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As a counter point: What if your old 2006 car decides to die while you're going 60+ on the highway because it's old, and you die because it doesn't have as many

by DSMan195276 9y ago

As a counter point: What if your old 2006 car decides to die while you're going 60+ on the highway because it's old, and you die because it doesn't have as many safety features as newer cars do? I mean, I get where you're coming from, I share some of the same worries you do, but the reality is that there is already hard evidence that newer cars are tons safer then older cars. It's really not clear to me that you can conclude that the chance of your new car deciding to kill you because of a software update/issue is a higher risk then the one you're taking by driving an old car. All of the examples you've given are more or less one-off events with newer cars, and they are serious, but people die every day in crashes with old cars that they could have survived or could have been prevented completely with a newer car with better safety features.

matwood 9y ago
>What if your old 2006 car decides to die while you're going 60+ on the highway because it's old, and you die because it doesn't have as many safety features as newer cars do? Is there some middle ground? My 2007 Toyota Tundra drives fine, and has few software components (certainly nothing that is updating OTA). Is the 2018 really that much safer than 2007? Even the body style was only updated a couple of years ago.
- DSMan195276 9y ago
  > Is the 2018 really that much safer than 2007? Yes. The raw stats show that newer cars half around a 50% reduction in fatal accidents. You can find the stats here[0], but the relevant information is below (Sorry the formatting isn't great. You can find this exact chart from the linked page, the important point is that the numbers are about half of what they were): Occupant deaths per million registered passenger vehicles 1-3 years old, 1978-2016 Year Drivers All occupants Cars Pickups SUVs All passenger vehicles Cars Pickups SUVs All passenger vehicles 2006 77 101 49 73 112 137 74 106 2007 70 95 44 67 104 128 69 99 2008 65 87 35 61 92 114 52 85 2009 57 63 25 49 82 83 36 69 2010 49 64 20 43 71 80 29 61 2011 43 49 17 37 62 66 24 52 2012 42 44 16 35 61 56 23 49 2013 41 39 19 34 58 52 26 48 2014 37 38 18 32 53 47 24 44 2015 42 40 20 35 62 52 29 51 2016 43 39 21 35 63 48 32 51 A lot of things are simple, like standard back-up cameras. Newer cars also have stronger frames and more air bags (Especially side airbags, which your car almost definitely lacks). One feature in particular, ESC[1][2], is probably not on your car but is mandatory for all cars 2012 and later, and IIHS estimated in 2006 that if the feature was standard on every car it would prevent as much as 1/3 of all fatal crashes each year (And of course, the above charts don't disagree with this estimate). [0] http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/passenger-vehicles http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalit... [1] http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/electronic-stability-control-could-prevent-nearly-one-third-of-all-fatal-crashes-and-reduce-rollover-risk-by-as-much-as-80-effect-is-found-on-single-and-multiple-vehicle-crashes http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/electronic-stabili... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#Effectiveness https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#E...
  - ken 9y ago
    "50% reduction" sounds impressive, but it starts to lose meaning when cars are already so safe. These are pretty low numbers, out of a million. My annual survival chances go from 99.993% to 99.997%, which is great on a population scale but essentially meaningless on a personal one. For age groups 25-64, car accidents aren't even the most deadly type of accidental injury: accidental poisoning has twice the fatality rate [1]. If this were a software system and I proposed buying a newer car, my manager would be annoyed at me for micro-optimizing the wrong thing. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_injury_deaths_unintentional_injury_2015_1050w760h.gif https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_o...

matwood 9y ago

>What if your old 2006 car decides to die while you're going 60+ on the highway because it's old, and you die because it doesn't have as many safety features as newer cars do? Is there some middle ground? My 2007 Toyota Tundra drives fine, and has few software components (certainly nothing that is updating OTA). Is the 2018 really that much safer than 2007? Even the body style was only updated a couple of years ago.

DSMan195276 9y ago
> Is the 2018 really that much safer than 2007? Yes. The raw stats show that newer cars half around a 50% reduction in fatal accidents. You can find the stats here[0], but the relevant information is below (Sorry the formatting isn't great. You can find this exact chart from the linked page, the important point is that the numbers are about half of what they were): Occupant deaths per million registered passenger vehicles 1-3 years old, 1978-2016 Year Drivers All occupants Cars Pickups SUVs All passenger vehicles Cars Pickups SUVs All passenger vehicles 2006 77 101 49 73 112 137 74 106 2007 70 95 44 67 104 128 69 99 2008 65 87 35 61 92 114 52 85 2009 57 63 25 49 82 83 36 69 2010 49 64 20 43 71 80 29 61 2011 43 49 17 37 62 66 24 52 2012 42 44 16 35 61 56 23 49 2013 41 39 19 34 58 52 26 48 2014 37 38 18 32 53 47 24 44 2015 42 40 20 35 62 52 29 51 2016 43 39 21 35 63 48 32 51 A lot of things are simple, like standard back-up cameras. Newer cars also have stronger frames and more air bags (Especially side airbags, which your car almost definitely lacks). One feature in particular, ESC[1][2], is probably not on your car but is mandatory for all cars 2012 and later, and IIHS estimated in 2006 that if the feature was standard on every car it would prevent as much as 1/3 of all fatal crashes each year (And of course, the above charts don't disagree with this estimate). [0] http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/passenger-vehicles http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalit... [1] http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/electronic-stability-control-could-prevent-nearly-one-third-of-all-fatal-crashes-and-reduce-rollover-risk-by-as-much-as-80-effect-is-found-on-single-and-multiple-vehicle-crashes http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/electronic-stabili... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#Effectiveness https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#E...
- ken 9y ago
  "50% reduction" sounds impressive, but it starts to lose meaning when cars are already so safe. These are pretty low numbers, out of a million. My annual survival chances go from 99.993% to 99.997%, which is great on a population scale but essentially meaningless on a personal one. For age groups 25-64, car accidents aren't even the most deadly type of accidental injury: accidental poisoning has twice the fatality rate [1]. If this were a software system and I proposed buying a newer car, my manager would be annoyed at me for micro-optimizing the wrong thing. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_injury_deaths_unintentional_injury_2015_1050w760h.gif https://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_o...