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Interestingly, most of the article thesis isn't specific about India being destructed, it's about the World being destructed (over exploitation of natural resou

Interestingly, most of the article thesis isn't specific about India being destructed, it's about the World being destructed (over exploitation of natural resources + pollution). But the element that I find strangely missing is the one about population growth. I'm pretty sure that GDP per capita can grow, if not indefinitely, for a very very long time - if the population isn't too big. India will soon be the most populous country in the World and still growing strongly enough; I would be curious to know if this is seen as a big problem in India, or not...

baxtr 9y ago
I totally agree, I also noticed that this element was missing. A think, a crucial first step would be to stop population growth. This is very intrusive in people’s lives and hard to control as measure, but more than necessary. The footprint of a human being needs to be sustained by its local environment. Global effects are not helping, but in the end this problem requires a local solution.
- jpatokal 9y ago
  The world's population growth is screeching to a halt almost universally, even without China-style coercion. This includes India, where the total fertility rate has fallen from >6 in the 1950s to around 2.4 today, and the steady decline is set to continue.
  - baxtr 9y ago
    Do have source for that on a country level?
    - jpatokal 9y ago
      The animation & sources here is a good starting point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
      - baxtr 9y ago
        I still don’t understand the relevance of your argument. No numbers are given on that page for India. Contrast that with this page, and you’ll see that India will increase its population quite significantly until 2030. How can you not see that this is a major problem? Just because Japan is ageging India won’t be saved. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...
        ajeet_dhaliwal 9y ago
        Take a look at India’s tfr here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_territories_of_India_by_fertility_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_ter... ‘Population momentum’ will mean they keep growing for a 2-3 decades but the tfr is very low in many states (well below replacement level) but there are a couple of big poor states where it’s still higher than replacement level but still not anywhere near as high as it used to be. The damage was done in the 50s and 60s for the most part, people are having far fewer children today. In some wealthy states like Punjab and Kerala it’s far below replacement and in fact lower than even Western Europe and the USA.
  - cc81 9y ago
    Last I've read the population growth has not reduced as quickly as hoped in Africa and soon most of the worlds population growth will happen there.
- shripadk 9y ago
  No population control is no longer a necessity. Hans Rosling explains it really well in this video: https://vimeo.com/79878808 https://vimeo.com/79878808
  - mythrwy 9y ago
    Maybe globally it's not. Some regions however would eliminate a great amount of suffering were they able to implement it. Because at the end of the day population control comes around anyway.
    - baxtr 9y ago
      I am starting to think that Hans Rosling did some real harm. People confuse a global trend with a local one. In a World with borders, local overpopulation will lead to catastrophes, where millions could be affected.
      - shripadk 9y ago
        Overpopulation can be addressed by building more cities. Take India for example. Mumbai is overpopulated. The reason for this is that it's the financial hub of the country and also has a booming movie industry (Bollywood). But that will change once we have smart cities through the Smart Cities Mission: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Cities_Mission https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Cities_Mission This will lead to natural decongestion as industries will spread out over a larger area causing large populations to shift base. For instance, the Dholera Smart City (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOFpWFLSqgU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOFpWFLSqgU) based in Gujarat will become operational in 2019 (http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-dholera-smart-city-to-be-operational-by-2019-gujarat-govt-2221454 http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-dholera-smart-city-to-b...).
lozenge 9y ago
The population growth isn't a problem "yet" but it is a problem when those people want to develop (ie increase energy consumption). Hans Rosling explains it well: https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_and_the_magic_washing_machine/transcript https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_and_the_magic_washing...
- singularity2001 9y ago
  will energy consumption be less of an economic problem thanks to the break even of solar and coal?
  - nabla9 9y ago
    World as a whole is hungry for energy. Industrialized nations have been able to reduce the link between economic growth and energy consumption, but the same is not true for the rest of the world. Globally alternate energy adds to the global energy production, it's not replacing. When the industrialized world moves to alternate energies, developing world can afford to consume more oil, gas and coal. When solar becomes cheaper, it makes hydrocarbons cheaper due to decreasing demand. I don't see how solar power replaces the global hydrocarbon production significantly before it's too late. It certainly will not do so in the short or medium term. Markets value large oil and coal companies and producers like the demand will continue. EIA estimates that global petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption and production are in constant upward path: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
    - marcosdumay 9y ago
      Fossil fuel production is highly competitive, so prices are pretty much set by the costs of the last marginal producer. If the world decreases its consumption, the prices may go down (possibly by a large amount). But any increase in consumption will very likely push the prices up, it does not matter it the competition between consumers is small.
- spicymaki 9y ago
tapanjk 9y ago
> strangely missing is the one about population growth This. There was a time when population explosion was recognised as something to deal with. For the last decade or so, somehow this conversation has simply vanished (from the school books, from political discourse, from the news media). It is as if we, the citizens, have collectively given up on this issue and want to pretend that the issue does not exist. If I were to pick one single thing to start with, in order to reverse the current trend of environmental degradation, it would be population control. Unless this is addressed soon, it will be the root cause for the breakdown of the equilibrium of the environment and the social structure.
- peoplewindow 9y ago
  Well is that observation specific to India, or do you mean in the west? In the west it's disappeared because the projections were all wrong. The population in rich countries does not replace itself. Without large levels of immigration the population would start to decline. This is partly why the EU is trying to force mass migration on the member states - it's for several (stated) reasons, but one of them is a belief that otherwise the population will decline and the economy will shrink.
  - RivieraKid 9y ago
    > This is partly why the EU is trying to force mass migration on the member states - it's for several (stated) reasons, but one of them is a belief that otherwise the population will decline and the economy will shrink. This is a completely unfounded speculation.
    - peoplewindow 9y ago
      No it isn't. http://www.dw.com/en/jean-claude-juncker-migrants-need-legal-ways-to-come-to-europe/a-41556151 http://www.dw.com/en/jean-claude-juncker-migrants-need-legal... Europe will clearly need immigration in the coming decades, so we have to provide those who want to come, and are able to come, and whose situation makes it possible for them to come, with legal paths to get to Europe. Why will it clearly need immigration? Because of demographics. https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-migration-migrants-are-here-to-stay-refugee-crisis/ https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-migration-migrants-ar... (written by Avramapolous, EU Migration Commissioner) The EU has granted protection to more than 700,000 people last year. They have found safety in Europe, but we also need to make sure they find a home. This is not only a moral imperative. It is also an economic and social imperative for our aging continent — and one of the biggest challenges for the near future. Note: aging continent. The people who control the EU do routinely state their belief that the EU needs mass migration from Africa for demographic and economic reasons.

