upper middle class grew 16%. (http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/21/news/economy/upper-middle-class/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/21/news/economy/upper-middle-cl...) . Implying that alot of the lower middle and middle had moved up. Especially in certain cities like San Francisco or Santa Clara, where there is just an abundance of $130k+/year jobs (and contrary to popular belief, one can easily save $50-60k/year by renting a room in a house at $1000/month). On the other hand, it seems like the lower class has barely budged, and has remained in place and their quality of life has suffered. They have been losing manufacturing jobs to China and other countries (20M at the height in 1970, 12M currently http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/07/news/economy/us-manufacturing-jobs/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/07/news/economy/us-manufacturin...). However, now with an administration dedicated to bringing jobs back from overseas (with focus on manufacturing), and enacting tariffs on countries that competes by flooding the market and destroying local competition, the jobs for lower class should be growing starting this year. The current solar/washing machine tariff, and upcoming steel and aluminum tariffs against China should help.

humanrebar 9y ago
> and contrary to popular belief, one can easily save $50-60k/year by renting a room in a house at $1000/month What if you have a family?

tomohawk 9y ago

I personally know several people who are no longer competitive in various jobs due to the massive influx of illegal immigrants. These are tradesmen, landscapers, and others who used to be able to support their families and live in the area. Many of them now commute long distances (so they can live in lower cost areas) for far less pay. Their children are not following them into these jobs. And its not because they're unwilling to do the work. They're priced out because their own government is unwilling to protect them from these predatory practices.

hycaria 9y ago
So how do the immigrants manage to go by and live with the same wage?
- tomohawk 9y ago
  They're committing document and identity fraud and dodging taxes. They're breaking housing laws by living multiple unrelated people (beyond legal capacity) per dwelling. We just had 9 illegal aliens evicted from a 2BR house not too far away. Good for them (probably a step up from 3rd world conditions), but bad if you want to maintain some quality of life.
  - walshemj 9y ago
    And in even worse cases being held as indentured slaves - there have been a number of cases in the UK involving poor migrants from former WP countries in the EU, Id imagine the USA is no different.
  - elinmigrante 9y ago
    Your first sentence is a bit of an oxymoron. Allow me to explain. Without resorting to identity fraud, its nearly impossible for undocumented immigrants to find work because most employers require a social security number for payroll purposes. Even though they use a fake identity, they still get a paycheck, they still pay payroll taxes and pay into Medicare and Social Security. However, they get none of the benefits. Undocumented immigrants have no other choice but to commit identity fraud. Unfortunately for them, its a necessary evil. Their intent is not to dodge taxes. I'm not saying all undocumented immigrants pay taxes but most are not opposed to it. A little google search will bring up plenty of research into this topic. http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2016/oct/02/maria-teresa-kumar/how-much-do-undocumented-immigrants-pay-taxes/ http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2016/oct/02/... https://itep.org/wp-content/uploads/undocumentedtaxes.pdf https://itep.org/wp-content/uploads/undocumentedtaxes.pdf To your point about them breaking housing laws, all I can say is that its true but this isn't something that is limited to undocumented immigrants. Just take a look at the hacker houses in the bay. Maybe what is needed is more affordable housing. I see where you're coming from but blaming undocumented immigrants for lowering the quality of life is a disservice. The US benefits immensely from undocumented immigrants but its something few want to admit.

asdffdsa 9y ago

There has to be a point where mere unemployment isn't stigmitized. Of course, being lazy, unproductive, and at worst destructive has to be condemned/disincentivized, but the association of unemployment to unproductive and from unproductive to some sense of worthlessness/leeching has to be amended in our society. Whether it's UBI, an increase in non-profits, and/or a proliferation of diverse and meaningful government funded projects (arts, public works, infrastructure), there are many ways to put people to meaningful work and utility besides working for a for-profit corporation. I think overcoming the stress induced by higher unemployment produced by automation will be one of the biggest societal challenges America (and beyond) will face in the coming decades. The outdated, 20th century model of work hard (for a company) -> be happy/fulfilled/successful will change. Ultimately, I think automation is for the best: let humans do what they do best (be creative, think abstractly, form and implement new models of the world/society/some concept, learn/iterate/improve/adapt) and let machines do what they do best ([generally speaking] automated tasks that require little improvisation or flexibility).

