7 ms·

I've always figured the Chinese, if they went to a total war footing, would be able to shift their supply/production chains to mass produce effective swarms of

I've always figured the Chinese, if they went to a total war footing, would be able to shift their supply/production chains to mass produce effective swarms of drones.

goldenkey 9y ago
The thing is, defending against small drones is pretty cheap. Air-to-air missiles aren't needed. A simple 50 cal rifle will probably destroy these planes with 1 or 2 shots.
- adrianN 9y ago
  Those things are small and pretty fast though, so you'd need good tracking equipment to effectively defend against a swarm.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- azernik 9y ago
  Not even 50 cal, a regular old assault rifle will do. The problem is hitting the damn things. They're small, can turn on a dime, don't reflect radar very well, and run cold enough to give IR tracking some issues. Army manuals like [1] typically call for a coordinated fire of small arms across a large volume of airspace to hit a drone, but advise commanders that hit probabilities are low. Their most urgent advice is to keep spotters looking for enemy drones, and to use concealment and camouflage as much as possible to avoid enemy drone surveillance. [1] https://fas.org/irp/doddir/army/atp3-01-8.pdf https://fas.org/irp/doddir/army/atp3-01-8.pdf, search for "UAS" (Unmanned Aerial System)
  - gaius 9y ago
    Not even 50 cal, a regular old assault rifle will do. Could you hit a moving drone with a rifle? Even when I shot competitively at 500m, I probably couldn't. You can hit clay pigeons with a shotgun but a drone can easily manoeuvre beyond range.
    - Zardoz84 9y ago
      I think that He was talking about firepower, not about easiness to hit the target. Even, you can strike down a drone throwing a small stone. Other thing is hitting it.
      - goldenkey 9y ago
        Right. And with missiles, missed shots cost a lot of money. With a high powered rifle round that has a relatively straight trajectory -- the cost is miniscule. So firing many times is no problem in the case of minor errors in accuracy. Even a gatling gun could be used -- warthog style.
    - azernik 9y ago
      As I said: "The problem is hitting the damn things". Please at least read to the second paragraph.
      - gaius 9y ago
        Please at least read to the second paragraph. If you can't hit it with the weapon what is the point of even mentioning the weapon? You might as well have said you could fight a drone with a baseball bat for all you contributed to this discussion.
        icebraining 9y ago
        ...because it's a reply to a post that mentions the same kind of weapon?
        azernik 9y ago
        I was replying to someone who claimed a .50 cal could do the job. I was pointing out that firepower wasn't the limiting factor - you could do it with something smaller, but that wouldn't matter. The second paragraph was the main contribution; the first paragraph was a transition from the statement of the person I was replying to.
  - blackrock 9y ago
    I would think that this is something Artificial Intelligence can handle. A perimeter defense would need to be established, with radars for long range scanning. And cameras for short range confirmation. It will also need infrared cameras to operate at night. A computer system would monitor the perimeter, for all incoming threats. This computer system must be very powerful, as it is processing a lot of data in real time. However, this kind of technology should now be in the realms of deep learning AI that is currently being developed now. Once a positive visual confirmation is made, to determine that the aerial object is an intrusion drone, then an alert can be given to the human commander, of the incoming threat. And a human can still stay in the loop to order the execution. Then, a turret mounted laser cannon, can be used to burn down the drone. Or even a rifle can be used to kill the drone with a kinetic impact. The accuracy of a bullet fired by a robot, should far exceed the skill of the best human sniper. But bullets still follow a parabolic path, so a turret mounted laser cannon is more flexible to destroy drones.
