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The direct income that he'll receive from this book won't even register as a tenth of a percent on his income statement. So clearly, he's not doing it for pure

by nickb 19y ago

The direct income that he'll receive from this book won't even register as a tenth of a percent on his income statement. So clearly, he's not doing it for pure sensationalism. I actually think he believes what he's saying.

phaedrus 19y ago
Plus I don't think he can be faulted for thinking a recession was coming the first time he predicted it - maybe the signs were there that one was coming, but just didn't happen, or was delayed until now when it will finally hit harder.
mynameishere 19y ago
The direct income that he'll receive from this book Two commenters now seem to think that Soros wants to sell books for money. No, he's going for his shot of glory--the guy who predicted the apocolypse. Trouble is, everyone's doing that lately...
- timr 19y ago
  He's going a lot further than the rest: acknowledging that the fundamental driver of economic growth for the past few decades (cheap money) is unsustainable. Most people are predicting bad things about the housing market and the credit system, but stopping short of analyzing the implications; Soros is one of the few people taking the next logical step.
  - trevelyan 19y ago
    It's worse than that. Soros is saying that "cheap money" in the US has been caused by a ponzi-scheme in US asset markets. Capital inflows pushed up prices and attracted more investment, which pushed up prices and attracted more investment... Now that people are taking money out prices will fall and obliterate a lot of wealth that exists only on paper. There's no question that what he's describing has happened. The real uncertainty is over the scale. This could be very significant, or it could be insignificant. Soros is implying that this sort of speculative investment dominates US markets and is the reason the USD hasn't followed fundamentals for the last ten years. Not much mention of this in the news, but Hong Kong and Singapore have just adjusted their basket peg to the USD. Reduced demand for USD by major debt-holders means reduced demand for USD assets.
    - wallflower 19y ago
      Also China has hinted at using its $900bn in US Treasuries as political ammunition
      - yummyfajitas 19y ago
        Unlikely. Debt we owe china is leverage we have over them. If they tried to use it for political purposes, all we need to do is say "we're not paying." For bonus points, we can also say "100% tariffs on chinese goods." All of a sudden, $900 billion of China's assets are toast. This will hurt their credit rating as much as ours (do they have any collateral anymore?). Debt between nations is not the same as debt you owe to the bank.
mnemonicsloth 19y ago
Yes, yes, but the parent commenter is right in spirit. Soros is richer than god, so he's working to satisfy other ambitions now. From the economist article mentioned below: The 77-year-old hedge-fund supremo and slayer of sterling has nothing to prove financially (he is worth upwards of $8 billion). Intellectually, however, he has long been frustrated at not being taken seriously. Just as he was about to give up, along came a debacle that, he believes, validates his Weltanschauung. That fits pretty well with the carefully hidden acknowledgement that this isn't news: And yet this is not the first time that Mr. Soros has prophesied doom. In 1998, he published a book predicting a global economic collapse that never came. This article is about two things: the general hysteria of a generation of workers who have never seen a real recession; and a rich man in his final years trying to leverage his wealth into a legacy. They're both pandering. Economist article here: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10992042 http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1...

by nickb 19y ago

phaedrus 19y ago

Plus I don't think he can be faulted for thinking a recession was coming the first time he predicted it - maybe the signs were there that one was coming, but just didn't happen, or was delayed until now when it will finally hit harder.

mynameishere 19y ago

The direct income that he'll receive from this book Two commenters now seem to think that Soros wants to sell books for money. No, he's going for his shot of glory--the guy who predicted the apocolypse. Trouble is, everyone's doing that lately...

timr 19y ago
He's going a lot further than the rest: acknowledging that the fundamental driver of economic growth for the past few decades (cheap money) is unsustainable. Most people are predicting bad things about the housing market and the credit system, but stopping short of analyzing the implications; Soros is one of the few people taking the next logical step.
- trevelyan 19y ago
  It's worse than that. Soros is saying that "cheap money" in the US has been caused by a ponzi-scheme in US asset markets. Capital inflows pushed up prices and attracted more investment, which pushed up prices and attracted more investment... Now that people are taking money out prices will fall and obliterate a lot of wealth that exists only on paper. There's no question that what he's describing has happened. The real uncertainty is over the scale. This could be very significant, or it could be insignificant. Soros is implying that this sort of speculative investment dominates US markets and is the reason the USD hasn't followed fundamentals for the last ten years. Not much mention of this in the news, but Hong Kong and Singapore have just adjusted their basket peg to the USD. Reduced demand for USD by major debt-holders means reduced demand for USD assets.
  - wallflower 19y ago
    Also China has hinted at using its $900bn in US Treasuries as political ammunition
    - yummyfajitas 19y ago
      Unlikely. Debt we owe china is leverage we have over them. If they tried to use it for political purposes, all we need to do is say "we're not paying." For bonus points, we can also say "100% tariffs on chinese goods." All of a sudden, $900 billion of China's assets are toast. This will hurt their credit rating as much as ours (do they have any collateral anymore?). Debt between nations is not the same as debt you owe to the bank.

mnemonicsloth 19y ago

Yes, yes, but the parent commenter is right in spirit. Soros is richer than god, so he's working to satisfy other ambitions now. From the economist article mentioned below: The 77-year-old hedge-fund supremo and slayer of sterling has nothing to prove financially (he is worth upwards of $8 billion). Intellectually, however, he has long been frustrated at not being taken seriously. Just as he was about to give up, along came a debacle that, he believes, validates his Weltanschauung. That fits pretty well with the carefully hidden acknowledgement that this isn't news: And yet this is not the first time that Mr. Soros has prophesied doom. In 1998, he published a book predicting a global economic collapse that never came. This article is about two things: the general hysteria of a generation of workers who have never seen a real recession; and a rich man in his final years trying to leverage his wealth into a legacy. They're both pandering. Economist article here: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10992042 http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1...