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> The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. Cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Applied neural networks. Automation. Good electric cars. To the point wh

> The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. Cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Applied neural networks. Automation. Good electric cars. To the point where people are prepaying for something that might be built in a few years. Good cheap batteries.

aphextron 9y ago
>Cryptocurrencies and ICOs. What value is being created here, exactly? There's plenty of idealistic notions being thrown around, but I've yet to see a single, real, useful product or service materialize >Applied neural networks. Same. >Automation. This is way too broad to be invested in. Of course the world is automating at a greater rate, but is this a cause for growth? Will automated factories produce more goods for the same consumers? >Good electric cars. To the point where people are prepaying for something that might be built in a few years. Again, how is this growth? People will simply replace their existing cars at a known rate with electric cars as they become available/affordable >Good cheap batteries. Granted this one would be a technological revolution greater than the internet, but it's just a fantasy for now. I think the grandparent is dead on here. Real inflation is 10 times the official rate since the mid 2000s. We are all playing with funny money these days, and this won't end well.
- adamclayman 9y ago
  > Again, how is this growth? People will simply replace their existing cars at a known rate with electric cars as they become available/affordable Since driverless vehicles and fleets are arriving roughly concurrent to electric vehicles, they're actually more likely to _reduce_ the volume of cars produced, after accounting for any increased, accelerated "fleet churn" buyers exert via aggregate demand to reach a faster critical mass on increasingly or perfectly safe cars.
  - inventtheday 9y ago
    Disagree. This is hotly debated, but, i think that the growth in demand for transportation will be so staggering (when AV's are introduced) it will more than offset efficiency for a long while.
  - vonmoltke 9y ago
    > Since driverless vehicles and fleets are arriving roughly concurrent I have said multiple times, and did sign again, that I do not believe driverless vehicles will automatically lead mass adoption of fleet/on-demand vehicles. I don't think they will be as much of a savings over human-piloted vehicles as the optimists think.
- icedchai 9y ago
  What choice do we have? Keep your money in cash? Invest in bonds for 4% return? No thanks, I'll take my chances, especially with true inflation being higher than people think... Right now I'm gradually liquidating my crypto stash and buying stocks instead.
  - rubidium 9y ago
    Please guide me to the 4% bonds.
    - icedchai 9y ago
      You can find several high yield bond funds in that range. Here's a 5% bond fund: FIHBX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FIHBX/performance?p=FIHBX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FIHBX/performance?p=FIHBX Here's another at 6% : PHYSX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PHYSX?p=PHYSX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PHYSX?p=PHYSX Less risky (municipal) at 4%: MMHYX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMHYX/profile?p=MMHYX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMHYX/profile?p=MMHYX
    - aphextron 9y ago
      T-bills are headed that way...
- KaoruAoiShiho 9y ago
  > Again, how is this growth? People will simply replace their existing cars at a known rate with electric cars as they become available/affordable From investor pov you can short dinos and ride disruptors. ez $$. Not saying tsla isn't overvalued though.
  - aphextron 9y ago
    >From investor pov you can short dinos and ride disruptors. ez $$. Not saying tsla isn't overvalued though. Except the "dinos" of GM, Nissan, BMW, Ford, and Hyundai are outproducing Tesla in the EV market, with a clear lead in affordability. Nissan Leaf is far and away the most popular EV ever built, having sold thousands more than all Tesla models combined (discounting unfulfilled preorders).
- niyazpk 9y ago
  >> Real inflation is 10 times the official rate. ELI5 please?
  - aphextron 9y ago
    http://www.businessinsider.com/if-people-knew-the-actual-inflation-rate-it-would-crash-the-economy-2016-8 http://www.businessinsider.com/if-people-knew-the-actual-inf... Perhaps it's more like 5x, but the point stands
  - Jach 9y ago
    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts and links from that page explain further. (The difference has been ~5% understated inflation rather than 10 or 5 times as much, but whatever.)
  - jblow 9y ago
    Baumol predicted this 50 years ago; it's called the "cost disease". The inflation rate for a computer with a fixed set of specs is massively negative -- it gets cheaper every year. So it is for many technological devices. But our whole economy is a mixture of technological stuff (that drops in cost over time, i.e. negative inflation) and non-technological stuff (burritos and health care). The overall inflation rate is an average across the entire economy. Even if you believe the reporting is not distorted (which is dubious), then the fact that there are so many goods whose prices drop quickly over time, implies that there have to be many goods and services whose prices go up much faster than "inflation" would predict. Because something has to balance that average! Baumol calls the technological stuff the "progressive sector" and the non-technological stuff the "stagnant sector". As time goes on, prices in the stagnant sector continue to rise until they consume almost all spending. Baumol made specific predictions based on this model in 1960 that have turned out to be consistently true for 50 years ("the cost of healthcare will continue to rise to degrees that will seem scary" and so forth). Furthermore, it's not like it is some weird complicated or hard-to-substantiate theory. It is just math, not much more complicated than the definition of the average. Given how big the consequences are, and how hard to argue with, it surprises me that this idea occupies so little of the public conversation.