    - goldenkey 9y ago
      There are plenty of rifle rounds with very low bullet drop rates. For example, the 26 Nosler has close to zero inches of drop at 450 yards (quarter mile.) By extending the turret's barrel length and adding additional rifling/twist, drop can be further decreased while power is increased. Unless the distances are greater than a mile, a high powered rifle round will have so little drop to be negligible. And a railgun could be used if the energy footpounds of smokeless powder is not cutting it -- but really, a small grain round with a large powder charge will fly straight for the distances we are concerned with here.
- imtringued 9y ago
  High end drones can reach up to 110mph. Can you hit a target moving at this speed?
  - jlg23 9y ago
    You don't have to. An explosive round that detonates nearby will take a drone down, too. If I remember the details correctly, the Metal Storm[1] weapon system should be able to do just that: Fire explosive rounds set to detonate at a specific point in their flight. Fire n^3 rounds to cover enough space to account for speed, direction and altitude changes and you should be set. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Storm https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Storm
    - mattmanser 9y ago
      Seems like a very expensive solution to a very cheap enemy.
  - tw20180209 9y ago
    The games of skeet and trap shooting are played by using a shotgun to hit a target about the size of your hand traveling between 40 and 70 miles per hour. You shoot those targets about 35 yards ±15 away from where you are standing. You'll hear an alert (or call) for a target which will appear somewhere out in front of you about 3 seconds later. They may be traveling quickly or slowly, near the ground or high above you, in the same or opposite directions. You'll have about 5 seconds to hit two targets with two shells from a "double barrelled" shotgun. I've little doubt that with an afternoon of practice I could reliably hit clays moving 30% faster; not as accurately as in an ordinary game, but certainly well over 50%. If the targets were larger and need to be "clipped" rather than fully destroyed then the task becomes easier. Coupled with a shotgun that can hold more than 2 shells, modern sights, and semi-automatic action: I think reliably shooting targets like that is possible. If drones become considerably more durable then you'd need a tighter pattern of heavier shot to delivery sufficient energy to disable or destroy it. Tighter patterns would make hitting the target more difficult as you need to be more accurate when aiming. As the size and power behind your shot increases it also becomes more difficult to make follow-up shots if you miss because the recoil pulls you off target. The biggest hinderance wouldn't be speed but maneurverability. In order to hit a moving target you need to be able to predict where it will be, if a drone moves erratically then it would be very hard to predict and so very hard to shoot.
killjoywashere 9y ago
If the Chinese ever switch he'd to a total warfooting, they could switch h their supply/production chains to mass produce whatever the want, short of blonde babies with blue eyes. Just like every other semi-rational economy on Earth.
- kbart 9y ago
  "they could switch h their supply/production chains to mass produce whatever the want, short of blonde babies with blue eyes." I think they will soon be capable of that too[0]. 0. https://qz.com/1185488/chinese-scientists-used-crispr-gene-editing-on-86-human-patients/ https://qz.com/1185488/chinese-scientists-used-crispr-gene-e...

