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Show HN: Carbon Doomsday – Graph and API of Earth's Carbon Dioxide
- titojankowski 9y agoProject inspired by a post on HN in June. Within a week 4 people responded to the post and started development! This: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14492180 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14492180 Congrats to Luke, Steph, Marty, Purin, Dan, and Phillip on this latest redesign!
- rtfm666 9y agoYep! Django back-end dev here who built the API here. It's been a really cool experience with people coming from all over the place to join in and hack on the project. We're mostly hanging out at https://gitter.im/giving-a-fuck-about-climate-change/Lobby https://gitter.im/giving-a-fuck-about-climate-change/Lobby with a stable team of ~4. We're recently thinking a lot about datahub.io and how we can take it further. Big shout-out to our front-end devs who made the new re-design! Any questions, just shoot. Want to contribute, please do! Shape the project any way you want, it's free software!
- sologoub 9y agoWhy does ppm seem to peak in April/May each year?
- titojankowski 9y ago#1 question! First, why do you think it peaks?
- titojankowski 9y agoTrees and plants die off in the fall/winter, and grow back in the spring/summer. Longer answer here from Scripps/UCSD: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2013/06/04/why-does-atmospheric-co2-peak-in-may/ https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2013/06/04/wh...
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- sologoub 9y agoThanks, fascinating read!
- FiatLuxDave 9y agoSome comments: 1) The tagline at the top "since 1958" makes it seem like the website is since 1958, instead of the data. Obviously false, but may reduce trust. 2) The graph is good, I like it! 3) In the Data Sources section, it would be very helpful to have a link to the original data. Don't make me hunt for it. I was wondering if this was an average of multiple locations or from a single location. 4) It may be helpful to have a link or explanation about the yearly period of the CO2 level. Something like https://www.co2.earth/seasonal-co2-cycle https://www.co2.earth/seasonal-co2-cycle.
- titojankowski 9y ago1) good point! Suggestions for a better tagline? 3) We’ll get that added! 4) The yearly up-down is the most common question I get! Cool guesses on why even though they’re wrong — like maybe air conditioning usage? I’m split - is there a way nurture this curiosity/question rather than just giving the answer straightaway?
- Pxtl 9y agowk/month/year scaling of stock markets doesn't seem to fit here. Even monthly it just looks like a jaggy mess with no coherent trends. It doesn't start taking shape until the year mark.
- titojankowski 9y agoThe jaggy chart sparks my curiousity. Why is it a jaggy mess on the month scale? The world already has enough super-processed, tell-me-what-to-think climate data.
- Pxtl 9y agoBecause it's scaled to maximize showing the jagginess of it. It's only 1 PPM of fluctuation at the small scale - this is basically noise.
- semi-extrinsic 9y agoBecause there's noise inherent to any physical measurement. On the monthly chart, the range on the y-axis is 0.7 ppm. There's absolutely no sensor in the world capable of giving a reliable and valid measurement of CO2 in the atmosphere with sub-ppm accuracy. Just consider e.g. changing wind speed and directions which influence both the degree of atmospheric mixing and what the mix is of CO2 sources/sinks in the upstream direction. Really, the smallest range on the y-axis should be 10 ppm, no matter how small the time interval. No need to spark general curiosity about noise.
- safiume 9y agoIndeed. For a Bay Area comparison showing local fluctuation to gauge CO2 saturation, see the Exploratorium's Beacon Data: https://www.exploratorium.edu/environmental-field-station/current-conditions https://www.exploratorium.edu/environmental-field-station/cu... https://www.exploratorium.edu/environmental-field-station/sensors-locations https://www.exploratorium.edu/environmental-field-station/se.... It varies quite heavily, some of the latest measurements are in the over 500PPM.
