6 ms·

For comparison, overall and by-race data for the US: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/wr/mm6631a9.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/wr/mm6631a9.htm

adventured 9y ago
The difference between states is also fascinating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_in_the_United_States_by_state https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_in_the_United_States_by... From New Hampshire at 1.1, Hawaii at 1.3, and Vermont at 1.6 to Mississippi at 8.7 and Louisiana at 10.
- _delirium 9y ago
  Some of that list is ordered how I'd expect, but I wouldn't have guessed that NY has significantly lower than US-average murder rates, and Alaska significantly higher. Interestingly both CA and TX are pretty much exactly at the US average, despite fairly different politics/policies.
  - almost_usual 9y ago
    NYC had one of the lowest murdered rates in 2017, St Louis city nearly had as many homicides as NYC. http://amp.kansascity.com/news/local/crime/article191211704.html http://amp.kansascity.com/news/local/crime/article191211704.... Population of NYC: 8,537,673 Population of St Louis: 312,000
  - IkmoIkmo 9y ago
    NY has restrictive gun-controls, is quite urban/dense and has the 2nd highest gdp/capita by state. They're all correlated with lower murder rates, that helps explain things a bit on NY. The one thing NY does have is high inequality measured in gini, the highest of all states. That usually drives crime/murder rates. But it's probably because of rich outliers (extreme upper capital class), rather than a big gap between lower-uppermiddle.
    - rdtsc 9y ago
      Doesn't Venezuela have strict gun laws as well. I don't think private gun ownership is even allowed. So how effective is that alone? It seems per capita income would be the prevalent factor.
      - adventured 9y ago
        About 95% of the world (not counting the US) has a lower per capita income than the poorest US cities. Arguably the poorest US state, West Virginia, has a typical murder rate of around 3 to 4 per year per 100k. Vietnam has been extraordinarily poor for the last half century, only recently beginning to climb economically. Its murder rate is typically 1 to 1.5 or so. Per capita income probably only has a correlation in regards to the resources you have available to deal with crime problems if such presently exist, rather than being the defining characteristic of whether eg murder will be prevalent in a nation.
        rdtsc 9y ago
        > About 95% of the world (not counting the US) has a lower per capita income than the poorest US cities. Sure if the average salary in Vietnam is $150/month then yes per capita income is going to to be lower than the poorest cities in US. $150/month is a different story in NYC or SF. It would have to be adjusted for purchasing power or maybe just looking at poverty rates.
      - IkmoIkmo 9y ago
        > So how effective is that alone? It seems per capita income would be the prevalent factor. It isn't, alone, in a cherry-picked example. But ceteris paribus it's a explanatory factor. I mean, one could also use your argument the other way around and question whether income is effective as a factor by itself. Cherry pick some country with similar levels of median wealth and a wildly different murder rate and gun laws. Like say the Netherlands and the US. Doesn't really prove a point, it'd be silly to now claim income isn't an important factor.
    - hackermailman 9y ago
  - uzzgae 9y ago
    Interesting that Ca and Tx data nearly mirrors this simple analysis of racial makeup vs racial statistics on homocide. per_capita_data = {'white': 3, 'asian': 1, 'black': 21, 'hispanic': 6} cali_cencus = {'white': 37.7, 'asian': 14.8, 'black': 6.5, 'hispanic': 37.7} texas_cencus = {'white': 42.4, 'asian': 4.8, 'black': 12.6, 'hispanic': 39.1} def calculate(per_capita, state_stats): rate = 0 for race in per_capita: rate += per_capita[race] * (state_stats[race] / 100) return rate print calculate(per_capita_data, texas_cencus) print calculate(per_capita_data, cali_percentages)
- afpx 9y ago
  There’s a strong negative correlation between latitude and crime. One hypothesis is that people further away from the equator spend more time inside annually, and thus have less opportunity for crime.