baxtr 9y ago

I totally agree, I also noticed that this element was missing. A think, a crucial first step would be to stop population growth. This is very intrusive in people’s lives and hard to control as measure, but more than necessary. The footprint of a human being needs to be sustained by its local environment. Global effects are not helping, but in the end this problem requires a local solution.

jpatokal 9y ago
The world's population growth is screeching to a halt almost universally, even without China-style coercion. This includes India, where the total fertility rate has fallen from >6 in the 1950s to around 2.4 today, and the steady decline is set to continue.
- baxtr 9y ago
  Do have source for that on a country level?
  - jpatokal 9y ago
    The animation & sources here is a good starting point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
    - baxtr 9y ago
      I still don’t understand the relevance of your argument. No numbers are given on that page for India. Contrast that with this page, and you’ll see that India will increase its population quite significantly until 2030. How can you not see that this is a major problem? Just because Japan is ageging India won’t be saved. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...
      - ajeet_dhaliwal 9y ago
        Take a look at India’s tfr here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_territories_of_India_by_fertility_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_ter... ‘Population momentum’ will mean they keep growing for a 2-3 decades but the tfr is very low in many states (well below replacement level) but there are a couple of big poor states where it’s still higher than replacement level but still not anywhere near as high as it used to be. The damage was done in the 50s and 60s for the most part, people are having far fewer children today. In some wealthy states like Punjab and Kerala it’s far below replacement and in fact lower than even Western Europe and the USA.
- cc81 9y ago
  Last I've read the population growth has not reduced as quickly as hoped in Africa and soon most of the worlds population growth will happen there.
shripadk 9y ago
No population control is no longer a necessity. Hans Rosling explains it really well in this video: https://vimeo.com/79878808 https://vimeo.com/79878808
- mythrwy 9y ago
  Maybe globally it's not. Some regions however would eliminate a great amount of suffering were they able to implement it. Because at the end of the day population control comes around anyway.
  - baxtr 9y ago
    I am starting to think that Hans Rosling did some real harm. People confuse a global trend with a local one. In a World with borders, local overpopulation will lead to catastrophes, where millions could be affected.
    - shripadk 9y ago
      Overpopulation can be addressed by building more cities. Take India for example. Mumbai is overpopulated. The reason for this is that it's the financial hub of the country and also has a booming movie industry (Bollywood). But that will change once we have smart cities through the Smart Cities Mission: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Cities_Mission https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Cities_Mission This will lead to natural decongestion as industries will spread out over a larger area causing large populations to shift base. For instance, the Dholera Smart City (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOFpWFLSqgU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOFpWFLSqgU) based in Gujarat will become operational in 2019 (http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-dholera-smart-city-to-be-operational-by-2019-gujarat-govt-2221454 http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-dholera-smart-city-to-b...).