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- llccbb 9y agoNice enough design work. But as someone who works in the climate data space I think there isn't much value add here. CO2 data is already free and open and not challenging to use. It seems like a half-wasted use of electricity and contributors time to just show data and not have any call to action or resources for how to do something about the problem. From the branding and social media integration I am guessing there isn't any deep interest in actually _doing something_ about carbon emissions. It feels like the villager who is screaming about a house on fire instead of joining in the bucket line. Something like ClimateWatch[0] is actually building a strong platform for aggregating disparate data sources around climate change, GHG emissions, climate resilience practices, and multinational legislation. Granted ClimateWatch isn't built by an online community of volunteers, but maybe it is something to look at for further inspiration. [0]https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ https://www.climatewatchdata.org/
- andy_ppp 9y agoWhat are the things people can actually do - realistically the only way to fix this is a carbon tax that includes the environmental costs of burning carbon. Becoming vegetarian on an individual level will basically be a drop in the ocean, there are not enough people going to change. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKCuDxpccYM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKCuDxpccYM
- titojankowski 9y agoACTION: Here’s 70+ startups that see carbon dioxide as a profit opportunity: http://airminers.org http://airminers.org Climate change will create the first trillionaire.
- andy_ppp 9y agoGreat idea. Will apply.
- safiume 9y agoYes! The situation is dire enough that we need all hands on deck pushing forward on all solutions. The creators of AirMiners.org talk about active solutions here https://goo.gl/oUFg9c https://goo.gl/oUFg9c. An active project seeking STEM experts: Open NanoCarbon, an open science effort to solidify all the anthropogenic carbon. It's listed on the Air Miners and in the video, and is having a 2/15 meetup at Google SF: https://goo.gl/kbhuUk https://goo.gl/kbhuUk
- mturmon 9y agoYou might want to clarify that the data you're plotting are from a ground-based station on Mauna Loa. One symptom of this is that your plot does not have a title or y-axis label. Similarly, the "global" CO2 number you display as text may be (?) an average of selected ground-based stations. CO2 varies with altitude, and with time and spatially, of course. The ground-based stations give part of the picture, but there are also various total-column CO2 measurements, prominently from TCCON (http://tccon.ornl.gov/ http://tccon.ornl.gov/), and remote-sensing measurements (https://co2.jpl.nasa.gov/ https://co2.jpl.nasa.gov/). This is why clarifying what you mean by "global CO2" is important. In the light of the sophistication of what's out there, it might be good to think about where you're trying to add value.
- titojankowski 9y agoGreat suggestion, thanks! We will expand upon that in our Data Sources section, and also improve the labeling on the graph.
- mturmon 9y agoOops, the TCCON link I gave is dead. Use instead: https://tccon-wiki.caltech.edu https://tccon-wiki.caltech.edu, or http://www.ndsc.ncep.noaa.gov http://www.ndsc.ncep.noaa.gov.
- yakitori 9y agoThe domain is "carbondoomsday". Expecting reliable objective anything from such a site is naive.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- titojankowski 9y agoWe chose "carbondoomsday" to be provocative, and to push into a silly level of seriousness about climate change. Similar to http://blog.ycombinator.com/why-toys/ http://blog.ycombinator.com/why-toys/
- jgh 9y ago"Since last five years" should be more like "In the past five years"
- titojankowski 9y agoooo good point! Will fix. Thanks!
- notabee 9y agoIf possible, you may want to add in alternative views with the carbon budget. There's a lot of chicanery with the IPCC scenarios and negative emissions technologies that don't exist yet. It gives context to what the ppm means in terms of the point-of-no-return that we're facing alarmingly soon. The site looks really promising, though! Some good info in this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2b68JFsnkA&t=10m58s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2b68JFsnkA&t=10m58s
- titojankowski 9y agothis guy gets it! What about putting a line up at 500 or 600 ppm for a “critical level”?
- titojankowski 9y agoor maybe a tool to model the data? We want to make it more interactive. Pac Man for carbon would be a cool game using the data :D
- heydonovan 9y agoWas the UI borrowed from the Coinbase Dashboard?
- titojankowski 9y ago“No One Gives a Fuck About Climate Change” was inspired by the awesome Coinbase charts: http://titojankowski.com/no-one-gives-a-fck-about-climate-change/ http://titojankowski.com/no-one-gives-a-fck-about-climate-ch... Coinbase is great!!
