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Arctic temperatures soar 25 degrees above normal in the dead of winter
- 52-6F-62 9y agoAnecdotal: Here in Toronto, it's been 16˚C this past week. In February. We've had about 2 or 3 real snowfalls that stuck around for a few days before melting. As somebody who loves ice skating outside, it's really frustrating. And I love the snow. Every year it seems like the winter gets a little milder...
- bretthopper 9y ago> it's been 16˚C this past week One single day hit 16 at the max. Another hit ~14. That's a very generous way of looking at our weather this winter. This has been a much snowier winter than last year as well (and some others of recent memory). Yes it's been unusual to have the final 2 weeks of February average above 0 during the day. Both December and January were very cold with a monthly mean temp of -5˚C (ref: http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=51459 http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?...). By mid-January there were a ton of stories in the media about how cold our winter had been and various records had been set. Everyone in the city was complaining about this winter for most of it (until recently). Example: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/fourteen-cold-hard-facts-about-torontos-frigidweather/article37491737/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/fourteen-cold-h...
- fleitz 9y agoHere in Vancouver, we just got a foot of snow.
- lostmsu 9y agoAnecdotal: its unusually cold in Seattle this winter. So goes both ways.
- dsfyu404ed 9y ago>Every year it seems like the winter gets a little milder... yes it does.
- JohnTHaller 9y agoAnecdotal: 3 days ago it hit 78˚F/25.6˚C here in NYC, the hottest ever recorded for Feb 21 and ever recorded for all of Feb. The previous record for Feb 21 was 68˚F/20˚C in 1930. The previous hottest day in all of February was 75˚F/23.9˚C in 1985. The average high temp for NYC in Feb is usually 44˚F/6.7˚C. This year it's 49˚F/9.4˚C.
- toasterlovin 9y agoFWIW, a 30 year gap between record highs is not supportive of global warming. Global warming should be making record weather events more common, which would imply records being broken in rapid succession.
- martinpw 9y ago> Global warming should be making record weather events more common Not necessarily. If there was no long term warming trend, records would become less common over time, since they would be weather-related random values and there are more previous year data points to compare against. A warming trend would act counter to that effect, but not necessarily overcome it.
- toasterlovin 9y agoYeah, but we haven’t been measuring temperatures for that long.
- manmal 9y agoIt seems the cold moved to central Europe, giving us -15 degrees celsius at night in the upcoming week.
- davidw 9y agoSome of it's here on the west coast of the US too. It hit -18C here in central Oregon the other day, and has been snowing a bunch.
- iliis 9y agoIt seems that this is directly caused by the arctic temperature rise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming Relevant quote: Following a sudden stratospheric warming, the high altitude winds reverse to flow eastward instead of their usual westward. The eastward winds progress down through the atmosphere and weaken the jet stream, often giving easterly winds near the surface and resulting in dramatic reductions in temperature in Europe. see also (in german): http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/home/aktuell/meteoschweiz-blog/meteoschweiz-blog.subpage.html/de/data/blogs/2018/2/sibirische-kaelte-kommt-.html http://www.meteoschweiz.admin.ch/home/aktuell/meteoschweiz-b...
- DCoder 9y agoAnd some of us in Eastern Europe are expecting -24 °C .
- jpindar 9y agoAnecdotal: New Hampshire has experienced both record breaking high temperatures (> 70˚F) and record breaking low temperatures (< -10˚F) this winter. Either one might be just, eh, we're having a warm or cold winter. Both within two months is weird. It snowed the day after it was 75˚F.
- 52-6F-62 9y agoThat's how it's happened here. Another commenter mentioned that while we've had such highs, we've also experienced record lows. What they didn't associate was how they have come back-to-back. It's rather usual for a northerly place like Calgary to go from -20˚ to +20˚ Celsius (or the reverse) over the course of a day due to Chinook winds from the mountains. They're really quite a sight if there are any clouds—you can watch the wall of whatever front is blowing in. In Ontario, it's rather unusual for the same kind of phenomenon, and we've experienced it multiple times this winter.
