3 ms·

Just like you had to learn Japanese in the 1980s?

nopinsight 9y ago
Just imagine a country about as rich as Japan (or even just half as rich on the per capita basis) but with 10 times more people. How would that change the power balance in the world?
- HumanDrivenDev 9y ago
  How can China become as rich as Japan? What makes China so different that it can escape the middle income trap? Their economic data is so doctored we aren't even sure how rich they are now.
  - cabalamat 9y ago
    > Their economic data is so doctored Yes it is. However, there clearly has been very significant economic change there in recent decades.
    - HumanDrivenDev 9y ago
      I'm certainly not denying that. I would just argue caution in jumping to far fetched conclusions, like China will become a superpower so we should all learn Mandarin.
      - cabalamat 9y ago
        China is already a superpower.
        HumanDrivenDev 9y ago
        The USA was a superpower. The USSR was a superpower. The British Empire was a super power. China is nowhere near those levels. Again, people want to buy into the narrative.
      - intended 9y ago
        China is already a super power. I don’t know why it escapes attention, but China has the power to regularly bully their neighbors, have pretty much annexed territory, their ships raid protected regions for fish, they have massive diplomatic programs and trillions they spend on funding it - none of which has any challengers in the diplomatic space. Do note they also have their own space stations. In essence China has learnt from the western lessons and converted the parts that work for it. I don’t understand why HN is unwilling to countenance this, but let me put it this way - Can America afford to antagonize China ? As for the Japan comparison - Japan is tiny compared to China. Chinese surplus production destroys industries in other nations. Not to mention it has an actual army and navy which is constantly being upgraded. Something which it uses to enforce its geo political will and aims. In contrast - the backbone of American international ability, it’s state department, is unstaffed and seen as the enemy by an administration which thinks that only MBAs can do a job effectively, while everyone else working in the govt must be a leech of resources. Not to mention how many bizarre steps the govt has taken to ensure people look for more stable patrons than the current administration. China has monstrous momentum. edit: I would ideally like a solid and non-wonkish rebuttal of China's ascendance. For example people can highlight debt/finance issues and over capacity in China - and then address how China won't be able to solve it by just exporting to everyone and everywhere.
        HumanDrivenDev 9y ago
        > I don’t understand why HN is unwilling to countenance this, but let me put it this way - Can America afford to antagonize China ? It's antagonising all year round - US military presence in Japan and Korea, continuous arm sales and pushing the envelope on unofficial relations with Taiwan, support of Japans claim to the Senkakus, "Freedom of Navigation" exercises in defiance of chinas maritime claims, opening up military relations with Vietnam. Again, China is not the USSR. There's no "Korean missile crisis" where China can provoke an international crisis if the US decides to park ballistic missiles in its near abroad. There's no equivalent of a Warsaw block. The US has an entanglement of military alliances and relations all around Chinas backyard. China is not a superpower.
        9y ago
  - nopinsight 9y ago
    Science and math education results based on several international tests, real-world results in technologies and innovation, manufacturing prowess, ability to catch up to the best in the world in many technologies in a few short decades. Any countries with such characteristics that are still in middle-income trap after a couple generations of focused development? Possible example of a leapfrog: https://www.insidescience.org/news/china-leader-quantum-communications https://www.insidescience.org/news/china-leader-quantum-comm... Note that I am not pro-China nor any country. I observe the world and comment on what I see.
    - dis-sys 9y ago
      education system? It is a system systemically failed generations of Chinese. Some figures they didn't tell you - 1. 6 out of the 45 classmates in my primary school ever had the chance to finish university level education. 2. those 39 kids who didn't get the chance to study in uni were not stupid or lazy - many of them studied until mid night every day. 3. not talking about some random poor areas in China, talking about tier 1 primary school in Shanghai. not enough fun? sure - now you need to own a $2-3 million apartment in that area so the kids can go to that fancy school to enjoy that mentioned science education. If she/he is lucky to finish master level education, his/her starting salary will be $1.5k per month before tax. what a good start of career! you are right one thing - you are not pro-China, you are China bashing by promoting its most ugly & brutal part.
      - nopinsight 9y ago
        Which years were your classmates in school? I recognize that there were quite a few lost decades for the Chinese. From the figures I see the situation is getting much better now in terms of access but yes the atmosphere is still very competitive and resources and opportunities still need to be expanded.
      - tanilama 9y ago
        According to this news article, there are over 7+ million[1] college grads last year from China, while the enrollment of primary school is between 15-20 millions[2]. So overall, 30%-50% of students made from primary school to college in China. [1]http://hubei.eol.cn/hubeinews/201704/t20170425_1510433.shtml http://hubei.eol.cn/hubeinews/201704/t20170425_1510433.shtml [2]http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_sjzl/s5990/201612/t20161219_292432.html http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_sjzl/s5990/201612/t20161219_292432...