- Ancalagon 9y agoId also like to add that the majority of your first time visitors are gonna have no reference point for what a good or bad PPM is. It would be helpful to have projection scenarios for the future and introduce labels for specific points in the time line with significant theoretical effects at that carbon level.
- titojankowski 9y agoWoa, that would be cool! Any suggestions for theoretical points you’d like to see? GitHub repo: https://github.com/giving-a-fuck-about-climate-change https://github.com/giving-a-fuck-about-climate-change
- Ancalagon 9y agoTheoretical rises in sea level, irreversible runaway effects, some actual 'doomsday' scenarios (e.g. the clathrate gun, algae blooms, jellyfish blooms, etc.) Really this would require some research. There are a lot of models, and I frankly am not sure which are more accurate.
- titojankowski 9y agoYeah that sounds like a cool tool. More like Clathrate Fun! Maybe turn it into a game haha. Anything else you’re curious about regarding climate change?
- Ancalagon 9y agoI also would like to see some in-your-face actionable advice for the average user. I give a fuck now about climate change, what can I do, really, to influence a change in this and prevent doomsday? You could do something similar to what FFTF did for net neutrality.
- titojankowski 9y agoThat action list sounds great, want to continue building that out on the site. Checking out FFTF now: https://www.fightforthefuture.org https://www.fightforthefuture.org
- GraffitiTim 9y agoDid this year’s peak decrease vs last year? That looks like an extremely rare event if so.
- titojankowski 9y agoI had the same thought this morning — but I think it’s just a little flat period in the data, and will continue to climb through the spring. No power in the ‘verse can stop it!
- mapster 9y agoy-axis please and some bullet points on what the data says re: long term/ mid term
- titojankowski 9y agonoted, thanks!
- fg8qfg8fg8 9y agoRather than saying "rising carbon dioxide levels" would it not be better to say something like "falling oxygen levels" ? And for "rising sea levels" wouldn't "reducing coastlines" be better ? Because people tend to think "more is better" and "higher is better"
- cephaslr 9y agoOn the topic of CO2 and doing something about it, I am interested in a good counter point to iron fertilizations and algae blooms. It seems like a relatively low cost solution to implement and would be easier than getting uncooperative state actors on board with carbon policies against their interest. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_fertilization#Debate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_fertilization#Debate https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fertilizing-ocean-with-iron-sequesters-co2/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fertilizing-ocean...
- Zigurd 9y agoAs with all geoengineering, it is hard to test. There no beta Earth. So, while the risks are not absolutely intractable, and acceptance of some form of geoengineering seems inevitable, it would be a mistake to embrace it without first reducing harm to a minimum.
- titojankowski 9y agoIron fertilization a great example to spark thinking about low cost / high benefit solutions. That's why we created AirMiners (http://airminers.org http://airminers.org) to track all the people mining carbon from the air. There's a lot going on!
- sintaxi 9y agoGeo-engineering is serious stuff and has been banned by the UN if I'm not mistaken.
- kikoreis 9y agoIn case you are clueless and curious about the May peak like me: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2013/06/04/why-does-atmospheric-co2-peak-in-may/ https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2013/06/04/wh...
- titojankowski 9y agoYes!! What do you think of that answer? Does it spark any new questions?
- wbracken 9y agoSeems like population has grown significantly more than carbon since 1960? https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/updated-World-Population-Growth-1750-2100.png https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/update...
- ghostbrainalpha 9y agoSorry for the dumb question but I don't understand when the Doomsday is.... Looks like we have gone from 300 to 400 in 50 years. What number is Doomsday and when are we projected to hit it? That's what I was expecting to see here, and if that isn't information we have or you want to project, maybe the title shouldn't be so provoking.
- titojankowski 9y agoGood perspective! Doomsday levels in the works. Relevant article: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2017/03/16/have-we-passed-the-climate-change-tipping-point/amp/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2...