- bitL 9y agoDidn't the same happen last year, with arctic polar region being warmer than sub-arctic latitudes? Maybe it's the new normal climate or at least semi-persistent like El Niño?
- igravious 9y agoIt actually says so in the article, “This next batch of abnormally warm air is forecast to shoot the gap between Greenland and northern Europe through the Greenland and Barents seas. Similar circumstances occurred in December 2016, when the temperature at the North Pole last flirted with the melting point in the dark, dead of winter. Similarly large jumps in temperature were documented in November 2016 and December 2015.” It happens every year? Therefore it's not unusual. So that makes this, “This latest huge temperature spike in the Arctic is another striking indicator of its rapidly transforming climate.”, uh, what?
- boardwaalk 9y agoA few years of this does not make it normal. While we're quoting the article: > These kinds of temperature anomalies in the Arctic have become commonplace in winter in the past few years. Implying they haven't been in the past.
- igravious 9y ago> A few years of this does not make it normal. I wasn't implying that. > Implying they haven't been in the past. Nor that. My only intention was to agree with the original commenter that the title and start of the article made it sound like this one event was a complete anomaly. Later on we find out that, no, this has been happening for a while. If it is not an anomaly then we need to know how frequently this temperature spike happens. Multiple times during the winter? Has it been spiking only in the last few years. How anomalous is it? Am I not allowed ask these questions?
- fyfy18 9y agoAnother commenter posted a link to climate data from the Danish Meteorological Institute for the artic region for the past 50 years: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php For most of the dataset the winter temperatures have followed the model fairly well (of course there are spikes), but for the last few years the winter temperature has been significantly higher than the model.
- briga 9y agoUsing events like this to illustrate that global warming is happening is about as scientifically significant as when Trump used the recent US cold snap to imply that global warming isn't happening. I'm not saying climate change doesn't exist--it certainly does--but outlying events like this aren't by themselves particularly unusual. "Normal", after all, is at the top of a bell curve, and deviations from normal should be expected.
- discoursism 9y agoI don't know global warming is happening because of this news article. This news article worries me because I know global warming is happening.
- vixen99 9y agoHow does the 'I know' bit advance the discussion?
- aaomidi 9y agoThe discussion isn't about whether we know it's happening or not. We should stop letting deniers move the goal posts. The discussion is we know this is happening, what do we do to stop it?
- skywhopper 9y agoAt some point, it's silly to expect every comment to make a full and comprehensive argument. Like how I can worry about something falling from the sky because "I know" gravity exists. So when I see something straight above your head growing larger coming straight towards you as it falls, I know it will not change course, and I don't feel the need to explain general relativity to you before I suggest you ought to get out of the way.
- discoursism 9y agoI don't understand what you mean by "advance the discussion."
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- golergka 9y agoHow much statistical significance can have an anomaly that lasts only 24 hours?
- yequalsx 9y agoSuppose you know for a fact that this place has never experienced such an an event like this over the last x years with x a large number. Furthermore you have strong evidence the Earth is warming. Then this happens. Such an observation can be significant. It depends on the situation. I don’t know if this event qualifies. I don’t know enough but someone who studies the issue made the tweet. To his trained eye this was noteworthy. Not proof but noteworthy.
- rm999 9y agoNote that this is in Celsius - for us Americans, this is 45 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
- darrenf 9y ago25°c is 77°f, not 45.
- CardenB 9y agoyeah this is referring to how high it is above normal, not actually 25 degrees celsius. there was a delta of 45 deg Fahrenheit.
- nanodeath 9y agoKinda...but you want 77 - 32 (which is 45).
- STRML 9y agoThat's not how converting relative Celsius to Fahrenheit works. If I say "it's 10 degrees Celsius colder today than yesterday", that's the same as saying "it's 18 degress Fahrenheit today".