CryptoPunk 9y ago
Living on handouts or at the taxpayer's expense is not dignified or sustainable, and should be discouraged. A fruitful strategy in my opinion would be to encourage people to become financially self-reliant from passive sources of income, to the point of not requiring employment income, by building up their capital, and looking at the interventions done by the government that impede capital formation, especially for those starting from nothing, like: * licensing restrictions that exclude amateurs and small businesses from participating in various industries (e.g. securities laws that prevent non-public-companies and unaccredited investors from issuing stock to the public and buying stock from non-public companies, respectively) * occupational licensing * high tax burdens * government deficits crowding out lending to the private sector * zoning restrictions causing housing costs in core economic regions to increase

whataretensors 9y ago

I'm in my prime and relatively competent. The reason I'm broke working on my own startup and not at a company is because every company or successful project I've been a part of has not led to my success as an individual. FTE at a startup is high risk low reward. You might think with funding a startup is not high risk. It is. You are giving up the huge salary you'd get a a megacorp. And don't even get me started on the common stock issue. FTE at a megacorp is medium risk medium reward. Not high enough reward until you get to the higher levels - difficult to do. And also the dull monotone reward signal of direct deposit every two weeks is so incredibly boring. So now I'm left bootstrapping. The only thing left with high reward. It's hard. My insurance sucks. Trying to work with other companies is obnoxious. Every app store takes 30% and thinks they have employees without the paperwork. One app store I built something for requested(demanded) never ending meaningless changes then released a copy of my idea without telling me. It wasn't even that good of an idea in retrospect. The game is rigged and not optional. People everywhere hate rigged games.

scilro 9y ago

>Higher minimum wages are probably another cause. >After declining in inflation-adjusted terms from 1998 to 2007, minimum wages rose almost 11% in real terms between 2007 and 2016, Abraham and Kearney estimated. Firms may have outsourced jobs or spent more on automation to offset the higher costs of low-skilled labor. Is it just me, or is this a shockingly misleading paragraph? That minimum wages rose in real terms tells us nothing. They may have kept in place with inflation, or they may have even continued to fall in inflation-adjusted terms. This is not an apples-to-apples comparison at all.

arebop 9y ago
"inflation-adjusted terms" and "real terms" are the same thing. The author was trying to avoid repetition but the only contrast intended here is between the earlier decline and later rise.
tuckermi 9y ago
It seems confusingly worded, but "real terms" does typically mean that it is adjusted for inflation. Assuming that is the case, it is apples-to-apples even though it is oddly phrased.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
refurb 9y ago
Real terms means inflation adjusted. Nominal means just the rate ignoring inflation.
- scilro 9y ago
  Thanks, all. I thought that "real" was the same thing as nominal.
stochastastic 9y ago
I don’t think this is misleading; in economics parlance “real” terms means inflation adjusted. Perhaps you are thinking of “nominal” terms, which would not be?

will_brown 9y ago

I can squeeze myself into that group due to long extents of unemployment in my prime years and I: - graduated college early - graduated law school early - was a judicial law school - co-developed and sold a patent pending business method for the automated calculation of fees in statutory litigation In my specific case, especially in law, one thing holds me back (essentially placing me on a do not hire blacklist) I have a blemish on my criminal record for a possession of marijuana charge when I was 21 years old. Law is an old school industry that doesn’t generally overlook that type of thing, I even had 1 interview end immediately right when that was asked/disclosed during the interview itself. But even outside of Law I have applied to hundreds of jobs without ever getting interviews, I have applied to all the tech companies (in legal positions) without an interview. I have probably even applied to a dozen or so YC companies and never a single interview, YC even invested in a start up that is supposed to help people with criminal records get jobs and I reached out for assistance and was told they couldn’t assist me. This brings me to my second point, like there are “blacklists” and policies against candidates with criminal records, there are just plain old blacklists and I bet most of this 3.5 million are on them. It’s not just People with criminal records either, people with poor credit are on blacklists, people with employment gaps are on blacklists. These blacklists are both internal company policies but also in some cases real shared lists between recruiters and other lists HR checks. I’ll personally be alright because I can make money without a job but most can’t and need traditional emoloyment. And they will never get a job because they are in in this endless cycle of employment gap and poor finances (bad credit) that can never be rehabilitated because of mindless policy. This also explains a class of people ready and willing to be exploited in the gig economy.