- mirimir 9y agoI'm guessing that there's a continuum of doomsday levels. Rate and extent of temperature increase. Tipping points for melting of major chunks of grounded ice, and sea-level consequences. Regional changes in arability, and impacts on food production. Tipping points for melting of permafrost, and positive feedback on climate forcing. Reduction in climate forcing by SOx emissions, and spike in warming after SOx emission reductions.
- shoo 9y agohttps://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2248 https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2248
- lozenge 9y agoAlso http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0081648 http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal....
- sintaxi 9y agoDon't worry. The globe has been in a cooling period for the last 18 years despite a 6x increase in emissions. The only people saying we have a climate crisis on our hands are the political organizations that wish to implement taxes and de-industrialize the west. Plenty of reputable scientists have shown that the CO2 crisis is highly exaggerated if not completely unfounded. https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fpeterferrara%2Ffiles%2F2014%2F02%2Fpeter.jpg%3Fwidth%3D960 https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/smart/https%3A%2F%2...
- stereo 9y agoYou might want to start the axis at 0 ppm. This makes the rise look even larger.
- webXL 9y agoNot necessarily and probably not given the amount of historical data we have. This is why you should start from 0: https://flowingdata.com/2017/02/09/how-to-spot-visualization-lies/ https://flowingdata.com/2017/02/09/how-to-spot-visualization...
- lozenge 9y agoThe graph can start from 0 if 0 is meaningful. But it isn't - we don't want a 0ppm atmosphere, we want one similar to that of 150-200 years ago.
- gibsonf1 9y agoMaybe take a more scientific approach at showing carbon counts? For example, what were the carbon counts 1000s/1000000s of years ago as compared to now? Was carbon ever higher in the distant past than now, for example before humans? The "Carbon Doomsday" idea seems more a political idea than a scientific one, but maybe that is the point too. The correlation between carbon and temperature is just not scientifically working out, hence all the bad climate predictions based on carbon counts.
- goatlover 9y agoThe arctic has fossils of crocodiles and palm trees, and that's not because of continental drift, so the earth has been much warmer in the past, and life adapted. It's a problem for civilization because we would have to adapt quickly, causing a lot of disruption. But we're not headed for Venus-like conditions.
- cos2pi 9y agoI don't get anything out of this, frankly. There's no scientific context, exposition of the data/data collection methods or even what ppm means. For the interested, the ESRL Global Monitoring Division (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/index.html https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/index.html) is a more complete treatment of work being done in global greenhouse gas monitoring -- charts, maps and data included.
- rtfm666 9y agoThanks for weighing in! It's true it may be a bit science-lite on actually communicating details but we're definitely working on that. We have found a lot of inspiration from esrl.noaa.gov but we want it to look nicer (beyond this shallow need, we believe there are other benefits). I'm created https://github.com/giving-a-fuck-about-climate-change/carbon-inferno/issues/172 https://github.com/giving-a-fuck-about-climate-change/carbon... to track :)
- flashman 9y agoYour font is hard to read because of the similarity between uppercase I and lowercase i & l. "Il" is identical and "il" only has one pixel difference. You haven't used any j characters but they'd be similar to J.
- mkempe 9y agoMaybe you could include a full graph for the last 500 million years. It would show a steady decline of CO2 levels in the last 50-60my, whereas levels were previously ranging 2-5 times higher than in the recent holocene. [1] The real doomsday would have been a further decline of CO2 levels to the point of global plant starvation. Many plants already died off due to the previously shrinking supply of CO2. [2] [1] Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for the last 500 million years (2002). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.022055499 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.022055499 [2] Carbon dioxide starvation, the development of C4 ecosystems, and mammalian evolution (1998). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1692178/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1692178/
- sintaxi 9y agoThis is a very good point and I agree. We are actually in a 300M year low as far as CO2 goes. The rise in CO2 is arguably not even a negative thing.
- titojankowski 9y agoThanks for all the feedback everybody! Luke plugged in all your thoughts into issues on GitHub so we can keep track: https://github.com/giving-a-fuck-about-climate-change/carbondoomsday/issues https://github.com/giving-a-fuck-about-climate-change/carbon...