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- darrenf 9y agoOops oops yes, mea culpa. Note to self: avoid (posting to) HN after a few drinks. Thanks to all those who corrected me.
- netsharc 9y agoREDACTED: No.. not oops. He's wrong, you're right. Ah why did you reply to your own comment instead of pressing edit. I thought you were the grandparent poster replying to the correction. God damnit.
- 9y ago
- KamiCrit 9y agoGood article but I really wish they'd stick to one unit of measurement. And the world standard measurement at that. Was hard from the beginning to understand the severity of the situation with no units denoted.
- fleitz 9y agoYes, chinooks are common in freezing areas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinook_wind https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinook_wind
- meri_dian 9y agoWarmer temperatures will mean we may need to change where we farm our food and move some cities but it's much better than things getting colder. It may even be better than the current climate, given it may actually increase the amount of land where food is arable.
- outsidetheparty 9y agoSure, just a simple little matter of rearranging our entire food supply; relocating at least 39% of the US population, not to mention a few hundred million residents of China, India, Bangladesh, etc.; decades or centuries of turbulent and unpredictable weather (hurricanes are so exciting!); massive ecological upheaval during which most species on earth either have to migrate to new habitats, evolve, or go extinct (and don't forget it'll be the shortest-lifespan creatures that will adapt most quickly to their new circumstances -- so goodbye trees, hello swarms of insects!) Sure. Great idea. Brilliant. Why wouldn't we welcome it?
- pedalpete 9y agoThough I don't "welcome global warming", I think this is a good point of debate. The comparison to "getting colder" isn't really valid, as it is not the only option. Most people would like things to stay the same. Perhaps we should be looking at what temperature would be the most beneficial to the planet as a whole. If we were to create a new earth, what would be the ideal temperature, how would we manage it, where is that in comparison to where we are now, how can we get there. Is it a dangerous question? probably.
- pharrington 9y agoSince human cognition is based from previous cognitive state and interpretation of sensory input, precise communication requires mapping the communicative symbols as closely as possible to your desired semantics. Earth itself will do just fine at any temperature that's below literally evaporating. Various life on this planet has evolved to thrive in wildly disparate climates, and short of complete eradication of an ecosystem, surviving organisms both tend towards better suitability for their given environment and adapt their environment towards better suitability for them (both with limits). We humans should be looking at what temperature ranges would be the most beneficial to human society as a whole. Sure, that's incredibly self biased, but as a human, I contend that's an incredibly useful bias to have.
- poster123 9y agoDoesn't warming of the coldest parts of the world mean there will be more usable land? I have read that global warming could have benefits for countries such as Russia.
- pishpash 9y agoToo bad Russia has no people to use it with.
- gilbetron 9y agoWe have plenty of "usable" land - valuable land is another matter, and the land that will be revealed isn't particularly valuable, at least not for decades, if not centuries. Furthermore, the melting itself will cause immense damage both by raising water levels and releasing all the crap (methane, primarily) that's in it.
- zasz 9y agoThere will be a net loss to global agriculture for a couple reasons: 1. Climate change implies increased variability in weather--hotter summers, wetter winters. Agriculture does best in a relatively stable environment. Just look at California--extremely wet winters followed by extremely hot wildfires. It's hard for a species to thrive in a very wide variety of conditions. Not impossible, of course, with humanity being the crowning example of that kind of flexibility, but it's harder for an annual grain like wheat, rice, or corn to pull off. 2. Less sun at northern and southern latitudes mean a shorter growing season. There are a few other reasons I can think of for why yields will generally drop, among them ozone pollution, but they're not related to climate change specifically.
