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China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Ch

China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1F60I1 https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id... http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-falsified-economic-data/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-... In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in China, she said the real gdp growth is only 1-2%

deleted 9y ago
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jbrun 9y ago
For example, we pay out team in Shanghai between 3000 USD and 1000 USD per month. They represent the middle class. Yes, it is less than many in the US, but it is still high enough to enjoy consumer products, travel, and invest in their future and their children's. Plus salaries are increasing 2-3% a year. Government spending on infrastructure is a huge part of GDP, but if you take the high speed trains in China you will see that every seat is sold out and they are not that cheap and if you go to a Chinese tourist location, it is packed, and tickets to enter can easily be 30-40$. This is anecdotal evidence of course, but I would recommend a trip to China - both coastal and interior - if you are so skeptical. Flights are cheap!
- anthonyleecook 9y ago
  Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.
  - pwaai 9y ago
    China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when the Chinese political elite send their kids away from China, along with wealth... In my humble opinion, the American empire is probably the most efficient and anti-fragile system set in human history because it feeds off on our weakness for rare material goods. I will have to agree with Warren Buffett that the next 100+ years for America will be very good indeed for business. Majority of the network is on an English speaking framework, it's unlikely to switch to hieroglyphics and archaic Confucian values that oppressed individual freedom. tl;dr: China won't usurp the US hegemony without surpassing its military and its transnational and intranational reach through corporatism. Soft power plays a huge role and its not something communist architectures are known for. Otherwise, American elites would be fighting to send their kids to the dreamy foggy lands of Beijing University. The US model is to provide a platform where American corporations can thrive, with money or bullets. It's a system where the value of every nation's money is backed by it's own fiat currency, guaranteeing the #1 position as long as there isn't a civil war or something like that divides the country. The only people that believe PRC will overtake the US are Chinese folks and through Chinese diaspora that bought the line.
    - jbrun 9y ago
      Japan is a pretty good place to be born. Better than many places. Talking about debt without talking about assets and ownership structure of debt is incomplete.
      - pwaai 9y ago
        I'm sure many Japanese would disagree given the high rate of suicides and low reporting of happiness. Sorry should've been more specific with my terms, debt levels that exceed assets has proven to be toxic in Japan, Korea, Ireland, Greece.
    - vfulco 9y ago
  - taobility 9y ago
    The same opinion repeated by lots of western economists every year, so you are not the first one. China's economy and culture is different, which lots of western couldn't understand, but still try to use western prospect to interpret it. Like asset bubble, the western don't know the mortgage in China is at least 20% for first property, and the second one would be 50% or even higher. And also in Chinese culture, most people would not get finance for the vehicle, and the saving rate is significant higher than US.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  It is nowhere near enough to ever buy a house in shanghai, however. I’ve taken the HSR many times and the car I’ve been in has almost been empty for much of the way between Beijing and Guangzhou.
azurezyq 9y ago
Well, 1-2% gdp growth is not real if you are a Chinese and see through your own eyes. Every year I feel people around me spend way more and buy way more than last year, even in small cities. China is a bit weird that I have to say there are many aspects that you cannot understand from books or "experts". Actually we also don't really care the faked data. If you can feel the growth, it should be fine. US's economy growth rate is 2~3% and I can barely feel it, it's nowhere close to the rapid growth I felt in China. hmm, for middle class numbers and ability to spend, check iphone/galaxy S sale numbers. Edit: I would really recommend you visiting China and I can guarantee you can see something interesting there.
vfulco 9y ago
That's what it has "felt" like in some quarters the last 2 years.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

jbrun 9y ago

For example, we pay out team in Shanghai between 3000 USD and 1000 USD per month. They represent the middle class. Yes, it is less than many in the US, but it is still high enough to enjoy consumer products, travel, and invest in their future and their children's. Plus salaries are increasing 2-3% a year. Government spending on infrastructure is a huge part of GDP, but if you take the high speed trains in China you will see that every seat is sold out and they are not that cheap and if you go to a Chinese tourist location, it is packed, and tickets to enter can easily be 30-40$. This is anecdotal evidence of course, but I would recommend a trip to China - both coastal and interior - if you are so skeptical. Flights are cheap!

anthonyleecook 9y ago
Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.
- pwaai 9y ago
  China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when the Chinese political elite send their kids away from China, along with wealth... In my humble opinion, the American empire is probably the most efficient and anti-fragile system set in human history because it feeds off on our weakness for rare material goods. I will have to agree with Warren Buffett that the next 100+ years for America will be very good indeed for business. Majority of the network is on an English speaking framework, it's unlikely to switch to hieroglyphics and archaic Confucian values that oppressed individual freedom. tl;dr: China won't usurp the US hegemony without surpassing its military and its transnational and intranational reach through corporatism. Soft power plays a huge role and its not something communist architectures are known for. Otherwise, American elites would be fighting to send their kids to the dreamy foggy lands of Beijing University. The US model is to provide a platform where American corporations can thrive, with money or bullets. It's a system where the value of every nation's money is backed by it's own fiat currency, guaranteeing the #1 position as long as there isn't a civil war or something like that divides the country. The only people that believe PRC will overtake the US are Chinese folks and through Chinese diaspora that bought the line.
  - jbrun 9y ago
    Japan is a pretty good place to be born. Better than many places. Talking about debt without talking about assets and ownership structure of debt is incomplete.
    - pwaai 9y ago
      I'm sure many Japanese would disagree given the high rate of suicides and low reporting of happiness. Sorry should've been more specific with my terms, debt levels that exceed assets has proven to be toxic in Japan, Korea, Ireland, Greece.
  - vfulco 9y ago
- taobility 9y ago
  The same opinion repeated by lots of western economists every year, so you are not the first one. China's economy and culture is different, which lots of western couldn't understand, but still try to use western prospect to interpret it. Like asset bubble, the western don't know the mortgage in China is at least 20% for first property, and the second one would be 50% or even higher. And also in Chinese culture, most people would not get finance for the vehicle, and the saving rate is significant higher than US.
seanmcdirmid 9y ago
It is nowhere near enough to ever buy a house in shanghai, however. I’ve taken the HSR many times and the car I’ve been in has almost been empty for much of the way between Beijing and Guangzhou.

azurezyq 9y ago

Well, 1-2% gdp growth is not real if you are a Chinese and see through your own eyes. Every year I feel people around me spend way more and buy way more than last year, even in small cities. China is a bit weird that I have to say there are many aspects that you cannot understand from books or "experts". Actually we also don't really care the faked data. If you can feel the growth, it should be fine. US's economy growth rate is 2~3% and I can barely feel it, it's nowhere close to the rapid growth I felt in China. hmm, for middle class numbers and ability to spend, check iphone/galaxy S sale numbers. Edit: I would really recommend you visiting China and I can guarantee you can see something interesting there.

vfulco 9y ago

That's what it has "felt" like in some quarters the last 2 years.