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Stopping investing into a technology that is probably going to dominate the industry for the next 25 years might not be too smart. (EVs are coming, but they're

Stopping investing into a technology that is probably going to dominate the industry for the next 25 years might not be too smart. (EVs are coming, but they're quite far from accounting for >50% of the total vehicle sales.) It's a bit like telling Microsoft in 1990 that focusing on PCs is stupid because mobile computing is coming for sure. :)

gisely 9y ago
Considering that many countries have announced plans to fully eliminate gas and diesel engine production in less than 25 years (e.g. 2030 for China), I think it's quite unlikely that internal combustion engines will continue to dominate the industry for the next 25 years. Also, there is pretty big irony in the analogy that you make. Obviously, Microsoft moved too slowly to focus on mobile computing and they missed the boat. I'm hopeful that car companies which aren't focusing on EVs today will similarly be left behind in a few years.
- lttlrck 9y ago
  The huge used car market and the fact that ICE production will continue for as long as it is profitable muddies this timeline significantly. Sure ICEs could be legislated out of existence but that’d take a huge financial injection from the authorities - direct to the consumer and infrastructure. I don’t trust any authority to get this right in any sort of timely manner nor spend a the required money to make it happen.
kjksf 9y ago
You call it domination, I call it slow decline. Many governments have announced that by 2040 it'll be illegal to sell cars with such engines. They certainly won't be dominating in 22 years. The question is not "is this business going to be dead" but "when this business will be dead". So it's more like telling MicroPro to to stop investing in their cash cow DOS-based WordStar and port that app to Windows, because the writing is on the wall. MicrPro and many other companies were a bit asleep at the wheel during DOS -> Windows transition and that's why there's no MicroPro anymore and there's no WordStar anymore. Transition to electric motors will take a bit longer but the window to become a significant player in new technology is not infinite.
- BoorishBears 9y ago
  >Many governments have announced that by 2040 it'll be illegal to sell cars with such engines. Many governments? Mazda is a small company, they can't afford larger scale innovation and buying up battery factories so they're making due. ICEs are going to be around for a lot longer than the next two decades, and I'm highly doubtful they won't be dominating in 5 decades, let alone 2.
  - JetSpiegel 9y ago
    > Mazda is a small company Citation needed. 50k employees and 3e12 yen (20 billion dollars) in revenue in 2016.
    - BoorishBears 9y ago
      The context is car companies. Mazda: <9B$ Market Cap and 50k employees Ford: 40B Market Cap and 200k employees Volkswagen: 100B Market Cap And 600k employees Tesla is already at 30k employees... It’s very well known that on the scale of international car brands Mazda is a “small” company
      - craftyguy 9y ago
        Mazda in owned by Ford.. sooo....
        BoorishBears 9y ago
        Ford owns a stake in Mazda... ...so what? Mazda is still very small on the scale of international car brands. The other comment mentions Toyota as well, there are several companies with orders of magnitude more revenue and employees in the field with Mazda.
        huntie 9y ago
        Ford sold their stake in Mazda years ago, and lost a controlling stake in 2008. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazda#Partnership_with_Ford_Motor_Company https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazda#Partnership_with_Ford_Mo...
ebbv 9y ago
The ICE has about 10 years of dominance left. Maybe less. EVs aren’t coming, they are here. And they’re just getting better and cheaper.
- lttlrck 9y ago
  How many of the cars built today will still be on the road in 10 years? The average age of cars on the road today is 11 years. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-repair-maintenance/make-your-car-last-200-000-miles/ https://www.consumerreports.org/car-repair-maintenance/make-...
  - ebbv 9y ago
    Number of cars on the road is irrelevant to the issue at hand. The issue is what should Mazda focus on; its dominance of new car sales that is the relevant issue. And that’s where ICE vehicles have about 10 years or less until they are no longer the majority. Yes it will definitely take longer than 10 years for them to lose a majority on the roads.

gisely 9y ago

Considering that many countries have announced plans to fully eliminate gas and diesel engine production in less than 25 years (e.g. 2030 for China), I think it's quite unlikely that internal combustion engines will continue to dominate the industry for the next 25 years. Also, there is pretty big irony in the analogy that you make. Obviously, Microsoft moved too slowly to focus on mobile computing and they missed the boat. I'm hopeful that car companies which aren't focusing on EVs today will similarly be left behind in a few years.

lttlrck 9y ago
The huge used car market and the fact that ICE production will continue for as long as it is profitable muddies this timeline significantly. Sure ICEs could be legislated out of existence but that’d take a huge financial injection from the authorities - direct to the consumer and infrastructure. I don’t trust any authority to get this right in any sort of timely manner nor spend a the required money to make it happen.

kjksf 9y ago

You call it domination, I call it slow decline. Many governments have announced that by 2040 it'll be illegal to sell cars with such engines. They certainly won't be dominating in 22 years. The question is not "is this business going to be dead" but "when this business will be dead". So it's more like telling MicroPro to to stop investing in their cash cow DOS-based WordStar and port that app to Windows, because the writing is on the wall. MicrPro and many other companies were a bit asleep at the wheel during DOS -> Windows transition and that's why there's no MicroPro anymore and there's no WordStar anymore. Transition to electric motors will take a bit longer but the window to become a significant player in new technology is not infinite.

BoorishBears 9y ago
>Many governments have announced that by 2040 it'll be illegal to sell cars with such engines. Many governments? Mazda is a small company, they can't afford larger scale innovation and buying up battery factories so they're making due. ICEs are going to be around for a lot longer than the next two decades, and I'm highly doubtful they won't be dominating in 5 decades, let alone 2.
- JetSpiegel 9y ago
  > Mazda is a small company Citation needed. 50k employees and 3e12 yen (20 billion dollars) in revenue in 2016.
  - BoorishBears 9y ago
    The context is car companies. Mazda: <9B$ Market Cap and 50k employees Ford: 40B Market Cap and 200k employees Volkswagen: 100B Market Cap And 600k employees Tesla is already at 30k employees... It’s very well known that on the scale of international car brands Mazda is a “small” company
    - craftyguy 9y ago
      Mazda in owned by Ford.. sooo....
      - BoorishBears 9y ago
        Ford owns a stake in Mazda... ...so what? Mazda is still very small on the scale of international car brands. The other comment mentions Toyota as well, there are several companies with orders of magnitude more revenue and employees in the field with Mazda.
      - huntie 9y ago
        Ford sold their stake in Mazda years ago, and lost a controlling stake in 2008. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazda#Partnership_with_Ford_Motor_Company https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazda#Partnership_with_Ford_Mo...

ebbv 9y ago

The ICE has about 10 years of dominance left. Maybe less. EVs aren’t coming, they are here. And they’re just getting better and cheaper.

lttlrck 9y ago
How many of the cars built today will still be on the road in 10 years? The average age of cars on the road today is 11 years. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-repair-maintenance/make-your-car-last-200-000-miles/ https://www.consumerreports.org/car-repair-maintenance/make-...
- ebbv 9y ago
  Number of cars on the road is irrelevant to the issue at hand. The issue is what should Mazda focus on; its dominance of new car sales that is the relevant issue. And that’s where ICE vehicles have about 10 years or less until they are no longer the majority. Yes it will definitely take longer than 10 years for them to lose a majority on the roads.