6 ms·

The most recent thing I have heard about china, repeated by people who man editorial positions in news papers you read, is that China is now the dominant super

The most recent thing I have heard about china, repeated by people who man editorial positions in news papers you read, is that China is now the dominant super power. America just doesn't know it yet. I suspect this is entirely true. And as added ammunition for this article - the poor prime minister, but excellent finance minister of India - Manmohan Singh, focused on the Korean Model a lot earlier on. It influenced the way the Indian markets opened. There's only 1 book written about MMS, and in that book theres a telling interaction, where Manmohan (Much before his days as PM) was upset that the author (then a reporter), didn't mention Manmohan's stance on the Korean model in an article.

candiodari 9y ago
True, but China is also at the very top of it's game, and it's success came at a rather extreme cost. Mind-boggling debt, smog in all the major cities up to LETHAL levels at times (and something like 80% of the time above cancer-in-10-years levels), no army to speak of, legendary levels of corruption (and centuries of history of corruption). And to top it all off, China's labor market is currently the highest it'll be for the next century or so. It's all downhill from here. China's economic dominance through cheap labor is under severe threat, and they're losing. That loss is causing economic unreast (tens of millions of job losses) in the China. China also legendary when it comes to outright lying about their accomplishments. From scientific advancements in Fusion energy to amounts of iron ore in ports, China has been caught lying so often that economists seriously think 80%-90% of government statistics are outright falsified, with often strong arguments about the remaining 10%. Unfortunately, their leadership is equally famous for believing the lies, right up to the point that they marched a fleet of ships under British cannons, with substandard hulls and without ammunition. You see, the general of that fleet had assured them the ammunition was there, several of his officers had written the central government that he was lying. Whichever was the truth, the fleet was devastated, the general survived and wasn't even fired. Thousands of soldiers and something like 40% of the total Chinese navy was lost. Legendary. There are so many things that could go incredibly wrong here. Economists aren't kidding when they say China might start WW3. They might have to.
- Bucephalus355 9y ago
  This. I mean I feel like anyone could make an awesome economy if they were given trillions and trillions of loans, told they could ignore all environmental regulations, and had, at least initially, a bottomless pool of cheap labor with no rights. Of course it looks like they’re “winning”. They will lose, and ultimately it will be a tragedy for the Chinese people when standards of living collapse and the true ability to repress people with modern technology begins to show.
  - emodendroket 9y ago
    > This. I mean I feel like anyone could make an awesome economy if they were given trillions and trillions of loans, told they could ignore all environmental regulations, and had, at least initially, a bottomless pool of cheap labor with no rights. I mean, how is this different from the US or British Industrial Revolutions?
- intended 9y ago
  I've seen reports and documents, but am unable to make head or tails of it. But, extremely credible sources have indicated that 1 in 4 financial transaction takes place in China. People who have been there and work there do not doubt it. Its neighbours rue it, and its massive financial clout are allowing it to make inroads in ways and places once the realm of the US and other first world nations. That money and munition is coming from somewhere.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
fellellor 9y ago
Pity, MMS didn't learn the real lesson from the Korean story, or any other story for that matter: Half measures get you no where. Korean model involved the state putting extreme pressure on the big business houses and at the same time going out of their way to help them as well, with the goal being to become world leaders in their respective sectors by making quality products. Some firms collapse under such weight and others thrive. Instead though Indian companies were encouraged to focus more on exports, they by and large never managed to establish quality and leadership. Also, though they are renowned for mediocrity, they have still managed to capture large parts of the economy, thanks to government compliance. MMS's life has been a saga of half measures, and though people rightly know him as a calm, intelligent man his failure and weakness as a leader will always define him rather than his virtuous character.
refurb 9y ago
China is not yet the dominant super power. Hell, they'd have trouble invading Taiwan. Dominant in the region? Sure, but that's been true since the rise of the Communist party.
- emodendroket 9y ago
  I feel like a lot of the "trouble" they'd have invading Taiwan is the near certainty of US intervention.
  - lopmotr 9y ago
    Yes, which is why they're not the dominant superpower - the US is. Nobody intervened to stop the many US invasions over the past decades and still ongoing. China isn't able to do that except for tiny uninhabited islands.
    - emodendroket 9y ago
      How willing would the US be to take action that would invite a certain Chinese military response? Have we all forgotten how poorly that went during the Korean War, when China was much less industrialized and much poorer than now?
  - refurb 9y ago
    I don't know if it's still true, but not that long ago China didn't have the equipment to even do a mass beach landing. Which would be required to invade Taiwan. They have a strong military manpower wise, but lack the ability to project power in a number of important areas.
    - emodendroket 9y ago
      I tried to look this up, and only found this article, which suggests that an amphibious landing force exists but would currently have trouble dealing with both the American military (under the probably reasonable assumption that the US would come to Taiwan's defense) and also the defenses Taiwan already has: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.35aa43753db9 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/... Not really conclusive, I guess, but I found the article interesting.