I've always figured the Chinese, if they went to a total war footing, would be able to shift their supply/production chains to mass produce effective swarms of drones.

goldenkey 9y ago

The thing is, defending against small drones is pretty cheap. Air-to-air missiles aren't needed. A simple 50 cal rifle will probably destroy these planes with 1 or 2 shots.

adrianN 9y ago
Those things are small and pretty fast though, so you'd need good tracking equipment to effectively defend against a swarm.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
azernik 9y ago
Not even 50 cal, a regular old assault rifle will do. The problem is hitting the damn things. They're small, can turn on a dime, don't reflect radar very well, and run cold enough to give IR tracking some issues. Army manuals like [1] typically call for a coordinated fire of small arms across a large volume of airspace to hit a drone, but advise commanders that hit probabilities are low. Their most urgent advice is to keep spotters looking for enemy drones, and to use concealment and camouflage as much as possible to avoid enemy drone surveillance. [1] https://fas.org/irp/doddir/army/atp3-01-8.pdf https://fas.org/irp/doddir/army/atp3-01-8.pdf, search for "UAS" (Unmanned Aerial System)
- gaius 9y ago
  Not even 50 cal, a regular old assault rifle will do. Could you hit a moving drone with a rifle? Even when I shot competitively at 500m, I probably couldn't. You can hit clay pigeons with a shotgun but a drone can easily manoeuvre beyond range.
  - Zardoz84 9y ago
    I think that He was talking about firepower, not about easiness to hit the target. Even, you can strike down a drone throwing a small stone. Other thing is hitting it.
    - goldenkey 9y ago
      Right. And with missiles, missed shots cost a lot of money. With a high powered rifle round that has a relatively straight trajectory -- the cost is miniscule. So firing many times is no problem in the case of minor errors in accuracy. Even a gatling gun could be used -- warthog style.
  - azernik 9y ago
    As I said: "The problem is hitting the damn things". Please at least read to the second paragraph.
    - gaius 9y ago
      Please at least read to the second paragraph. If you can't hit it with the weapon what is the point of even mentioning the weapon? You might as well have said you could fight a drone with a baseball bat for all you contributed to this discussion.
      - icebraining 9y ago
        ...because it's a reply to a post that mentions the same kind of weapon?
      - azernik 9y ago
        I was replying to someone who claimed a .50 cal could do the job. I was pointing out that firepower wasn't the limiting factor - you could do it with something smaller, but that wouldn't matter. The second paragraph was the main contribution; the first paragraph was a transition from the statement of the person I was replying to.
- blackrock 9y ago
  I would think that this is something Artificial Intelligence can handle. A perimeter defense would need to be established, with radars for long range scanning. And cameras for short range confirmation. It will also need infrared cameras to operate at night. A computer system would monitor the perimeter, for all incoming threats. This computer system must be very powerful, as it is processing a lot of data in real time. However, this kind of technology should now be in the realms of deep learning AI that is currently being developed now. Once a positive visual confirmation is made, to determine that the aerial object is an intrusion drone, then an alert can be given to the human commander, of the incoming threat. And a human can still stay in the loop to order the execution. Then, a turret mounted laser cannon, can be used to burn down the drone. Or even a rifle can be used to kill the drone with a kinetic impact. The accuracy of a bullet fired by a robot, should far exceed the skill of the best human sniper. But bullets still follow a parabolic path, so a turret mounted laser cannon is more flexible to destroy drones.
  - goldenkey 9y ago
    There are plenty of rifle rounds with very low bullet drop rates. For example, the 26 Nosler has close to zero inches of drop at 450 yards (quarter mile.) By extending the turret's barrel length and adding additional rifling/twist, drop can be further decreased while power is increased. Unless the distances are greater than a mile, a high powered rifle round will have so little drop to be negligible. And a railgun could be used if the energy footpounds of smokeless powder is not cutting it -- but really, a small grain round with a large powder charge will fly straight for the distances we are concerned with here.
imtringued 9y ago
High end drones can reach up to 110mph. Can you hit a target moving at this speed?
- jlg23 9y ago
  You don't have to. An explosive round that detonates nearby will take a drone down, too. If I remember the details correctly, the Metal Storm[1] weapon system should be able to do just that: Fire explosive rounds set to detonate at a specific point in their flight. Fire n^3 rounds to cover enough space to account for speed, direction and altitude changes and you should be set. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Storm https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Storm
  - mattmanser 9y ago
    Seems like a very expensive solution to a very cheap enemy.
- tw20180209 9y ago
  The games of skeet and trap shooting are played by using a shotgun to hit a target about the size of your hand traveling between 40 and 70 miles per hour. You shoot those targets about 35 yards ±15 away from where you are standing. You'll hear an alert (or call) for a target which will appear somewhere out in front of you about 3 seconds later. They may be traveling quickly or slowly, near the ground or high above you, in the same or opposite directions. You'll have about 5 seconds to hit two targets with two shells from a "double barrelled" shotgun. I've little doubt that with an afternoon of practice I could reliably hit clays moving 30% faster; not as accurately as in an ordinary game, but certainly well over 50%. If the targets were larger and need to be "clipped" rather than fully destroyed then the task becomes easier. Coupled with a shotgun that can hold more than 2 shells, modern sights, and semi-automatic action: I think reliably shooting targets like that is possible. If drones become considerably more durable then you'd need a tighter pattern of heavier shot to delivery sufficient energy to disable or destroy it. Tighter patterns would make hitting the target more difficult as you need to be more accurate when aiming. As the size and power behind your shot increases it also becomes more difficult to make follow-up shots if you miss because the recoil pulls you off target. The biggest hinderance wouldn't be speed but maneurverability. In order to hit a moving target you need to be able to predict where it will be, if a drone moves erratically then it would be very hard to predict and so very hard to shoot.

killjoywashere 9y ago

If the Chinese ever switch he'd to a total warfooting, they could switch h their supply/production chains to mass produce whatever the want, short of blonde babies with blue eyes. Just like every other semi-rational economy on Earth.

kbart 9y ago
"they could switch h their supply/production chains to mass produce whatever the want, short of blonde babies with blue eyes." I think they will soon be capable of that too[0]. 0. https://qz.com/1185488/chinese-scientists-used-crispr-gene-editing-on-86-human-patients/ https://qz.com/1185488/chinese-scientists-used-crispr-gene-e...