It continually amazes me how tech people are blindsided by this problem. Every time. It's practically the entire reason that the Gartner hype curve is a thing:

It continually amazes me how tech people are blindsided by this problem. Every time. It's practically the entire reason that the Gartner hype curve is a thing: 1) New technology X appears. 2) Technology X develops quickly as the first 80% of gains are achieved. 3) Tech "luminaries" incorrectly extrapolate the rate of progress into a distant, glorious future; write breathless commentaries about how Technology X will eat the world in N years! 4) Technology X stagnates at the 81% progress mark, as it becomes clear that the green-field progress rate cannot be sustained. 5) Technology Y appears! Huzzah!