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Cost-Reduction Roadmap for Residential Solar PV, 2017–2030

48 points by ph0rque 9y ago

allears 9y ago
This report doesn't take into account the probable upcoming tariff on imported solar panels.
- toomuchtodo 9y ago
  Upcoming tariff is minor. Only adds a few months to the payback period. https://solarpowerrocks.com/affordable-solar/donald-trumps-solar-tariff-isnt-bad-homeowners-want-install-solar/ https://solarpowerrocks.com/affordable-solar/donald-trumps-s... "When the tariffs take effect, February 7th, 2018, they’ll add 30% to the price of most imported solar panels (aka modules). That’s a pretty huge markup, but because module cost is only a small part of the overall cost of installing a system, the final price you’d pay to a solar installer will only go up by a little. In an earlier article, we wrote about a typical 5-kW solar system costing $15,000, with solar modules representing about $1,750. A 30% increase in module price would translate to $525 more for the whole installation, which can be erased by about half a year of the electricity produced by the panels. That’s not so bad! After 2018, the tariff will “step down” by 5% per year, ending at 15% through 2021. So that $500 premium goes down to about $250, and goes away after 2021, but you shouldn’t wait that long to install, because of the “other ITC”."
  - 220V_USKettle 9y ago
    If labor is the most expensive line-item...
    - cma 9y ago
      Then an increase in the other costs will affect jobs, if the manufacturing part isn't labor heavy.
philipkglass 9y ago
In Germany, with labor costs and protections at least as high as the US, per-watt installation costs for residential solar are a small fraction of what they are in the US: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/509196/why-solar-installations-cost-more-in-the-us-than-in-germany/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/509196/why-solar-installa... That report is from 2012, but soft (non-hardware) costs have remained stubbornly high in the US. Even with the recent solar tariffs, all-in costs for a kWh of residential solar in the US would be significantly lower than in Germany, if the US could get soft costs down to German levels. The solar resources of most of the continental US are that much better than Germany. Australia too has much lower installed costs than the US. A former residential solar company CEO blames American red tape: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-to-halve-the-cost-of-residential-solar-in-the-us https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-to-halve-th...
- djrogers 9y ago
  Your link directly contradicts your claim that labor and protection costs are 'at least as high': > Costs for permitting, connecting the systems to the grid, and having them inspected are also far higher in the United States. and > U.S. installers also spend more on labor during actual installation (in some cases, higher winds force more expensive installations). They pay more in sales tax (German installers are exempt).
  - philipkglass 9y ago
    I meant generally, in terms of protections and wages for labor. It wouldn't be fair to compare Chinese or Indian residential solar costs with the US (less safety and much lower wages), but Australia and Germany are both developed countries with high minimum wages.
- gok 9y ago
  > A former residential solar company CEO blames American red tape I'm sure there's an army who would call that red tape "important safety protection regulation." It's telling that the bureaucrats who put this NREL report together to reduce costs look at market maturation, business model integration, product innovation and economies of scale, but--shockingly!--not reducing regulatory overhead. Inventing new forms of photovoltaics is considered more realistic than addressing rent seeking.
michaelbuckbee 9y ago
An interesting passage from the report: "Product innovation could take a variety of forms, such as reduced PV racking and mounting, preassembled PV, and low-cost PV roofing tiles. An integrated PV and roofing product, in particular, could yield significant cost savings, especially if the roof and PV system could be shipped and installed in unison. Although integrated products have low market share today, it is plausible that they could reach the mass market by 2030. For example, several companies have recently introduced or are developing integrated PV products (CertainTeed 2017, GAF 2017, Tesla 2017). Product innovation along these lines could influence the labor, supply chain, and structural BOS cost categories." Which would seem to be good new for Tesla roofs, etc. I hadn't really considered how expensive traditional rooftop solar is in terms of both sales (convincing a homeowner that the should install panels) and installation (people physically going out on the roof). From the report: Panel (module) pricing, Admin Overhead, Sales and Marketing and Physical Installation are all roughly equivalent. PV roofing tiles take a big chunk out the latter 3 which seems really promising.
- aidenn0 9y ago
  Also, currently solar roofing can be a bit of a tax-code hack (depending on where you live). If you buy a new roof, and then put solar panels on top, only the panels get green-energy tax benefits, but if the roof is the panels, then the total cost of the roof is used for calculating your tax benefits. Larger installs will usually hit caps on the benefits before this matters, but smaller installs in places with high caps can collect more. [edit] Reading other comments, it's apparently also a permit-hack, as panels need to be permitted separately from the roof (and in HOAs may be subject to board approval).
  - toomuchtodo 9y ago
    > (and in HOAs may be subject to board approval) Can't speak to other states, but Florida state law specifically overrides HOAs when it relates to solar panels on your roof. They are inhibited from preventing you from installing solar on your roof.
    - 9y ago

