4 ms·

I'm disputing the prediction that the future, if we remain on our current course, will be more of the same. Here's what you said, "If the past 40 years are a gu

by jshen 16y ago

I'm disputing the prediction that the future, if we remain on our current course, will be more of the same. Here's what you said, "If the past 40 years are a guide to the future". I'm disputing the idea that income inequality doesn't mean anything because the "poor" will have a higher standard of living that the middle class does today. Again, incomes are on the decline for most americans, and energy prices are rising. There is no way that we will get more of the same if that remains true. Also, most people I know live in smaller houses than their parents, but that's purely anecdotal and based on the obvious fact that there are more people living on the same amount of earth. I happen to live in a major city.

pchristensen 16y ago
"most people I know live in smaller houses than their parents" But do they live in smaller houses than their parents lived when they were your friends' age?
- jshen 16y ago
  yes, but I live in L.A. and I'm sure it's different in most parts of the country. I make way more money than my parents or grandparents, even when adjusted for inflation, but I live in a much smaller place than they did.
  - nostrademons 16y ago
    I'm curious - do you live in a way smaller space than your parents did when you grew up, or when they were your age? When I compare my current living space with the house I grew up in, it's significantly smaller. However, my parents were over 40 years old by the time I have my first memories. They'd been saving for close to 20 years to afford that place, while I've been saving for maybe 5 years. When my mom was my age, she lived in a 4th floor walk-up with one of her friends from college. And yes, it was smaller than my current apartment. If you compare my mom's childhood with my childhood, she lived in a small apartment almost her whole life, until about 3 years before I was born, while I grew up in a house in the suburbs. I wonder if this is behind a lot of the 20-something angst. We compare our current living standards to our living standards as children, and realize (correctly) that it's not as good. However, that childhood living standard is based on parents that were already at the peak of their careers, and had scrimped for years to get there. Of course we're not going to live as well.
    - jshen 16y ago
      I'm not a 20-something.
      - Unseelie 16y ago
        We're still safe to assume your parents are around 20 years older than you.
        jshen 16y ago
        right, but the comment I was replying to was focused on the idea that I'm an angstful 20-something who is just starting a professional career. I'm not, and i have a much smaller place than my parents did at my age. 1200 sq/ft vs 3000ish sq/ft. I think my theory holds for areas that have already developed most of the available land. As population density increases we'll have smaller places than the generation before us in areas that have very little new land to develop. I actually don't care that my place is smaller, and a bigger place wouldn't increase my quality of life much.
  - pchristensen 16y ago
    Touche. In order to get an accurate comparison, you'd have to compare to someone your age living in a city as large and dense as LA at the time they were your age. That probably means NYC, London, or Tokyo for your parents or grandparents since there weren't many megacities 30 or 60 years ago.
    - jshen 16y ago
      Your trying to make the population density a constant, my point is that it isn't a constant, but will likely increase going forward.
yummyfajitas 16y ago
A quick google search finds many links suggesting house sizes have gone way up. This one says 1500ft^2 in 1973, 2500ft^2 in 2006. http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2007032701?OpenDocument http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2007032701?Ope... In spite of the purported declining income and increasing energy prices, people in 2007 have more and better material goods and services than in 1967, far more than the mere $10k increase in real incomes would predict. You could be right, the next 40 years may be different from the last 40 - I'll leave predicting the future to you and Ray Kurzweil.
- jshen 16y ago
  "I'll leave predicting the future to you and Ray Kurzweil." Except that you did try to predict the future earlier. Energy prices haven't risen much yet. You have an odd pattern of dodging my main point, and picking at tangential details. Btw, I put a caveat on the house thing, I live in a major city and I'm sure it's different in most parts of the country. I'll bet this changes when driving long distances to work becomes much more expensive.
  - yummyfajitas 16y ago
    I didn't try to predict the future - I explicitly qualified that everything I wrote applied only under certain circumstances: "If the past 40 years are a guide to the future..." You even quoted my qualification. As for dodging your main point, let me address it more carefully now. You seem to believe that incomes (by which I assume you mean income adjusted for CPI) is decreasing. And yet, over a period in which CPI adjusted incomes remained flat, quality of life dramatically increased. So why do you believe that decreasing CPI-adjusted incomes are worth worrying about?
    - jshen 16y ago
      " why do you believe that decreasing CPI-adjusted incomes are worth worrying about?" I've said it at least three times already. Because it is highly probable that energy prices are going to increase significantly. Btw, how do you measure quality of life. I always find it funny when people throw around that term relating to economics.
deleted 16y ago
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by jshen 16y ago

pchristensen 16y ago

"most people I know live in smaller houses than their parents" But do they live in smaller houses than their parents lived when they were your friends' age?

