6 ms·

> "War is illegal. This idea seems obvious. Yet that one rule is broken multiple times a year by multiple nations in multiple regions on earth.

coding123 9y ago
I think the jist is that this was still successful because if the UN didn't exist we may have already had 7 additional multination wars (that is if the first 2 didn't kill everyone). Of course we don't know for sure if that would have happened.
Diederich 9y ago
It's a process. The point is that there is far less war going on now than ever before, on a population adjusted basis.
- adventured 9y ago
  Further to that point, there hasn't been a serious war between major powers in seven decades. One of the longest stretches in recorded history. Overwhelmingly what we've seen in the way of war deaths since WW2, is in civil war and genocides by Socialist, Communist and Fascist regimes.
  - maccard 9y ago
    Don't forget that the US has had a hand in very many of those wars, and have been responsible for massive amounts of deaths in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq.
eloisant 9y ago
Including by the countries supposed to enforce the rule (UN security council: Russia who annexed Crimea, China building illegal islands in the Pacific, US who started wars based on lies for oil..)
- adventured 9y ago
  Which wars did the US start on a lie for oil?
  - buttcoinslol 9y ago
    You already know which one. Halliburton share prices from 2003-2005: https://i.imgur.com/UgPNCBg.gif https://i.imgur.com/UgPNCBg.gif NY Times article about the division of Iraq oilfields: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/business/energy-environment/15iht-srerussia15.html http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/business/energy-environmen...
    - adventured 9y ago
      That's a false context setup. Show me Halliburton's chart where it collapsed down to $16 in 2008 after the commodity bubble burst. All commodity companies and prices soared at the same time, it wasn't at all isolated to Halliburton or oil. That was due to a debased dollar, which also sent all dollar-based GDP numbers skyrocketing around the world simultaneously. Go to Google and type in: "Czech GDP" or "Colombia GDP" (or dozens of other nations) and witness the incredible spike from ~2003 to ~2008, that's the dollar in action (ie the dollar losing value). Gold similarly soared historically for the same reason. It all crashed simultaneously as well. Those GDP figures almost all have gone down since ~2013, that's the dollar in action again, this time the dollar gained immense strength which sent oil down to ~$26. Iraq's oil production is at an all-time high, and that oil belongs to them. They're currently directly competing with the vast US domestic oil production. If the US had started the Iraqi war over oil, it wouldn't have willingly left Iraq when asked to, and it would have used its military to lock up all the oil contracts and supply coming out of Iraq, for itself and its closest allies, effectively annexing the oil. That didn't happen.
      - deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
    - pebers 9y ago
      That graph doesn't show an obvious uptick after the big red "WAR" dot. It's growing fast but seemingly was before just as much. What's it supposed to prove?
topleveldomain 9y ago
The data shows a downward trend in interstate conflicts, colonial conflicts, and per capita battle deaths since the 40's. Civil conflicts peaked in the early 90's, but nukes aren't a factor in those. Source: https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C3%A5rd,%20Strand,%20Urdal%20-%20Trends%20in%20Armed%20Conflict,%20Conflict%20Trends%201-2016.pdf https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C...
- kiliantics 9y ago
  There is other research[0] (also recently posted to HN, though it got a lot less traction than Gates and Pinker), that claims this trend may very likely not be there. It's very hard to prove. [0] http://www.mn.uio.no/math/english/research/projects/focustat/the-focustat-blog%21/krigogfred.html http://www.mn.uio.no/math/english/research/projects/focustat...
rictic 9y ago
The fact that a law is broken is not a counterexample of the law existing. War was once the default, and lauded. Now it is the exception, and is decried and worked against. When a war happens we ask ourselves why, and the international community works to try to prevent it the next time. That would be truly alien to a world leader even a couple centuries ago.

coding123 9y ago

I think the jist is that this was still successful because if the UN didn't exist we may have already had 7 additional multination wars (that is if the first 2 didn't kill everyone). Of course we don't know for sure if that would have happened.

Diederich 9y ago

It's a process. The point is that there is far less war going on now than ever before, on a population adjusted basis.

adventured 9y ago
Further to that point, there hasn't been a serious war between major powers in seven decades. One of the longest stretches in recorded history. Overwhelmingly what we've seen in the way of war deaths since WW2, is in civil war and genocides by Socialist, Communist and Fascist regimes.
- maccard 9y ago
  Don't forget that the US has had a hand in very many of those wars, and have been responsible for massive amounts of deaths in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq.

eloisant 9y ago

Including by the countries supposed to enforce the rule (UN security council: Russia who annexed Crimea, China building illegal islands in the Pacific, US who started wars based on lies for oil..)

adventured 9y ago
Which wars did the US start on a lie for oil?
- buttcoinslol 9y ago
  You already know which one. Halliburton share prices from 2003-2005: https://i.imgur.com/UgPNCBg.gif https://i.imgur.com/UgPNCBg.gif NY Times article about the division of Iraq oilfields: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/business/energy-environment/15iht-srerussia15.html http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/business/energy-environmen...
  - adventured 9y ago
    That's a false context setup. Show me Halliburton's chart where it collapsed down to $16 in 2008 after the commodity bubble burst. All commodity companies and prices soared at the same time, it wasn't at all isolated to Halliburton or oil. That was due to a debased dollar, which also sent all dollar-based GDP numbers skyrocketing around the world simultaneously. Go to Google and type in: "Czech GDP" or "Colombia GDP" (or dozens of other nations) and witness the incredible spike from ~2003 to ~2008, that's the dollar in action (ie the dollar losing value). Gold similarly soared historically for the same reason. It all crashed simultaneously as well. Those GDP figures almost all have gone down since ~2013, that's the dollar in action again, this time the dollar gained immense strength which sent oil down to ~$26. Iraq's oil production is at an all-time high, and that oil belongs to them. They're currently directly competing with the vast US domestic oil production. If the US had started the Iraqi war over oil, it wouldn't have willingly left Iraq when asked to, and it would have used its military to lock up all the oil contracts and supply coming out of Iraq, for itself and its closest allies, effectively annexing the oil. That didn't happen.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
  - pebers 9y ago
    That graph doesn't show an obvious uptick after the big red "WAR" dot. It's growing fast but seemingly was before just as much. What's it supposed to prove?

topleveldomain 9y ago

The data shows a downward trend in interstate conflicts, colonial conflicts, and per capita battle deaths since the 40's. Civil conflicts peaked in the early 90's, but nukes aren't a factor in those. Source: https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C3%A5rd,%20Strand,%20Urdal%20-%20Trends%20in%20Armed%20Conflict,%20Conflict%20Trends%201-2016.pdf https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C...

kiliantics 9y ago
There is other research[0] (also recently posted to HN, though it got a lot less traction than Gates and Pinker), that claims this trend may very likely not be there. It's very hard to prove. [0] http://www.mn.uio.no/math/english/research/projects/focustat/the-focustat-blog%21/krigogfred.html http://www.mn.uio.no/math/english/research/projects/focustat...

rictic 9y ago

The fact that a law is broken is not a counterexample of the law existing. War was once the default, and lauded. Now it is the exception, and is decried and worked against. When a war happens we ask ourselves why, and the international community works to try to prevent it the next time. That would be truly alien to a world leader even a couple centuries ago.