- colordrops 9y ago
  You're kidding on the "Applied neural networks" bit right? A good subset of the features you see on Facebook and Google have neural networks contributing to their functionality.
  - rubidium 9y ago
    Adding value to our society may be the part the parent comment questions.
    - colordrops 9y ago
      Translation? Image search?
- kevin_thibedeau 9y ago
  > What value is being created here, exactly? It's the greatest advance in money laundering ever invented. For that to work the proles need to be conned into participating so there is plenty of transaction volume to hide in.
  - jjeaff 9y ago
    It's really not a great way to launder money. To keep it off the books, you will need armies of individuals going out and buying it with cash through forums or whatever. Same to convert it back to cash. Otherwise, you are just buying and selling it through exchanged who, in the US, are going to report it on your 1099k. Otherwise, you have to have a seemingly legitimate Enterprise that is accepting Bitcoin on a large scale. Which would cause you to stand out like a sore thumb to the authorities because no one in their right mind is using Bitcoin with $40 transaction fees.
    - vlovich123 9y ago
      I started a X business that only sells widget Y for bitcoins. You shuffle all the coins through intermediary wallets that use small payments. The current transaction fee is $20 but regardless of what it is you just scale how much you transfer based on that. Also, if you set up many dummy coinbase accounts, you can use GDAX to exchange it for fiat without fees so you really just need to funnel it into a lot of coinbase accounts that then progressively funnel it to you over time. You can set up a lot of coinbase accounts in a week if you task 50 employees for a week. The rest can probably be automated if you cared enough.
      - jjeaff 9y ago
        Might as well turn yourself in to the FBI. Creating tons of coinbase accounts is no easy task. You have to validate the accounts with multiple forms of ID and this pattern would eventually be found out and get flagged big time. Then, you need different bank accounts for every single coinbase account you create and those require multiple forms of ID as well as valid SSN numbers which will be checked. If you are referring to GDAX allowing you to transfer to USD, looks like it is FDIC insured, which means it is a US bank account, which means it is subject to KYC patriot act stuff and will be the same as opening any other us bank account.
- nimchimpsky 9y ago
  > single, real, useful product or service materialize The ASX is implementing blockchain for its ledger, via the digitalassets company. Right now. HST voting dapp is being used at the world economic forum, this week. Thats two I know of, off the top of my head. As well as the obvious btc and eth being used to purchase stuff everyday, all over the world. Its actually happening if you bother to look.
eldavido 9y ago
So this actually points to a big problem with how we measure growth. If you start from the assumption that well-being or some other desirable policy goal can be measured by income (profits, wages, etc), I'd argue most of the things in this list aren't likely to increase either wages or profits of companies. But they are likely to create economic surplus - that thing that makes us want to trade/transact in the first place. Economic surplus is why you'd rather buy a Netflix package for $10 than rent a $3 video from the video store. You're massively better off with Netflix even though Netflix's profits and your wages haven't moved. The problem is, we don't have a good way to measure this. Economists are aware of the problem, and it's something that makes comparison of GDP across decades difficult. There are many things that are better or flat-out new compared to what existed 50 years ago. How do you compare the experience of driving a modern, safe, smooth-driving car to an older one? Or the experience of talking cross-continent for practically nothing on Skype? I agree that these technologies are going to reshape our world, I just don't think those gains are necessarily going to show up in GDP, at least not how we measure it today. And I also think this whole "real wages have stagnated" argument is a bit of a red herring. Maybe they have...so what. People are much, much better off today than they were even 20 years ago. We have more things, they're better in almost every way, less disease, the world is just 100% a better place, and anyone who says otherwise is just trying to push some redistributionist political agenda. I'm not saying inequality isn't a problem, but it's borderline lying to suggest our lives haven't gotten any better over the last 30 years because "real wages have stagnated".
Robotbeat 9y ago
Don't know why this is down voted so much. I agree cryptocurrencies are mostly a fad, but AI, automation, electric (self-driving) cars, and good cheap batteries are definitely capable of driving productivity & growth. Lithium batteries are the IC of the 21st century. They've driven a lot of innovation already (smartphones, better laptops, tablets, smartwatches, EVs, consumer drones, etc), but there's a lot more to come in terms of mass market self-driving EVs, mass grid storage, electric aircraft (both robotic and not), etc.
Johnny555 9y ago
> Automation It seems like this is the opposite of growth - as more jobs are automated, fewer people will be able to buy the products that are created by the automation.
- vitorgrs 9y ago
  But these products will be way cheaper :)
- imtringued 9y ago
  Instead of thinking in money you should think in widgets. Do you want more money but the same amount of widgets or do you want the same money but more widgets?
  - Johnny555 9y ago
    I want more money and the same amount of widgets, because then after I buy my widget, I have more money leftover to buy thingamabobs. But if I earn less money, even if widgets drop in price, I don't have enough money to buy a thingamabob. And really, how many widgets do I need? My garage is already stacked full of them and I can't even fit my car inside.

