13 ms·

Cryptocurrencies are collapsing

103 points by dannylandau 9y ago

eddz 9y ago
I would call it more of a "market correction" than a "collapse."
- viach 9y ago
  Indeed, I wouldn't call a change 15K -> 13K a collapse.
  - mschuster91 9y ago
    There are a bunch of coins that lost over 20% in 24h, and the 7d-situation looks even worse with even huge coins like Ripple taking a 45% drop in value.
    - sidhuko 9y ago
      48 now. Ripple's being hit hard.
      - Cthulhu_ 9y ago
        Ripple was way overvalued, it was intended to be about $1.
        lawlessone 9y ago
        The creators have also pretty much premined or own all the "coin". They even warned people on the Ripple website not to speculate on it.
  - nopriorarrests 9y ago
    according to reuters, "Bitcoin extends slide to trade down 18 percent on day at $11,191 on Bitstamp Exchange, on track for biggest one-day fall in three years" - so, pretty significant move.
    - lawlessone 9y ago
      it was 1K at the start of last year so yeah this years bubble will probably burst.
      - pygy_ 9y ago
        I'm suspicious of growth curves that are still supra-linear when plotted in log scale...
  - mr_toad 9y ago
    Below 11.5k now and picking up speed.
    - tom_mellior 9y ago
      Picking up speed... upwards? At the moment you posted it turned around, and 31 minutes later it's at 11.9k. Trying to read this short-term things is uninformative. Oh, in the time I typed the sentence above it went from 11.94k to 11.99k.
      - mr_toad 9y ago
        Yep, it might have bottomed out. Or maybe it’s a dead cat bounce. It’s amusing either way.
        simik 9y ago
        I've just made a bet it's dead cat bounce. Let's see how it goes.
- BozeWolf 9y ago
  This is crypto logic. In 'real' stocks this will be called a collapse for today or at least an extremely wild ride. I wonder how much technical analysis can be done to predict this. Just HODL!
  - ric2b 9y ago
    > This is crypto logic. In 'real' stocks this will be called a collapse for today or at least an extremely wild ride. It is a wild ride. The reason this is a correction and not a collapse can be easily understood if you zoom out your charts enough so that you can see the ancient times of November 2017.
  - dx034 9y ago
    It's just a matter of volatility. If a stock drops by 15-20% once a month, a correction is not called a collapse. If it never moves more than 2-3% per day, a 15% drop causes panic. BTC is by far the most volatile asset at the moment (excluding other crypto currencies and some exotic real currencies). I think the reason people talk about crashes so quickly is that no one has a clue what's going on. Is it a broad-based move? Is it a few speculators? Is it a conspiracy? For stocks, at least the regulator knows very quickly who sold and if there's something fishy going on. For BTC, no one knows which makes it more confusing.
cupofjoakim 9y ago
It seems impossible to understand the fluctuations of the market as it is now. Finding no specific article that explains what this could be due to. Should probably just stick to regular investments.
- twelve40 9y ago
  this? https://nypost.com/2018/01/16/bitcoin-price-skids-after-south-korea-suggests-crackdown/ https://nypost.com/2018/01/16/bitcoin-price-skids-after-sout...
- robinduckett 9y ago
  It's probably due to a discount on alt coins from one of the markets
- anonytrary 9y ago
  It was impossible to understand motions of celestial objects as well. I think this is typical market correction we see when something is undergoing adoption. Much like turbulence, we will see oscillations of people who want to transition between fiat and cryptocurrency. Human psychology (FOMO/FUD) tends to drive those oscillations as well. This isn't surprising since cryptocurrency is a speculative, unknown and misunderstood area -- people will be driven through emotions and irrational thought rather than sound utility or value based investment. It may not be a single cause (like a single article) but it could be that the overall sentiment of the web is decreasing, which is causing people to get scared and sell their coins. One would have to actually calculate this. But this oscillation is very real. For example, we can see positive sentiment come out, and other humans make it their job to fill the web with counteracting negative sentiment, etc. There are many complex factors that go into the price, and the web is merely a fraction of the input into the algorithm.
- rplnt 9y ago
  The market is so small that one or few bigger holders/investors can move with it significantly.
senatorobama 9y ago
Cheap coinz!
mesozoic 9y ago
What a wild ride
jcrei 9y ago
Kraken came back online, and that made it easier for people to sell their cryptos?
ndury 9y ago
Market is so driven by news which has 0 credible sources it's amazing. I consider this a sales period as it's just shaking out the weak hands, the ones that are here for the quick buck. This was dubbed as "Alt coin season sales" but make no mistake, the tokens which hold no technical value will dissapear.
