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People who see and call out bubbles are always wrong N-1 times where N is the number of times a prediction is made. Look at the fundamentals. What we have here
by api 9y ago
People who see and call out bubbles are always wrong N-1 times where N is the number of times a prediction is made.
Look at the fundamentals. What we have here is a bad currency (volatile and deflationary) whose utility is diminishing as its price increases.
There aren't a lot of value investors in cryptocurrency at this point. The vast majority of the people who hold it are holding it on the theory that it will continue to appreciate, but it can only do that if more money comes in. If these "HODL"ers start to believe that no more money will come in they will sell to lock in their gains. Once it starts this will easily become a self-reinforcing panic sell-off a.k.a. a bank run.
Let's say it goes higher. Let's say it goes up another 1000%. That doesn't change these fundamentals. If anything it makes the situation even more volatile. Most people look at price charts in linear not logarithmic mode, making moves look larger at higher prices. This makes panic selling more likely.
- specialist 9y agoIf I'm reading you right... I agree that bitcoin et al are escrows vs currencies. That their current valuation is a combination of money laundering and typical bubble hype (FOMO, castles in the sky, gambling).
- stanleydrew 9y ago> Most people look at price charts in linear not logarithmic mode Do you have any tools you recommend that make it easy to see these logarithmic charts?