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Trading volume is actually still pretty low, by BTC standards. This is actually a little worrying, since it indicates that the panic hasn’t even started yet.

KasianFranks 9y ago
It's being 'walked' down. This is what happens when you've got low volume and institutions manipulating the price.
diab0lic 9y ago
I'm really shocked this panic hasn't set in yet, I would have bet otherwise. I wonder if it'll be a slow slide all the way down.
- Analemma_ 9y ago
  I imagine it will kick in when the truth comes out about Tether and USDT becomes worthless. Right now the evidence is overwhelming, but there's still no smoking gun. When Tether/Bitfinex declares bankruptcy, or the CEO is arrested at the airport trying to flee to Vanuatu with a suitcase full of cash; that'll be when the bloodbath starts.
  - makomk 9y ago
    The evidence makes no sense. We're supposed to believe that Bitfinex printed Tethers and used them to buy Bitcoins on their exchange - whose on-exchange USD reserves aren't even backed by USDT and aren't meant to be[1] - and this somehow caused a price bubble that mainly seemed to be driven by GDAX/Coinbase judging from the price differences between the exchanges and trading volumes, even though they don't deal in Tether at all. Not only that, it's just too small - for comparison, the total amount of Tether printed as of the end of 2017 was about $1 billion, roughly the same as Coinbase's revenue from fees in 2017. (Another billion or so has been printed since, but that was all after the Bitcoin price peaked.) There's some circumstantial evidence that they may or may not have been printing unbacked Tether to keep the price at parity, but that's a far cry from powering the Bitcoin bubble. [1] They were sort of a Tether exchange in the sense that for a while it was the only way for most people to withdraw USD balances, but they only kept a relatively small amount of USDT on hand to cover withdrawals.
- donkeyd 9y ago
  Possibly the 'hodl' meme doing its thing?
dragonwriter 9y ago
Low volume with this much price movement has to mean lots of uncertainty (or perhaps plenty of certainty in a bimodal distribution of price estimates, with the high peak holding and the low peak already sold out, and most of the trading going on in the fringes); there's obviously trading going on at ever-lower prices, but there's obviously lots of Bitcoin being held by people who see recovery as likely enough that its worth holding and not selling—and yet not enough market confidence of that to lead to buying that would stop the price drop.
adventured 9y ago
One of the required components to keep a bubble market moving higher, is the lack of wide-spread loss trauma by investors. This is the first time there has been mass-market trauma, where millions of people will have taken a bad hit. That trauma will prevent Bitcoin from bouncing back quickly as it has in the past. Coming out of this, Bitcoin will have a reputation that it's a very unsafe investment and that will stick to it for a long time.

KasianFranks 9y ago

It's being 'walked' down. This is what happens when you've got low volume and institutions manipulating the price.

diab0lic 9y ago

I'm really shocked this panic hasn't set in yet, I would have bet otherwise. I wonder if it'll be a slow slide all the way down.

Analemma_ 9y ago
I imagine it will kick in when the truth comes out about Tether and USDT becomes worthless. Right now the evidence is overwhelming, but there's still no smoking gun. When Tether/Bitfinex declares bankruptcy, or the CEO is arrested at the airport trying to flee to Vanuatu with a suitcase full of cash; that'll be when the bloodbath starts.
- makomk 9y ago
  The evidence makes no sense. We're supposed to believe that Bitfinex printed Tethers and used them to buy Bitcoins on their exchange - whose on-exchange USD reserves aren't even backed by USDT and aren't meant to be[1] - and this somehow caused a price bubble that mainly seemed to be driven by GDAX/Coinbase judging from the price differences between the exchanges and trading volumes, even though they don't deal in Tether at all. Not only that, it's just too small - for comparison, the total amount of Tether printed as of the end of 2017 was about $1 billion, roughly the same as Coinbase's revenue from fees in 2017. (Another billion or so has been printed since, but that was all after the Bitcoin price peaked.) There's some circumstantial evidence that they may or may not have been printing unbacked Tether to keep the price at parity, but that's a far cry from powering the Bitcoin bubble. [1] They were sort of a Tether exchange in the sense that for a while it was the only way for most people to withdraw USD balances, but they only kept a relatively small amount of USDT on hand to cover withdrawals.
donkeyd 9y ago
Possibly the 'hodl' meme doing its thing?

dragonwriter 9y ago

Low volume with this much price movement has to mean lots of uncertainty (or perhaps plenty of certainty in a bimodal distribution of price estimates, with the high peak holding and the low peak already sold out, and most of the trading going on in the fringes); there's obviously trading going on at ever-lower prices, but there's obviously lots of Bitcoin being held by people who see recovery as likely enough that its worth holding and not selling—and yet not enough market confidence of that to lead to buying that would stop the price drop.

adventured 9y ago

One of the required components to keep a bubble market moving higher, is the lack of wide-spread loss trauma by investors. This is the first time there has been mass-market trauma, where millions of people will have taken a bad hit. That trauma will prevent Bitcoin from bouncing back quickly as it has in the past. Coming out of this, Bitcoin will have a reputation that it's a very unsafe investment and that will stick to it for a long time.