- singularity2001 9y ago
  >> the tokens which hold no technical value will disappear. You mean ALL of them?
  - henrikschroder 9y ago
    But how else will I buy cryptokitties??!?
  - ndury 9y ago
    What makes you think <ALL> of them have no use case or real life application? It's ignorant to believe "they will all die" if you ask me. But yes, 95% of them will slowly go away
- Twisell 9y ago
  So true. Still can’t believe how high the price was driven by all those news.
singularity2001 9y ago
The December 23 'collapse' so far was bigger, however there is some significant market momentum which I found easier to grasp here: https://cryptowat.ch/ https://cryptowat.ch/
maze-le 9y ago
This site lists 1450 different cryptocurrencies. I wonder how many of them can be used as actual currency. Bitcoin adoption has stalled and at least one big vendor (valve/steam) dropped it because of the price instability.
- anonytrary 9y ago
  Why businesses might not use Bitcoin: 1. Bitcoin remains speculative and volatile. This will cause it to be adopted by smaller businesses that can "do things that don't scale". We won't see big businesses support mainstream crypto payments until the demand is high enough to justify the risk. 2. Bitcoin itself is a clamped network, as such the fees are very high. You can't sell Lemonade at your stand with Bitcoin if the fees are much greater than the cost of a cup of lemonade. Other cryptocurrencies aim to solve these problems.
  - flowctrl 9y ago
    The Lightning Network, coming soon to Bitcoin, will solve the performance & fee problems too. Stability will come with increased liquidity.
    - fgonzag 9y ago
      People keep saying that. I wonder if they have actually read the white paper. The lightning network will only work for exchanges who will keep channels open between them. Getting a graph of every wallet connected to every other wallet is a mathematical impossibility. The lightning network is essentially instituting central banking all over again, this time with bitcoin. "Oh so you want to transfer coins quickly? Better keep them at well connected exchange so it can be instantaneous, and you'll only be transferring between exchanges by the way."
      - ric2b 9y ago
        > The lightning network will only work for exchanges who will keep channels open between them. Getting a graph of every wallet connected to every other wallet is a mathematical impossibility. Transactions can be routed through multiple channels, you don't need to open a channel to every single wallet you want to transact with. That would not be a Lightning network, it would just be payment channels. > The lightning network is essentially instituting central banking all over again, this time with bitcoin. "Oh so you want to transfer coins quickly? Better keep them at well connected exchange so it can be instantaneous, and you'll only be transferring between exchanges by the way." Not even close to central banking, LN transacts real Bitcoins, not IOU's, so they can't print more base money or more debt-based money. There's also no trust needed (no counter-party risk and you can route around censorship attempts)
flowctrl 9y ago
A confluence of factors: 1. China cracking down harder: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/01/16/business/16reuters-china-bitcoin.html?partner=IFTTT https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/01/16/business/16reuter... 2. South Korea cut off access to banks by cryptocurrency exchanges in December, and access to exchanges by foreign traders. As a result the prices in the country spiked, and the largest price aggregator CoinMarketCap removed Korean exchanges from the index because they were skewing the averages. This caused ~$150B to appear to have suddenly vanished, gapping prices down. This is when the sell-off began in earnest. Then recently the South Korean Minister of Justice said he wants to shut down exchanges, but then the PM says that would require a vote in the National Assembly on new legislation. They are consulting with Japan (who are positive on crypto) and China (who are not) to create a new regulatory framework. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180116000817 http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180116000817 3. Indonesia just banned cryptocurrency transactions, stating only their native currency is legal tender. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/01/15/bank-indonesia-police-prevent-bitcoin-transactions-in-bali.html http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/01/15/bank-indonesia... 4. France's central bank has been whining about cryptocurrency for some time and finally convinced the Minister of Finance to make a public statement and authorize a draft of new regulations. https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/905169/bitcoin-France-China-South-Korea-ban-illegal-activities-Bruno-Le-Maire https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/905169/bitcoin-France... 5. A speculative theory: the Bitcoin futures contracts are about to expire, and some investors will have bet on lower BTC prices. There could be large market players deliberately pushing prices down to meet those futures bets. Or just market makers wanting to get in at a lower price point.
- stillbourne 9y ago
  Or it could be, gasp, perhaps bitcoin was overvalued? No, anything but that.
  - HenryBemis 9y ago
    IMO BTC's value could sensibly fluctuate around $10k. The hype/trend and the media frenzy caused the spike of $20k. Let it rest for a while and I believe it will have more races up-and-down the 10k-22k range so people can enjoy their gambling ;)
singularity2001 9y ago
am I in a filter bubble? The OP to me shows bitcoin UP 3% whereas https://cryptowat.ch/ https://cryptowat.ch/ shows it DOWN 15% edit: finally, after 2h delay!