aphextron 9y ago

>Cryptocurrencies and ICOs. What value is being created here, exactly? There's plenty of idealistic notions being thrown around, but I've yet to see a single, real, useful product or service materialize >Applied neural networks. Same. >Automation. This is way too broad to be invested in. Of course the world is automating at a greater rate, but is this a cause for growth? Will automated factories produce more goods for the same consumers? >Good electric cars. To the point where people are prepaying for something that might be built in a few years. Again, how is this growth? People will simply replace their existing cars at a known rate with electric cars as they become available/affordable >Good cheap batteries. Granted this one would be a technological revolution greater than the internet, but it's just a fantasy for now. I think the grandparent is dead on here. Real inflation is 10 times the official rate since the mid 2000s. We are all playing with funny money these days, and this won't end well.

adamclayman 9y ago
> Again, how is this growth? People will simply replace their existing cars at a known rate with electric cars as they become available/affordable Since driverless vehicles and fleets are arriving roughly concurrent to electric vehicles, they're actually more likely to _reduce_ the volume of cars produced, after accounting for any increased, accelerated "fleet churn" buyers exert via aggregate demand to reach a faster critical mass on increasingly or perfectly safe cars.
- inventtheday 9y ago
  Disagree. This is hotly debated, but, i think that the growth in demand for transportation will be so staggering (when AV's are introduced) it will more than offset efficiency for a long while.
- vonmoltke 9y ago
  > Since driverless vehicles and fleets are arriving roughly concurrent I have said multiple times, and did sign again, that I do not believe driverless vehicles will automatically lead mass adoption of fleet/on-demand vehicles. I don't think they will be as much of a savings over human-piloted vehicles as the optimists think.
icedchai 9y ago
What choice do we have? Keep your money in cash? Invest in bonds for 4% return? No thanks, I'll take my chances, especially with true inflation being higher than people think... Right now I'm gradually liquidating my crypto stash and buying stocks instead.
- rubidium 9y ago
  Please guide me to the 4% bonds.
  - icedchai 9y ago
    You can find several high yield bond funds in that range. Here's a 5% bond fund: FIHBX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FIHBX/performance?p=FIHBX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FIHBX/performance?p=FIHBX Here's another at 6% : PHYSX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PHYSX?p=PHYSX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PHYSX?p=PHYSX Less risky (municipal) at 4%: MMHYX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMHYX/profile?p=MMHYX https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMHYX/profile?p=MMHYX
  - aphextron 9y ago
    T-bills are headed that way...
KaoruAoiShiho 9y ago
> Again, how is this growth? People will simply replace their existing cars at a known rate with electric cars as they become available/affordable From investor pov you can short dinos and ride disruptors. ez $$. Not saying tsla isn't overvalued though.
- aphextron 9y ago
  >From investor pov you can short dinos and ride disruptors. ez $$. Not saying tsla isn't overvalued though. Except the "dinos" of GM, Nissan, BMW, Ford, and Hyundai are outproducing Tesla in the EV market, with a clear lead in affordability. Nissan Leaf is far and away the most popular EV ever built, having sold thousands more than all Tesla models combined (discounting unfulfilled preorders).
niyazpk 9y ago
>> Real inflation is 10 times the official rate. ELI5 please?
- aphextron 9y ago
  http://www.businessinsider.com/if-people-knew-the-actual-inflation-rate-it-would-crash-the-economy-2016-8 http://www.businessinsider.com/if-people-knew-the-actual-inf... Perhaps it's more like 5x, but the point stands
- Jach 9y ago
  http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts and links from that page explain further. (The difference has been ~5% understated inflation rather than 10 or 5 times as much, but whatever.)
- jblow 9y ago
