3 ms·

This appears to have come before the recent 30% Solar panel import tariff. Can anybody else confirm that the bids that include solar would not be possible today

This appears to have come before the recent 30% Solar panel import tariff. Can anybody else confirm that the bids that include solar would not be possible today?

epistasis 9y ago
These bids are for projects that go into service by 2023. It's extremely unlikely that this tariff will last even two years. Similarly enacted section 201 tariffs get squashed the next time the WTO considers them. If, by some implausible and disastrous series of events we are taken into a trade war and the current tariffs stand, they decrease by 5% each year, to 10%. So its safe to say that they will have as little impact on the bids 5 years from now as they do on increasing US manufacturing.
- hughes 9y ago
  Also worth noting that even a 30% tariff on panels just makes them cost about what they did in 2015. It does nothing to the other significant costs of solar tech - inverters, supporting structures, land, installation labor. At worst it will delay solar adoption by a couple of years.
  - phil248 9y ago
    And prices continue to drop precipitously. Given the tariff phase out, the market will probably return to 2017 equivalent in short order, and then continue to get cheaper in spite of the tariffs.
  - sitkack 9y ago
    I am no economist, but the tariff could end up accelerating the decrease in prices as the foreign producers have a steeper gradient to overcome. If they are indeed dumping at below cost, they could also respond by lowering prices by the tariff amount. If the tariff is applied to foreign assembled units, they could onshore the final assembly. Or start bundling non-tariffed systems so they are still cheaper in the end. I could envision a cargo container with the panels and strandbeest-accordian support structure, plant on end in the ground and it would automatically unfurl (high school bleachers but with an alternating Z pattern) as the container moves along. Even with a lower pack density, deployment in hours would save the overall system cost. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Jansen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Jansen
    - epistasis 9y ago
      The proposed tariff allows for only 2.5GW of cell imports that are assembled into full modules in the US. Manufacturers are already lining up to see who is going to be allowed to get into that small quota. Given that it's going to take a bare minimum of 18 months and probably several years to build a new cell manufacturing facility, and the length of life of such a facility, somebody looking at building new capacity would get a year or two of tariff protection, and then have to survive another few decades without it.

This appears to have come before the recent 30% Solar panel import tariff. Can anybody else confirm that the bids that include solar would not be possible today?

epistasis 9y ago

These bids are for projects that go into service by 2023. It's extremely unlikely that this tariff will last even two years. Similarly enacted section 201 tariffs get squashed the next time the WTO considers them. If, by some implausible and disastrous series of events we are taken into a trade war and the current tariffs stand, they decrease by 5% each year, to 10%. So its safe to say that they will have as little impact on the bids 5 years from now as they do on increasing US manufacturing.

hughes 9y ago
Also worth noting that even a 30% tariff on panels just makes them cost about what they did in 2015. It does nothing to the other significant costs of solar tech - inverters, supporting structures, land, installation labor. At worst it will delay solar adoption by a couple of years.
- phil248 9y ago
  And prices continue to drop precipitously. Given the tariff phase out, the market will probably return to 2017 equivalent in short order, and then continue to get cheaper in spite of the tariffs.
- sitkack 9y ago
  I am no economist, but the tariff could end up accelerating the decrease in prices as the foreign producers have a steeper gradient to overcome. If they are indeed dumping at below cost, they could also respond by lowering prices by the tariff amount. If the tariff is applied to foreign assembled units, they could onshore the final assembly. Or start bundling non-tariffed systems so they are still cheaper in the end. I could envision a cargo container with the panels and strandbeest-accordian support structure, plant on end in the ground and it would automatically unfurl (high school bleachers but with an alternating Z pattern) as the container moves along. Even with a lower pack density, deployment in hours would save the overall system cost. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Jansen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Jansen
  - epistasis 9y ago
    The proposed tariff allows for only 2.5GW of cell imports that are assembled into full modules in the US. Manufacturers are already lining up to see who is going to be allowed to get into that small quota. Given that it's going to take a bare minimum of 18 months and probably several years to build a new cell manufacturing facility, and the length of life of such a facility, somebody looking at building new capacity would get a year or two of tariff protection, and then have to survive another few decades without it.