- allthenews 9y agoClimate evolves over scales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years. It is frustrating to see fellow geoscientists use some 100 years of anomalous temperature data as absolute proof of permanent catastrophic change. Having read parts of the official IPCC report, there are still significant holes all the way down to the treatment of the woefully incomplete data used to draw admittedly uncertain conclusions. The picture is nowhere near as certain as many have been lead to believe, and it is difficult for me to take climate change reporting seriously, because as soon as one moves past published literature, the concept of uncertainty is abandoned for politicized groupthink. Now, it is not unreasonable to assume that something is happening. And, given the chance that it is not transient, it makes sense to hedge our bets and reduce emissions. However, even here I hesitate because of an almost total void of literature discussing the potential benefits of a warmer earth. Such is the curse of taboo.
- bornonline1 9y agoClimate works slowly when there aren't a billion cars and other industry. A visible analogy is the reduction of animals and plants due to human activity. A warmer weather is an 'unknown'. We have trouble with EVERYTHING. We hardly know anything atm with the stable environment so a whole new challenge of future planet might be just to much. It is already to much.
- r721 9y agoRelated post on Arctic Sea Ice Blog: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/02/global-sea-ice-records-broken-yet-again.html http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/02/global-sea-ice-record...
- Jedi72 9y agoThesee graphs show the mean temperature of the arctic for each day of the year for the last 50 years, measured hy the Danish meteorological bureau: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php Last 3 years have been truly crazy.
- Seed-void 9y agoThere is no global warming. Deep Bore Into Antarctica Finds Freezing Ice, Not Melting as Expected | National Geographic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyjt5zpNAeg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyjt5zpNAeg At the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica, scientists used a hot-water drill hose to create a hole through the thick ice until they reached the perpetually dark water. What they found surprised them. Christina Hulbe/University of Otago/K061 Real weather information: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6VhLE7qAeW8NZm6PsXGGrQ/videos https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6VhLE7qAeW8NZm6PsXGGrQ/vid...
- grecy 9y agoAnecdotal: I live in Whitehorse, Yukon. For reference I drive due South to Alaska. The weather here is nothing, and I mean nothing like it used to be. It would reliably be -40 for all of Jan and Feb in the past. The river would freeze to the point of holding the massive festival ON the river with cars, tents, thousands of people ,etc. The river has not frozen for a decade, it regularly goes above freezing in Jan and Feb, and even some of the mighty lakes up here don't freeze enough that you want to walk on them. The ice used to be so think my 4 ft. ice auger wasn't long enough to let me ice fish.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- thisacctforreal 9y agoWe still have the Yukon Sourdough Rendezvous festival, it's just on land now. It's actually happening this weekend! It's always the last full weekend in February, in case our city piques your interest ;) http://www.northofordinary.com/winter_rendezvous http://www.northofordinary.com/winter_rendezvous Anecdotally, I've also heard from a couple of farmers that the wind up here is different than it was in the '70s.
- grecy 9y agohaha, I'm away right now, but I live in Whitehorse, I've been to Rendezvous many, many times :) My first year it didn't get above -40... daytime high temps :)
- tonyarkles 9y agoTwo Yukoners in the thread! I'm way further south in Regina, but it's good to see Canadians who aren't from Vancouver or Toronto! And as a crazy question, given that there's only a population of 25k in Whitehorse... what's the tech scene like? :)
- thr0awaz 9y ago
- yodsanklai 9y agoI see three common attitudes towards global warming. A. It's BS, there's no such thing. B. It's happening, but it's no big deal, we'll solve this problem thanks to growth and innovation. C. It's happening, we need to do something about it. A and B are instance of cognitive dissonance. I'm in category C. I would be in favor of any measure that could help reducing the risk even if it decreases greatly my comfort. But I don't see this happening. Even small harmless restrictions are not taken. Try to tell people that they should drive smaller and less powerful cars for instance. But maybe the rational attitude to have (which is less heard) is to stop caring as we're not going to solve this anyway. We're not going to solve our mortality problem either and we don't worry too much about this. Future generations will have it harder than we had (climate change, pollution and resources depletion) but why should we worry about them (esp. if we don't have kids)? It's not like we really care about miserable people living now.