4 ms·

Also worth noting that even a 30% tariff on panels just makes them cost about what they did in 2015. It does nothing to the other significant costs of solar tec

by hughes 9y ago

Also worth noting that even a 30% tariff on panels just makes them cost about what they did in 2015. It does nothing to the other significant costs of solar tech - inverters, supporting structures, land, installation labor. At worst it will delay solar adoption by a couple of years.

phil248 9y ago
And prices continue to drop precipitously. Given the tariff phase out, the market will probably return to 2017 equivalent in short order, and then continue to get cheaper in spite of the tariffs.
sitkack 9y ago
I am no economist, but the tariff could end up accelerating the decrease in prices as the foreign producers have a steeper gradient to overcome. If they are indeed dumping at below cost, they could also respond by lowering prices by the tariff amount. If the tariff is applied to foreign assembled units, they could onshore the final assembly. Or start bundling non-tariffed systems so they are still cheaper in the end. I could envision a cargo container with the panels and strandbeest-accordian support structure, plant on end in the ground and it would automatically unfurl (high school bleachers but with an alternating Z pattern) as the container moves along. Even with a lower pack density, deployment in hours would save the overall system cost. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Jansen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Jansen
- epistasis 9y ago
  The proposed tariff allows for only 2.5GW of cell imports that are assembled into full modules in the US. Manufacturers are already lining up to see who is going to be allowed to get into that small quota. Given that it's going to take a bare minimum of 18 months and probably several years to build a new cell manufacturing facility, and the length of life of such a facility, somebody looking at building new capacity would get a year or two of tariff protection, and then have to survive another few decades without it.

by hughes 9y ago

phil248 9y ago

And prices continue to drop precipitously. Given the tariff phase out, the market will probably return to 2017 equivalent in short order, and then continue to get cheaper in spite of the tariffs.

sitkack 9y ago

I am no economist, but the tariff could end up accelerating the decrease in prices as the foreign producers have a steeper gradient to overcome. If they are indeed dumping at below cost, they could also respond by lowering prices by the tariff amount. If the tariff is applied to foreign assembled units, they could onshore the final assembly. Or start bundling non-tariffed systems so they are still cheaper in the end. I could envision a cargo container with the panels and strandbeest-accordian support structure, plant on end in the ground and it would automatically unfurl (high school bleachers but with an alternating Z pattern) as the container moves along. Even with a lower pack density, deployment in hours would save the overall system cost. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Jansen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Jansen

epistasis 9y ago
The proposed tariff allows for only 2.5GW of cell imports that are assembled into full modules in the US. Manufacturers are already lining up to see who is going to be allowed to get into that small quota. Given that it's going to take a bare minimum of 18 months and probably several years to build a new cell manufacturing facility, and the length of life of such a facility, somebody looking at building new capacity would get a year or two of tariff protection, and then have to survive another few decades without it.