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Yes, it's Xeno's paradox (http://platonicrealms.com/encyclopedia/zenos-paradox-of-the-tortoise-and-achilles http://platonicrealms.com/encyclopedia/zenos-paradox

by d13 9y ago

Yes, it's Xeno's paradox (http://platonicrealms.com/encyclopedia/zenos-paradox-of-the-tortoise-and-achilles http://platonicrealms.com/encyclopedia/zenos-paradox-of-the-...). CGI has exactly that same problem - the first 99% is easy, the final 1% is impossible.

timr 9y ago
It continually amazes me how tech people are blindsided by this problem. Every time. It's practically the entire reason that the Gartner hype curve is a thing: 1) New technology X appears. 2) Technology X develops quickly as the first 80% of gains are achieved. 3) Tech "luminaries" incorrectly extrapolate the rate of progress into a distant, glorious future; write breathless commentaries about how Technology X will eat the world in N years! 4) Technology X stagnates at the 81% progress mark, as it becomes clear that the green-field progress rate cannot be sustained. 5) Technology Y appears! Huzzah!
ttul 9y ago
Kind of similar situation has developed in crypto currencies. Yes, we can now accumulate vast wealth and transfer it around. But still there are $500M heists. And transaction clearance takes way too long. Fixing these inconveniences will take a long time.
r00fus 9y ago
I don't see how Zeno's paradox applies here. The root assumption is that the work is asymptotic with some "goal" - in this case "as good as a human". Perhaps the real goal is actually "level 6 - better than human" or "level 7 futuristic transport". Looking at it that way, maybe that would indeed follow Zeno's paradox (we'll never get futuristic transport) but soon surpass how a human would drive permitting integration with human drivers (being more reliable and cheaper causing disruption). Ultimately, I think the main roadblock to automation in this realm are the vast entrenched interests (big oil, big auto) who'd lose out due to efficiency gains (just like with solar power and EVs).
- lukas099 9y ago
  Regarding your last point, doesn't 'big auto' comprise some of the largest investors in this technology?

by d13 9y ago

timr 9y ago

It continually amazes me how tech people are blindsided by this problem. Every time. It's practically the entire reason that the Gartner hype curve is a thing: 1) New technology X appears. 2) Technology X develops quickly as the first 80% of gains are achieved. 3) Tech "luminaries" incorrectly extrapolate the rate of progress into a distant, glorious future; write breathless commentaries about how Technology X will eat the world in N years! 4) Technology X stagnates at the 81% progress mark, as it becomes clear that the green-field progress rate cannot be sustained. 5) Technology Y appears! Huzzah!

ttul 9y ago

Kind of similar situation has developed in crypto currencies. Yes, we can now accumulate vast wealth and transfer it around. But still there are $500M heists. And transaction clearance takes way too long. Fixing these inconveniences will take a long time.

r00fus 9y ago

I don't see how Zeno's paradox applies here. The root assumption is that the work is asymptotic with some "goal" - in this case "as good as a human". Perhaps the real goal is actually "level 6 - better than human" or "level 7 futuristic transport". Looking at it that way, maybe that would indeed follow Zeno's paradox (we'll never get futuristic transport) but soon surpass how a human would drive permitting integration with human drivers (being more reliable and cheaper causing disruption). Ultimately, I think the main roadblock to automation in this realm are the vast entrenched interests (big oil, big auto) who'd lose out due to efficiency gains (just like with solar power and EVs).

lukas099 9y ago
Regarding your last point, doesn't 'big auto' comprise some of the largest investors in this technology?