jshen 16y ago
yes, but I live in L.A. and I'm sure it's different in most parts of the country. I make way more money than my parents or grandparents, even when adjusted for inflation, but I live in a much smaller place than they did.
- nostrademons 16y ago
  I'm curious - do you live in a way smaller space than your parents did when you grew up, or when they were your age? When I compare my current living space with the house I grew up in, it's significantly smaller. However, my parents were over 40 years old by the time I have my first memories. They'd been saving for close to 20 years to afford that place, while I've been saving for maybe 5 years. When my mom was my age, she lived in a 4th floor walk-up with one of her friends from college. And yes, it was smaller than my current apartment. If you compare my mom's childhood with my childhood, she lived in a small apartment almost her whole life, until about 3 years before I was born, while I grew up in a house in the suburbs. I wonder if this is behind a lot of the 20-something angst. We compare our current living standards to our living standards as children, and realize (correctly) that it's not as good. However, that childhood living standard is based on parents that were already at the peak of their careers, and had scrimped for years to get there. Of course we're not going to live as well.
  - jshen 16y ago
    I'm not a 20-something.
    - Unseelie 16y ago
      We're still safe to assume your parents are around 20 years older than you.
      - jshen 16y ago
        right, but the comment I was replying to was focused on the idea that I'm an angstful 20-something who is just starting a professional career. I'm not, and i have a much smaller place than my parents did at my age. 1200 sq/ft vs 3000ish sq/ft. I think my theory holds for areas that have already developed most of the available land. As population density increases we'll have smaller places than the generation before us in areas that have very little new land to develop. I actually don't care that my place is smaller, and a bigger place wouldn't increase my quality of life much.
- pchristensen 16y ago
  Touche. In order to get an accurate comparison, you'd have to compare to someone your age living in a city as large and dense as LA at the time they were your age. That probably means NYC, London, or Tokyo for your parents or grandparents since there weren't many megacities 30 or 60 years ago.
  - jshen 16y ago
    Your trying to make the population density a constant, my point is that it isn't a constant, but will likely increase going forward.

yummyfajitas 16y ago

A quick google search finds many links suggesting house sizes have gone way up. This one says 1500ft^2 in 1973, 2500ft^2 in 2006. http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2007032701?OpenDocument http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2007032701?Ope... In spite of the purported declining income and increasing energy prices, people in 2007 have more and better material goods and services than in 1967, far more than the mere $10k increase in real incomes would predict. You could be right, the next 40 years may be different from the last 40 - I'll leave predicting the future to you and Ray Kurzweil.

jshen 16y ago
"I'll leave predicting the future to you and Ray Kurzweil." Except that you did try to predict the future earlier. Energy prices haven't risen much yet. You have an odd pattern of dodging my main point, and picking at tangential details. Btw, I put a caveat on the house thing, I live in a major city and I'm sure it's different in most parts of the country. I'll bet this changes when driving long distances to work becomes much more expensive.
- yummyfajitas 16y ago
  I didn't try to predict the future - I explicitly qualified that everything I wrote applied only under certain circumstances: "If the past 40 years are a guide to the future..." You even quoted my qualification. As for dodging your main point, let me address it more carefully now. You seem to believe that incomes (by which I assume you mean income adjusted for CPI) is decreasing. And yet, over a period in which CPI adjusted incomes remained flat, quality of life dramatically increased. So why do you believe that decreasing CPI-adjusted incomes are worth worrying about?
  - jshen 16y ago
    " why do you believe that decreasing CPI-adjusted incomes are worth worrying about?" I've said it at least three times already. Because it is highly probable that energy prices are going to increase significantly. Btw, how do you measure quality of life. I always find it funny when people throw around that term relating to economics.

deleted 16y ago

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