4 ms·

Could be the best buying opportunity of the year. As someone involved in bitcoin since 2012, these cycles are pretty standard. It went from $1000 to around $25

Could be the best buying opportunity of the year. As someone involved in bitcoin since 2012, these cycles are pretty standard. It went from $1000 to around $250 iirc at one point and recovered. No reason it cant go from $20000 to $5000 and recover. It may take many years, but its not as if all crypto will die overnight. I see crypto being big in the more distant future, 15-20 years away when many of the problems are sorted out. Everyone is focused on the extreme short term.

adrianN 9y ago
Even if you assume that crypto will be successful in 20 years, there is no reason to believe that Bitcoin will still be around.
- JonnyNova 9y ago
  Very much this. Bitcoin is going to have problems scaling both on and off chain. Newer technology can re-examining of proven methodologies will probably yield a better way forward.
api 9y ago
Bitcoin could crash and never recover, but the tech and its descendants could indeed find uses in the future. "Cryptocurrency is a massive bubble" and "cryptocurrency and the tech behind it is a major innovation in distributed systems and finance" can both be true.
sunseb 9y ago
Yeah crypto will be big in the future, but Bitcoin (and all the current coins actually) : not sure...
halloij 9y ago
Bitcoin is more like the million dollar homepage, except the homepage grows by a few pixels each day. > its not as if all crypto will die overnight. I think you'll be surprised.
jacquesm 9y ago
> Could be the best buying opportunity of the year. It could be, but it also could not be. Content free comment. As for cycles: the big mistake people make when they see a cycle is to believe it will repeat forever.
- everdev 9y ago
  Yes, if you discovered any predictability or accurate forecasting in asset pricing you'd be the richest person alive. Markets suck up information so as you sell an "overvalued" asset, the price continues to drop until it's no longer overvalued. No one has figured out a way to repeatedly and constantly predict the market.
notahacker 9y ago
It seems like a bit of a stretch to argue that a major scam just starting to unravel represents "the best buying opportunity of the year". Buy when it appears to be just about to crash said no investor, ever. But I can see how holding large amounts of Bitcoin you want to shift could distort that perspective...
btctw12345 9y ago
Crypto may win but what makes you think it will be Bitcoin? Bitcoin is useless as a currency right now because of fees and transaction times. If that doesn't get fixed than what purpose does it serve?
- lawlessone 9y ago
  lightning network will fix much of that.
JonnyNova 9y ago
> No reason it cant go from $20000 to $5000 and recover. There are plenty of reasons why it could never recover. The previous cycles happened with a very different environment and context for bitcoin. This time Bitcoin has just hit mainstream. This cycle will very likely crush the mainstream's faith in Bitcoin to where it will never recover.
- FiveSquared 9y ago
  That’s true, but however, what if Bitcoin goes on like the Video Game Crash of 1983, the Second AI Winter, etc. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
  - JonnyNova 9y ago
    Apples to oranges, Bitcoin isn't cryptos as a whole. Future cryptos will absolutely succeed Bitcoin.
    - lloyd-christmas 9y ago
      Their comment is based on historical facts, making it apples and oranges. Your speculation has no substance, but is 'absolutely' true? I'm not sure I follow that logic.
      - JonnyNova 9y ago
        The apples to oranges is in reference to comparing Bitcoin to the AI's as a whole. AI as a whole survived the winter but a random implementation from 1985 did not. My comment was comparing Bitcoin as an implementation of a cryptocurrency to previous implementations of AI that have generated hype and then became either irrelevant or obsolete.
        lloyd-christmas 9y ago
bby 9y ago
I see this as one of the best times to short CME/CBOE BTC futures in the short/medium term. The market is VERY tilted towards being long, in fact, everyone is long crypto. It's likely people will sell a little bit into their losses and if a more major correction occurs, there is a HIGH risk of panic selling. There is so much uncertainty with Tether/Bitfinex that I'm surprised it's "hodling" 9000 still.
segmondy 9y ago
You are just another of those speculators wishing for the price to go up, hence the reason for hiding behind your throwaway account.

adrianN 9y ago

Even if you assume that crypto will be successful in 20 years, there is no reason to believe that Bitcoin will still be around.

JonnyNova 9y ago
Very much this. Bitcoin is going to have problems scaling both on and off chain. Newer technology can re-examining of proven methodologies will probably yield a better way forward.

api 9y ago

Bitcoin could crash and never recover, but the tech and its descendants could indeed find uses in the future. "Cryptocurrency is a massive bubble" and "cryptocurrency and the tech behind it is a major innovation in distributed systems and finance" can both be true.

sunseb 9y ago

Yeah crypto will be big in the future, but Bitcoin (and all the current coins actually) : not sure...

halloij 9y ago

Bitcoin is more like the million dollar homepage, except the homepage grows by a few pixels each day. > its not as if all crypto will die overnight. I think you'll be surprised.

jacquesm 9y ago

> Could be the best buying opportunity of the year. It could be, but it also could not be. Content free comment. As for cycles: the big mistake people make when they see a cycle is to believe it will repeat forever.

everdev 9y ago
Yes, if you discovered any predictability or accurate forecasting in asset pricing you'd be the richest person alive. Markets suck up information so as you sell an "overvalued" asset, the price continues to drop until it's no longer overvalued. No one has figured out a way to repeatedly and constantly predict the market.

notahacker 9y ago

It seems like a bit of a stretch to argue that a major scam just starting to unravel represents "the best buying opportunity of the year". Buy when it appears to be just about to crash said no investor, ever. But I can see how holding large amounts of Bitcoin you want to shift could distort that perspective...

btctw12345 9y ago

Crypto may win but what makes you think it will be Bitcoin? Bitcoin is useless as a currency right now because of fees and transaction times. If that doesn't get fixed than what purpose does it serve?

lawlessone 9y ago
lightning network will fix much of that.

JonnyNova 9y ago

> No reason it cant go from $20000 to $5000 and recover. There are plenty of reasons why it could never recover. The previous cycles happened with a very different environment and context for bitcoin. This time Bitcoin has just hit mainstream. This cycle will very likely crush the mainstream's faith in Bitcoin to where it will never recover.

FiveSquared 9y ago
That’s true, but however, what if Bitcoin goes on like the Video Game Crash of 1983, the Second AI Winter, etc. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
- JonnyNova 9y ago
  Apples to oranges, Bitcoin isn't cryptos as a whole. Future cryptos will absolutely succeed Bitcoin.
  - lloyd-christmas 9y ago
    Their comment is based on historical facts, making it apples and oranges. Your speculation has no substance, but is 'absolutely' true? I'm not sure I follow that logic.
    - JonnyNova 9y ago
      The apples to oranges is in reference to comparing Bitcoin to the AI's as a whole. AI as a whole survived the winter but a random implementation from 1985 did not. My comment was comparing Bitcoin as an implementation of a cryptocurrency to previous implementations of AI that have generated hype and then became either irrelevant or obsolete.
      - lloyd-christmas 9y ago

bby 9y ago

I see this as one of the best times to short CME/CBOE BTC futures in the short/medium term. The market is VERY tilted towards being long, in fact, everyone is long crypto. It's likely people will sell a little bit into their losses and if a more major correction occurs, there is a HIGH risk of panic selling. There is so much uncertainty with Tether/Bitfinex that I'm surprised it's "hodling" 9000 still.

segmondy 9y ago

You are just another of those speculators wishing for the price to go up, hence the reason for hiding behind your throwaway account.