  Baumol predicted this 50 years ago; it's called the "cost disease". The inflation rate for a computer with a fixed set of specs is massively negative -- it gets cheaper every year. So it is for many technological devices. But our whole economy is a mixture of technological stuff (that drops in cost over time, i.e. negative inflation) and non-technological stuff (burritos and health care). The overall inflation rate is an average across the entire economy. Even if you believe the reporting is not distorted (which is dubious), then the fact that there are so many goods whose prices drop quickly over time, implies that there have to be many goods and services whose prices go up much faster than "inflation" would predict. Because something has to balance that average! Baumol calls the technological stuff the "progressive sector" and the non-technological stuff the "stagnant sector". As time goes on, prices in the stagnant sector continue to rise until they consume almost all spending. Baumol made specific predictions based on this model in 1960 that have turned out to be consistently true for 50 years ("the cost of healthcare will continue to rise to degrees that will seem scary" and so forth). Furthermore, it's not like it is some weird complicated or hard-to-substantiate theory. It is just math, not much more complicated than the definition of the average. Given how big the consequences are, and how hard to argue with, it surprises me that this idea occupies so little of the public conversation.
colordrops 9y ago
You're kidding on the "Applied neural networks" bit right? A good subset of the features you see on Facebook and Google have neural networks contributing to their functionality.
- rubidium 9y ago
  Adding value to our society may be the part the parent comment questions.
  - colordrops 9y ago
    Translation? Image search?
kevin_thibedeau 9y ago
> What value is being created here, exactly? It's the greatest advance in money laundering ever invented. For that to work the proles need to be conned into participating so there is plenty of transaction volume to hide in.
- jjeaff 9y ago
  It's really not a great way to launder money. To keep it off the books, you will need armies of individuals going out and buying it with cash through forums or whatever. Same to convert it back to cash. Otherwise, you are just buying and selling it through exchanged who, in the US, are going to report it on your 1099k. Otherwise, you have to have a seemingly legitimate Enterprise that is accepting Bitcoin on a large scale. Which would cause you to stand out like a sore thumb to the authorities because no one in their right mind is using Bitcoin with $40 transaction fees.
  - vlovich123 9y ago
    I started a X business that only sells widget Y for bitcoins. You shuffle all the coins through intermediary wallets that use small payments. The current transaction fee is $20 but regardless of what it is you just scale how much you transfer based on that. Also, if you set up many dummy coinbase accounts, you can use GDAX to exchange it for fiat without fees so you really just need to funnel it into a lot of coinbase accounts that then progressively funnel it to you over time. You can set up a lot of coinbase accounts in a week if you task 50 employees for a week. The rest can probably be automated if you cared enough.
    - jjeaff 9y ago
      Might as well turn yourself in to the FBI. Creating tons of coinbase accounts is no easy task. You have to validate the accounts with multiple forms of ID and this pattern would eventually be found out and get flagged big time. Then, you need different bank accounts for every single coinbase account you create and those require multiple forms of ID as well as valid SSN numbers which will be checked. If you are referring to GDAX allowing you to transfer to USD, looks like it is FDIC insured, which means it is a US bank account, which means it is subject to KYC patriot act stuff and will be the same as opening any other us bank account.
nimchimpsky 9y ago
> single, real, useful product or service materialize The ASX is implementing blockchain for its ledger, via the digitalassets company. Right now. HST voting dapp is being used at the world economic forum, this week. Thats two I know of, off the top of my head. As well as the obvious btc and eth being used to purchase stuff everyday, all over the world. Its actually happening if you bother to look.