candiodari 9y ago

True, but China is also at the very top of it's game, and it's success came at a rather extreme cost. Mind-boggling debt, smog in all the major cities up to LETHAL levels at times (and something like 80% of the time above cancer-in-10-years levels), no army to speak of, legendary levels of corruption (and centuries of history of corruption). And to top it all off, China's labor market is currently the highest it'll be for the next century or so. It's all downhill from here. China's economic dominance through cheap labor is under severe threat, and they're losing. That loss is causing economic unreast (tens of millions of job losses) in the China. China also legendary when it comes to outright lying about their accomplishments. From scientific advancements in Fusion energy to amounts of iron ore in ports, China has been caught lying so often that economists seriously think 80%-90% of government statistics are outright falsified, with often strong arguments about the remaining 10%. Unfortunately, their leadership is equally famous for believing the lies, right up to the point that they marched a fleet of ships under British cannons, with substandard hulls and without ammunition. You see, the general of that fleet had assured them the ammunition was there, several of his officers had written the central government that he was lying. Whichever was the truth, the fleet was devastated, the general survived and wasn't even fired. Thousands of soldiers and something like 40% of the total Chinese navy was lost. Legendary. There are so many things that could go incredibly wrong here. Economists aren't kidding when they say China might start WW3. They might have to.

Bucephalus355 9y ago
This. I mean I feel like anyone could make an awesome economy if they were given trillions and trillions of loans, told they could ignore all environmental regulations, and had, at least initially, a bottomless pool of cheap labor with no rights. Of course it looks like they’re “winning”. They will lose, and ultimately it will be a tragedy for the Chinese people when standards of living collapse and the true ability to repress people with modern technology begins to show.
- emodendroket 9y ago
  > This. I mean I feel like anyone could make an awesome economy if they were given trillions and trillions of loans, told they could ignore all environmental regulations, and had, at least initially, a bottomless pool of cheap labor with no rights. I mean, how is this different from the US or British Industrial Revolutions?
intended 9y ago
I've seen reports and documents, but am unable to make head or tails of it. But, extremely credible sources have indicated that 1 in 4 financial transaction takes place in China. People who have been there and work there do not doubt it. Its neighbours rue it, and its massive financial clout are allowing it to make inroads in ways and places once the realm of the US and other first world nations. That money and munition is coming from somewhere.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

fellellor 9y ago

Pity, MMS didn't learn the real lesson from the Korean story, or any other story for that matter: Half measures get you no where. Korean model involved the state putting extreme pressure on the big business houses and at the same time going out of their way to help them as well, with the goal being to become world leaders in their respective sectors by making quality products. Some firms collapse under such weight and others thrive. Instead though Indian companies were encouraged to focus more on exports, they by and large never managed to establish quality and leadership. Also, though they are renowned for mediocrity, they have still managed to capture large parts of the economy, thanks to government compliance. MMS's life has been a saga of half measures, and though people rightly know him as a calm, intelligent man his failure and weakness as a leader will always define him rather than his virtuous character.

refurb 9y ago

China is not yet the dominant super power. Hell, they'd have trouble invading Taiwan. Dominant in the region? Sure, but that's been true since the rise of the Communist party.

emodendroket 9y ago
I feel like a lot of the "trouble" they'd have invading Taiwan is the near certainty of US intervention.
- lopmotr 9y ago
  Yes, which is why they're not the dominant superpower - the US is. Nobody intervened to stop the many US invasions over the past decades and still ongoing. China isn't able to do that except for tiny uninhabited islands.
  - emodendroket 9y ago
    How willing would the US be to take action that would invite a certain Chinese military response? Have we all forgotten how poorly that went during the Korean War, when China was much less industrialized and much poorer than now?
- refurb 9y ago
  I don't know if it's still true, but not that long ago China didn't have the equipment to even do a mass beach landing. Which would be required to invade Taiwan. They have a strong military manpower wise, but lack the ability to project power in a number of important areas.
  - emodendroket 9y ago
    I tried to look this up, and only found this article, which suggests that an amphibious landing force exists but would currently have trouble dealing with both the American military (under the probably reasonable assumption that the US would come to Taiwan's defense) and also the defenses Taiwan already has: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.35aa43753db9 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/... Not really conclusive, I guess, but I found the article interesting.