lozenge 9y ago

The population growth isn't a problem "yet" but it is a problem when those people want to develop (ie increase energy consumption). Hans Rosling explains it well: https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_and_the_magic_washing_machine/transcript https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_and_the_magic_washing...

singularity2001 9y ago
will energy consumption be less of an economic problem thanks to the break even of solar and coal?
- nabla9 9y ago
  World as a whole is hungry for energy. Industrialized nations have been able to reduce the link between economic growth and energy consumption, but the same is not true for the rest of the world. Globally alternate energy adds to the global energy production, it's not replacing. When the industrialized world moves to alternate energies, developing world can afford to consume more oil, gas and coal. When solar becomes cheaper, it makes hydrocarbons cheaper due to decreasing demand. I don't see how solar power replaces the global hydrocarbon production significantly before it's too late. It certainly will not do so in the short or medium term. Markets value large oil and coal companies and producers like the demand will continue. EIA estimates that global petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption and production are in constant upward path: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
  - marcosdumay 9y ago
    Fossil fuel production is highly competitive, so prices are pretty much set by the costs of the last marginal producer. If the world decreases its consumption, the prices may go down (possibly by a large amount). But any increase in consumption will very likely push the prices up, it does not matter it the competition between consumers is small.
spicymaki 9y ago

tapanjk 9y ago

> strangely missing is the one about population growth This. There was a time when population explosion was recognised as something to deal with. For the last decade or so, somehow this conversation has simply vanished (from the school books, from political discourse, from the news media). It is as if we, the citizens, have collectively given up on this issue and want to pretend that the issue does not exist. If I were to pick one single thing to start with, in order to reverse the current trend of environmental degradation, it would be population control. Unless this is addressed soon, it will be the root cause for the breakdown of the equilibrium of the environment and the social structure.

peoplewindow 9y ago
Well is that observation specific to India, or do you mean in the west? In the west it's disappeared because the projections were all wrong. The population in rich countries does not replace itself. Without large levels of immigration the population would start to decline. This is partly why the EU is trying to force mass migration on the member states - it's for several (stated) reasons, but one of them is a belief that otherwise the population will decline and the economy will shrink.
- RivieraKid 9y ago
  > This is partly why the EU is trying to force mass migration on the member states - it's for several (stated) reasons, but one of them is a belief that otherwise the population will decline and the economy will shrink. This is a completely unfounded speculation.
  - peoplewindow 9y ago
    No it isn't. http://www.dw.com/en/jean-claude-juncker-migrants-need-legal-ways-to-come-to-europe/a-41556151 http://www.dw.com/en/jean-claude-juncker-migrants-need-legal... Europe will clearly need immigration in the coming decades, so we have to provide those who want to come, and are able to come, and whose situation makes it possible for them to come, with legal paths to get to Europe. Why will it clearly need immigration? Because of demographics. https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-migration-migrants-are-here-to-stay-refugee-crisis/ https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-migration-migrants-ar... (written by Avramapolous, EU Migration Commissioner) The EU has granted protection to more than 700,000 people last year. They have found safety in Europe, but we also need to make sure they find a home. This is not only a moral imperative. It is also an economic and social imperative for our aging continent — and one of the biggest challenges for the near future. Note: aging continent. The people who control the EU do routinely state their belief that the EU needs mass migration from Africa for demographic and economic reasons.