Just imagine a country about as rich as Japan (or even just half as rich on the per capita basis) but with 10 times more people. How would that change the power balance in the world?

HumanDrivenDev 9y ago
How can China become as rich as Japan? What makes China so different that it can escape the middle income trap? Their economic data is so doctored we aren't even sure how rich they are now.
- cabalamat 9y ago
  > Their economic data is so doctored Yes it is. However, there clearly has been very significant economic change there in recent decades.
  - HumanDrivenDev 9y ago
    I'm certainly not denying that. I would just argue caution in jumping to far fetched conclusions, like China will become a superpower so we should all learn Mandarin.
    - cabalamat 9y ago
      China is already a superpower.
      - HumanDrivenDev 9y ago
        The USA was a superpower. The USSR was a superpower. The British Empire was a super power. China is nowhere near those levels. Again, people want to buy into the narrative.
    - intended 9y ago
      China is already a super power. I don’t know why it escapes attention, but China has the power to regularly bully their neighbors, have pretty much annexed territory, their ships raid protected regions for fish, they have massive diplomatic programs and trillions they spend on funding it - none of which has any challengers in the diplomatic space. Do note they also have their own space stations. In essence China has learnt from the western lessons and converted the parts that work for it. I don’t understand why HN is unwilling to countenance this, but let me put it this way - Can America afford to antagonize China ? As for the Japan comparison - Japan is tiny compared to China. Chinese surplus production destroys industries in other nations. Not to mention it has an actual army and navy which is constantly being upgraded. Something which it uses to enforce its geo political will and aims. In contrast - the backbone of American international ability, it’s state department, is unstaffed and seen as the enemy by an administration which thinks that only MBAs can do a job effectively, while everyone else working in the govt must be a leech of resources. Not to mention how many bizarre steps the govt has taken to ensure people look for more stable patrons than the current administration. China has monstrous momentum. edit: I would ideally like a solid and non-wonkish rebuttal of China's ascendance. For example people can highlight debt/finance issues and over capacity in China - and then address how China won't be able to solve it by just exporting to everyone and everywhere.
      - HumanDrivenDev 9y ago
        > I don’t understand why HN is unwilling to countenance this, but let me put it this way - Can America afford to antagonize China ? It's antagonising all year round - US military presence in Japan and Korea, continuous arm sales and pushing the envelope on unofficial relations with Taiwan, support of Japans claim to the Senkakus, "Freedom of Navigation" exercises in defiance of chinas maritime claims, opening up military relations with Vietnam. Again, China is not the USSR. There's no "Korean missile crisis" where China can provoke an international crisis if the US decides to park ballistic missiles in its near abroad. There's no equivalent of a Warsaw block. The US has an entanglement of military alliances and relations all around Chinas backyard. China is not a superpower.
        9y ago
- nopinsight 9y ago
  Science and math education results based on several international tests, real-world results in technologies and innovation, manufacturing prowess, ability to catch up to the best in the world in many technologies in a few short decades. Any countries with such characteristics that are still in middle-income trap after a couple generations of focused development? Possible example of a leapfrog: https://www.insidescience.org/news/china-leader-quantum-communications https://www.insidescience.org/news/china-leader-quantum-comm... Note that I am not pro-China nor any country. I observe the world and comment on what I see.
  - dis-sys 9y ago
    education system? It is a system systemically failed generations of Chinese. Some figures they didn't tell you - 1. 6 out of the 45 classmates in my primary school ever had the chance to finish university level education. 2. those 39 kids who didn't get the chance to study in uni were not stupid or lazy - many of them studied until mid night every day. 3. not talking about some random poor areas in China, talking about tier 1 primary school in Shanghai. not enough fun? sure - now you need to own a $2-3 million apartment in that area so the kids can go to that fancy school to enjoy that mentioned science education. If she/he is lucky to finish master level education, his/her starting salary will be $1.5k per month before tax. what a good start of career! you are right one thing - you are not pro-China, you are China bashing by promoting its most ugly & brutal part.
    - nopinsight 9y ago
      Which years were your classmates in school? I recognize that there were quite a few lost decades for the Chinese. From the figures I see the situation is getting much better now in terms of access but yes the atmosphere is still very competitive and resources and opportunities still need to be expanded.
    - tanilama 9y ago
      According to this news article, there are over 7+ million[1] college grads last year from China, while the enrollment of primary school is between 15-20 millions[2]. So overall, 30%-50% of students made from primary school to college in China. [1]http://hubei.eol.cn/hubeinews/201704/t20170425_1510433.shtml http://hubei.eol.cn/hubeinews/201704/t20170425_1510433.shtml [2]http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_sjzl/s5990/201612/t20161219_292432.html http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_sjzl/s5990/201612/t20161219_292432...