  - 0xfeba 9y ago
    Also, southern states are way more likely to be poorer and have poorer populations.
  - CthulhuCoin 9y ago
    VT and NH are on the same latitude and the delta is pretty significant at .5
  - sulam 9y ago
    Alaska is next to South Carolina. DC tops the list. Both of these are relatively small populations, but then you have Michigan and Indiana above New Mexico. If there's a correlation there, it doesn't seem obviously strong.
    - afpx 9y ago
      Sorry, I wasn’t clear - the correlation is from calculations at the census tract level, not the data linked. I did the analysis years ago.
  - bluedino 9y ago
    Chicago? Flint? Detroit?
  - lostlogin 9y ago
    You get a good idea of this by comparing winter and summer stats for the same location. Hot, humid weather causes more crime. This linked adds a new dimension - climate change with warmer temperatures would appear to come with an increased death toll due to crime. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069613001289 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009506961...
grecy 9y ago
The USA falls right between Ecuador and Chile. Among OECD countries, only 3 countries are worse than the USA [1] The USA really does rank among developing countries in a lot of different measures. [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/oecd-homicide-rates-chart-2015-6 http://www.businessinsider.com/oecd-homicide-rates-chart-201...
- toomuchtodo 9y ago
  Some cities in the US rate just as high as the deadlier Latin America countries (Chicago, South Bend, IN, Indianapolis, Philadelphia) http://bismarcktribune.com/news/national/the-cities-with-the-highest-murder-rates-in-the-us/collection_5a789407-4d43-5403-ad56-7c47880bda8e.html http://bismarcktribune.com/news/national/the-cities-with-the...
  - uzzgae 9y ago
    I wonder if some cities in the deadlier Latin America countries rate higher than the deadlier Latin American average.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
    - Retric 9y ago
      #1 Caracas, Venezuela, had 130.35 homicides per 100,000 residents. That's significantly higher than average, but not 'crazy' relative to Venezuela's murder rate of 90 per 100,000. On the other hand Washington DC was ~70-80 from 1988 to 1998, which would have put it on the current list of top 10 deadliest city's worldwide. DC: (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/data/ct-homicide-spikes-comparison-htmlstory.html http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/data/ct-homicide-spikes-c...) Current top 50: http://www.businessinsider.com/most-violent-cities-in-the-world-2017-4/#50-durban-south-africa-had-3443-homicides-per-100000-residents-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/most-violent-cities-in-the-wo... PS: Homicide rates are not necessarily accurate, but tend to be closer to reality than say rape statistics.
  - 9y ago
uzzgae 9y ago
I wonder what the homicide rates would look like if you removed/ignored the statistics from african americans.
Red_Tarsius 9y ago
That chart is far from surprising. I was shocked to find out that 52% of US homicides recorded between 1980 and 2008 were committed by black offenders, but only around 13% of Americans are black! Pointing to poverty rates is not a satisfactory answer. Whatever the reason, people should be able to acknowledge hard truths and still uphold equal rights.
- superioritycplx 9y ago
  It's even more shocking when you realize that most homicides are done by men, so 6.5% of Americans account for 52% of the homicides.
- thelock85 9y ago
  Citations?
  - Red_Tarsius 9y ago
    Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008 by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Page 3, Table 1: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf
- gsteinb88 9y ago
  How about pointing to several hundred years of systemic slavery and oppression without any meaningful reparation efforts?
  - adventured 9y ago
    Try having a conversation with Europeans about how many trillions of dollars in reparations they owe black Americans and black Latin Americans (those that are descendants of slaves), for the millions of slaves their various nations/empires transported from Africa to North and South America over centuries.
    - lostlogin 9y ago

