Thanks for the reminder about that selection bias! Then we’ll need to lower the number of total population used to calculate AI-capable natives somewhat. Given

Thanks for the reminder about that selection bias! Then we’ll need to lower the number of total population used to calculate AI-capable natives somewhat. Given data on primary vs secondary school enrollment, the adjustment ratio is about 0.65. That would adjust the relevant population size down to about 0.9 billion. This has been an interesting exploration and shows how hard it is to predict the future given so many factors involved. I still believe the broad-stroke prediction that China will lead in AI-based technologies in 2030 will still come true though.