k_sh 9y ago
It sounds like you're probably located in CA, have you looked into getting that possession taken off of your record, assuming the charge was in CA? The statewide legalization effort yielded[0] a provision that allows for review and possible expungement of marijuana-related charges. [0]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/convicted-of-a-marijuana-crime-in-california-it-might-go-away-thanks-to-legal-pot/2017/12/17/1e9a2564-d90f-11e7-b859-fb0995360725_story.html?utm_term=.66f3e3d7c9d7 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/convicted-of-a-marij...

mythrwy 9y ago

There's a lot of challenges, automation, globalization, immigration, poor schooling, poor family life, discrimination, clueless human resource departments, unjust stigma from encounters with criminal justice system. All these things are issues, part of the reason many people can't work. With all that in mind, some (largish?) percentage of people not working are simply unemployable. As in, they won't be able to do a job. Or they will make more trouble than they will put out so are net negative to have employed and thus don't stay employed. I don't know what can be done about this, probably feed them and call it good. Not sure everyone is owed a job, at least the way the system is set up now.

mcguire 9y ago

Next on tonight's news: disability cheats, the millions of Americans who could work, but don't. Yep, I'm a cynic. Then, there's this: "After declining in inflation-adjusted terms from 1998 to 2007, minimum wages rose almost 11% in real terms between 2007 and 2016, Abraham and Kearney estimated. Firms may have outsourced jobs or spent more on automation to offset the higher costs of low-skilled labor." I was unaware there were many minimum wage jobs that could be outsourced or replaced. Most are in the service industries, right?

zaroth 9y ago

I didn’t read the study, but an even bigger factor than SSDI is Medicaid expansion. Free insurance with no co-pays and deductibles is worth a lot of money if you consume any healthcare services, and you can only get it if you don’t earn more than 140% FPL.

dragonwriter 9y ago
> Free insurance with no co-pays and deductibles is worth a lot of money if you consume any healthcare services, and you can only get it if you don’t work. The Medicaid expansion population is up to 138% of Federal Poverty Level, so it's not “available only if you don't work”, and the vast majority of states participating in the expansion impose cost sharing requirements (which work like deductibles, though at least the ones I know well are monthly rather than annual), so it's mostly not “with no copay or deductible”.
- DrScump 9y ago
  The Medicaid population excludes those who pay any portion of subsidized ACA policies, even when the subsidy is 95+% (e.g. paying $10/month for a Bronze policy with the taxpayers paying the other $500+).
  - dragonwriter 9y ago
    > The Medicaid population excludes those who pay any portion of subsidized ACA policies The ACA subsidy minimum income in Medicaid expansion states is the exact minimum amount that fails to qualify for Medicaid expansion in the first place, so such an exclusion is irrelevant to the expansion population (the ACA minimum is lower—100% of FPL—in states that don't expand Medicaid, but that's obviously immaterial to the effect of Medicaid expansion.) Medicaid cost sharing is, in case you are unclear, also a completely different thing than the recipient paying a subsidized ACA premium, it's being on Medicaid and paying the first $N/month for Medicaid services, where N is income dependent, out of pocket.

purplezooey 9y ago

3.5 million Americans could either be at work today or looking for jobs. That would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor. Yeah right. It's my experience that companies do not care about picking up anyone who is not already perfectly tailored for the role needed. If that person hasn't been found, the req just sits there. Sometimes for a year or more. That there is some "unfilled gap" of jobs is a fallacy.

hisforehead 9y ago

I'm one of these, it sucks. Several career starts failed, having to rebuild again.