adventured 9y ago

The difference between states is also fascinating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_in_the_United_States_by_state https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_in_the_United_States_by... From New Hampshire at 1.1, Hawaii at 1.3, and Vermont at 1.6 to Mississippi at 8.7 and Louisiana at 10.

_delirium 9y ago
Some of that list is ordered how I'd expect, but I wouldn't have guessed that NY has significantly lower than US-average murder rates, and Alaska significantly higher. Interestingly both CA and TX are pretty much exactly at the US average, despite fairly different politics/policies.
- almost_usual 9y ago
  NYC had one of the lowest murdered rates in 2017, St Louis city nearly had as many homicides as NYC. http://amp.kansascity.com/news/local/crime/article191211704.html http://amp.kansascity.com/news/local/crime/article191211704.... Population of NYC: 8,537,673 Population of St Louis: 312,000
- IkmoIkmo 9y ago
  NY has restrictive gun-controls, is quite urban/dense and has the 2nd highest gdp/capita by state. They're all correlated with lower murder rates, that helps explain things a bit on NY. The one thing NY does have is high inequality measured in gini, the highest of all states. That usually drives crime/murder rates. But it's probably because of rich outliers (extreme upper capital class), rather than a big gap between lower-uppermiddle.
  - rdtsc 9y ago
    Doesn't Venezuela have strict gun laws as well. I don't think private gun ownership is even allowed. So how effective is that alone? It seems per capita income would be the prevalent factor.
    - adventured 9y ago
      About 95% of the world (not counting the US) has a lower per capita income than the poorest US cities. Arguably the poorest US state, West Virginia, has a typical murder rate of around 3 to 4 per year per 100k. Vietnam has been extraordinarily poor for the last half century, only recently beginning to climb economically. Its murder rate is typically 1 to 1.5 or so. Per capita income probably only has a correlation in regards to the resources you have available to deal with crime problems if such presently exist, rather than being the defining characteristic of whether eg murder will be prevalent in a nation.
      - rdtsc 9y ago
        > About 95% of the world (not counting the US) has a lower per capita income than the poorest US cities. Sure if the average salary in Vietnam is $150/month then yes per capita income is going to to be lower than the poorest cities in US. $150/month is a different story in NYC or SF. It would have to be adjusted for purchasing power or maybe just looking at poverty rates.
    - IkmoIkmo 9y ago
      > So how effective is that alone? It seems per capita income would be the prevalent factor. It isn't, alone, in a cherry-picked example. But ceteris paribus it's a explanatory factor. I mean, one could also use your argument the other way around and question whether income is effective as a factor by itself. Cherry pick some country with similar levels of median wealth and a wildly different murder rate and gun laws. Like say the Netherlands and the US. Doesn't really prove a point, it'd be silly to now claim income isn't an important factor.
  - hackermailman 9y ago
- uzzgae 9y ago
  Interesting that Ca and Tx data nearly mirrors this simple analysis of racial makeup vs racial statistics on homocide. per_capita_data = {'white': 3, 'asian': 1, 'black': 21, 'hispanic': 6} cali_cencus = {'white': 37.7, 'asian': 14.8, 'black': 6.5, 'hispanic': 37.7} texas_cencus = {'white': 42.4, 'asian': 4.8, 'black': 12.6, 'hispanic': 39.1} def calculate(per_capita, state_stats): rate = 0 for race in per_capita: rate += per_capita[race] * (state_stats[race] / 100) return rate print calculate(per_capita_data, texas_cencus) print calculate(per_capita_data, cali_percentages)
afpx 9y ago
There’s a strong negative correlation between latitude and crime. One hypothesis is that people further away from the equator spend more time inside annually, and thus have less opportunity for crime.
- 0xfeba 9y ago
  Also, southern states are way more likely to be poorer and have poorer populations.
- CthulhuCoin 9y ago
  VT and NH are on the same latitude and the delta is pretty significant at .5
- sulam 9y ago
  Alaska is next to South Carolina. DC tops the list. Both of these are relatively small populations, but then you have Michigan and Indiana above New Mexico. If there's a correlation there, it doesn't seem obviously strong.
  - afpx 9y ago
    Sorry, I wasn’t clear - the correlation is from calculations at the census tract level, not the data linked. I did the analysis years ago.
- bluedino 9y ago
  Chicago? Flint? Detroit?
- lostlogin 9y ago
  You get a good idea of this by comparing winter and summer stats for the same location. Hot, humid weather causes more crime. This linked adds a new dimension - climate change with warmer temperatures would appear to come with an increased death toll due to crime. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069613001289 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009506961...

grecy 9y ago

The USA falls right between Ecuador and Chile. Among OECD countries, only 3 countries are worse than the USA [1] The USA really does rank among developing countries in a lot of different measures. [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/oecd-homicide-rates-chart-2015-6 http://www.businessinsider.com/oecd-homicide-rates-chart-201...

toomuchtodo 9y ago
Some cities in the US rate just as high as the deadlier Latin America countries (Chicago, South Bend, IN, Indianapolis, Philadelphia) http://bismarcktribune.com/news/national/the-cities-with-the-highest-murder-rates-in-the-us/collection_5a789407-4d43-5403-ad56-7c47880bda8e.html http://bismarcktribune.com/news/national/the-cities-with-the...
- uzzgae 9y ago
  I wonder if some cities in the deadlier Latin America countries rate higher than the deadlier Latin American average.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - Retric 9y ago
    #1 Caracas, Venezuela, had 130.35 homicides per 100,000 residents. That's significantly higher than average, but not 'crazy' relative to Venezuela's murder rate of 90 per 100,000. On the other hand Washington DC was ~70-80 from 1988 to 1998, which would have put it on the current list of top 10 deadliest city's worldwide. DC: (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/data/ct-homicide-spikes-comparison-htmlstory.html http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/data/ct-homicide-spikes-c...) Current top 50: http://www.businessinsider.com/most-violent-cities-in-the-world-2017-4/#50-durban-south-africa-had-3443-homicides-per-100000-residents-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/most-violent-cities-in-the-wo... PS: Homicide rates are not necessarily accurate, but tend to be closer to reality than say rape statistics.
- 9y ago

uzzgae 9y ago

I wonder what the homicide rates would look like if you removed/ignored the statistics from african americans.

Red_Tarsius 9y ago

That chart is far from surprising. I was shocked to find out that 52% of US homicides recorded between 1980 and 2008 were committed by black offenders, but only around 13% of Americans are black! Pointing to poverty rates is not a satisfactory answer. Whatever the reason, people should be able to acknowledge hard truths and still uphold equal rights.

superioritycplx 9y ago
It's even more shocking when you realize that most homicides are done by men, so 6.5% of Americans account for 52% of the homicides.
thelock85 9y ago
Citations?
- Red_Tarsius 9y ago
  Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008 by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Page 3, Table 1: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf
gsteinb88 9y ago
How about pointing to several hundred years of systemic slavery and oppression without any meaningful reparation efforts?
- adventured 9y ago
  Try having a conversation with Europeans about how many trillions of dollars in reparations they owe black Americans and black Latin Americans (those that are descendants of slaves), for the millions of slaves their various nations/empires transported from Africa to North and South America over centuries.
  - lostlogin 9y ago