eldavido 9y ago

So this actually points to a big problem with how we measure growth. If you start from the assumption that well-being or some other desirable policy goal can be measured by income (profits, wages, etc), I'd argue most of the things in this list aren't likely to increase either wages or profits of companies. But they are likely to create economic surplus - that thing that makes us want to trade/transact in the first place. Economic surplus is why you'd rather buy a Netflix package for $10 than rent a $3 video from the video store. You're massively better off with Netflix even though Netflix's profits and your wages haven't moved. The problem is, we don't have a good way to measure this. Economists are aware of the problem, and it's something that makes comparison of GDP across decades difficult. There are many things that are better or flat-out new compared to what existed 50 years ago. How do you compare the experience of driving a modern, safe, smooth-driving car to an older one? Or the experience of talking cross-continent for practically nothing on Skype? I agree that these technologies are going to reshape our world, I just don't think those gains are necessarily going to show up in GDP, at least not how we measure it today. And I also think this whole "real wages have stagnated" argument is a bit of a red herring. Maybe they have...so what. People are much, much better off today than they were even 20 years ago. We have more things, they're better in almost every way, less disease, the world is just 100% a better place, and anyone who says otherwise is just trying to push some redistributionist political agenda. I'm not saying inequality isn't a problem, but it's borderline lying to suggest our lives haven't gotten any better over the last 30 years because "real wages have stagnated".

Robotbeat 9y ago

Don't know why this is down voted so much. I agree cryptocurrencies are mostly a fad, but AI, automation, electric (self-driving) cars, and good cheap batteries are definitely capable of driving productivity & growth. Lithium batteries are the IC of the 21st century. They've driven a lot of innovation already (smartphones, better laptops, tablets, smartwatches, EVs, consumer drones, etc), but there's a lot more to come in terms of mass market self-driving EVs, mass grid storage, electric aircraft (both robotic and not), etc.

Johnny555 9y ago

> Automation It seems like this is the opposite of growth - as more jobs are automated, fewer people will be able to buy the products that are created by the automation.

vitorgrs 9y ago
But these products will be way cheaper :)
imtringued 9y ago
Instead of thinking in money you should think in widgets. Do you want more money but the same amount of widgets or do you want the same money but more widgets?
- Johnny555 9y ago
  I want more money and the same amount of widgets, because then after I buy my widget, I have more money leftover to buy thingamabobs. But if I earn less money, even if widgets drop in price, I don't have enough money to buy a thingamabob. And really, how many widgets do I need? My garage is already stacked full of them and I can't even fit my car inside.