48 points by ph0rque 9y ago

allears 9y ago

This report doesn't take into account the probable upcoming tariff on imported solar panels.

toomuchtodo 9y ago
Upcoming tariff is minor. Only adds a few months to the payback period. https://solarpowerrocks.com/affordable-solar/donald-trumps-solar-tariff-isnt-bad-homeowners-want-install-solar/ https://solarpowerrocks.com/affordable-solar/donald-trumps-s... "When the tariffs take effect, February 7th, 2018, they’ll add 30% to the price of most imported solar panels (aka modules). That’s a pretty huge markup, but because module cost is only a small part of the overall cost of installing a system, the final price you’d pay to a solar installer will only go up by a little. In an earlier article, we wrote about a typical 5-kW solar system costing $15,000, with solar modules representing about $1,750. A 30% increase in module price would translate to $525 more for the whole installation, which can be erased by about half a year of the electricity produced by the panels. That’s not so bad! After 2018, the tariff will “step down” by 5% per year, ending at 15% through 2021. So that $500 premium goes down to about $250, and goes away after 2021, but you shouldn’t wait that long to install, because of the “other ITC”."
- 220V_USKettle 9y ago
  If labor is the most expensive line-item...
  - cma 9y ago
    Then an increase in the other costs will affect jobs, if the manufacturing part isn't labor heavy.

philipkglass 9y ago

In Germany, with labor costs and protections at least as high as the US, per-watt installation costs for residential solar are a small fraction of what they are in the US: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/509196/why-solar-installations-cost-more-in-the-us-than-in-germany/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/509196/why-solar-installa... That report is from 2012, but soft (non-hardware) costs have remained stubbornly high in the US. Even with the recent solar tariffs, all-in costs for a kWh of residential solar in the US would be significantly lower than in Germany, if the US could get soft costs down to German levels. The solar resources of most of the continental US are that much better than Germany. Australia too has much lower installed costs than the US. A former residential solar company CEO blames American red tape: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-to-halve-the-cost-of-residential-solar-in-the-us https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-to-halve-th...

djrogers 9y ago
Your link directly contradicts your claim that labor and protection costs are 'at least as high': > Costs for permitting, connecting the systems to the grid, and having them inspected are also far higher in the United States. and > U.S. installers also spend more on labor during actual installation (in some cases, higher winds force more expensive installations). They pay more in sales tax (German installers are exempt).
- philipkglass 9y ago
  I meant generally, in terms of protections and wages for labor. It wouldn't be fair to compare Chinese or Indian residential solar costs with the US (less safety and much lower wages), but Australia and Germany are both developed countries with high minimum wages.
gok 9y ago
> A former residential solar company CEO blames American red tape I'm sure there's an army who would call that red tape "important safety protection regulation." It's telling that the bureaucrats who put this NREL report together to reduce costs look at market maturation, business model integration, product innovation and economies of scale, but--shockingly!--not reducing regulatory overhead. Inventing new forms of photovoltaics is considered more realistic than addressing rent seeking.

michaelbuckbee 9y ago

An interesting passage from the report: "Product innovation could take a variety of forms, such as reduced PV racking and mounting, preassembled PV, and low-cost PV roofing tiles. An integrated PV and roofing product, in particular, could yield significant cost savings, especially if the roof and PV system could be shipped and installed in unison. Although integrated products have low market share today, it is plausible that they could reach the mass market by 2030. For example, several companies have recently introduced or are developing integrated PV products (CertainTeed 2017, GAF 2017, Tesla 2017). Product innovation along these lines could influence the labor, supply chain, and structural BOS cost categories." Which would seem to be good new for Tesla roofs, etc. I hadn't really considered how expensive traditional rooftop solar is in terms of both sales (convincing a homeowner that the should install panels) and installation (people physically going out on the roof). From the report: Panel (module) pricing, Admin Overhead, Sales and Marketing and Physical Installation are all roughly equivalent. PV roofing tiles take a big chunk out the latter 3 which seems really promising.

aidenn0 9y ago
Also, currently solar roofing can be a bit of a tax-code hack (depending on where you live). If you buy a new roof, and then put solar panels on top, only the panels get green-energy tax benefits, but if the roof is the panels, then the total cost of the roof is used for calculating your tax benefits. Larger installs will usually hit caps on the benefits before this matters, but smaller installs in places with high caps can collect more. [edit] Reading other comments, it's apparently also a permit-hack, as panels need to be permitted separately from the roof (and in HOAs may be subject to board approval).
- toomuchtodo 9y ago
  > (and in HOAs may be subject to board approval) Can't speak to other states, but Florida state law specifically overrides HOAs when it relates to solar panels on your roof. They are inhibited from preventing you from installing solar on your roof.
  - 9y ago