- bhaak 9y ago
  Look at the headers on the OP page. Those are the percentage for 1h, 24h, and 7d changes. cryptowat.ch only shows the 24 hour change and that matches coinmarketcap.com's value.
  - singularity2001 9y ago
    Bitcoin: % 1h % 24h +0.13% +3.21% # Name Symbol Market Cap Price Circulating Supply Volume (24h) % 1h % 24h % 7d 1 Bitcoin BTC $237,388,220,556 $14,126.10 16,804,937 $12,931,700,000 0.13%
    - bhaak 9y ago
      Caching issue? I can view https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ even in elinks and it shows the correct data.
hsxd 9y ago
It’s amazing how many people are against crypto currencies for some odd reason. A correction is being called a collapse, this is just pathetic.
- rplnt 9y ago
  I'm against cryptos in their current form. It was better, and hopefully it will get better, but now it's a mess. Investors, buzzwords, hype, ...
  - hsxd 9y ago
    It will get better, I like to draw parallels to the dotcom bubble–sooner or later we'll see a real collapse and the coins that are actually worth something will rise from the dust. Just like how Amazon and eBay did. This could take a year or three though.
  - xiphias 9y ago
    The only news site I use to evaluate cryptocurrencies is GitHub, and in the Bitcoin repo I see only improvements, no buzzwords/hype
- jacques_chester 9y ago
  Many folks have an allergic reaction to hype.
  - oneeyedpigeon 9y ago
    Isn't that just exactly the same as 'hype', in the opposite direction? Clearly the logical approach is neither to follow the hype, nor shy away from it, but to ignore it altogether.
    - chx 9y ago
      Not quite. We see ordinary people "invest" in what we perceive as gambling at best and a scam at worst and are infuriated by how various people, media etc are egging them on. The Washington Post had it right in 2015 even though they didn't even use the neologism "hodl": > - Hey, do you want to hear about the future? It's a digital currency called Bitcoin that lets you spend or move your money online without paying any fees. - Sounds great. How does it do that? - Well, Bitcoin saves you money by making transactions irreversible. - So ... if I get scammed, I got scammed? There's nothing I can do about it? - Yes. - Okay, but is it at least easy to use? - The thing is, I don't actually use it. I just hoard it. I'm waiting for some greater fools to push up the price by using theirs. - Oh. - Yeah. So you should buy some Bitcoins and use yours. This is nothing but a scam. We don't want people to be scammed.
zerostar07 9y ago
Coinmarketcap shows prices in USD while most cryptos are trading against BTC, so what you’re seeing is mainly the drop of BTC against the dollar. Coins are also dropping against BTC of course, but not all of them, you can see that in an exchange like binance
- tedeh 9y ago
  The "BTC Dominance" chart from Coinmarketcap sheds light to this: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage It actually shows that Bitcoin has lost a lot of value against altcoins since the early December top.
shroom 9y ago
Novice crypto question... I read a comment here about 1 month ago someone predicted a correction of BTC value to mind january because some coins would "expire" then. I'm trying to find the comment now to learn more. Anyone have any insight what I'm talking about?
- panzerboy 9y ago
  Probably those futures somebody was mentioning in another comment.
- HenryBemis 9y ago
  Perhaps it was not BTC or cryptocurrencies expiring but "investors" (gamblers) betting that X or Y commodity's value (gold, oil, USD, EUR, BTC?) will be on $Z, and the closer they places their bet on value Z the more money they make.
- bby 9y ago
  Look at the CME/CBOE open interest. It's not significant. LedgerX and Derivit have shit open interest as well for their futures/options.
- eqmvii 9y ago
  They're talking about futures contracts, which are created with explicit end dates for delivery (or "delivery") of the underlying asset. I believe first officially listed and traded Bitcoin futures contracts were issues in December, and (some?) have expiration dates around now. Prices around expiration dates can get quite volatile, as traders with large positions maneuver to maximize profit or minimize loss.
Theodores 9y ago
They were, but, in the last few minutes the last hour numbers have all gone green. They were definitely all red when I checked this half an hour ago. I think the whole thing is a scam and that it is incredible the willingness of people to be scammed. Yes I see merit in a decent online currency that works like cash but securely, however, these crypto things are speculative tulip stocks in a book-keeper's window and the people that have bought into it are very much in a cult of their own devising. It is comical. When fools rush in.
- matwood 9y ago
  Not that I think it's a scam, but lets ignore that part for a moment. This market is a swing traders dream. 40% swings means there is a ton of money to be gamed off.
  - joaomacp 9y ago
    Sure, but also a lot of money to be lost. And you can only lose so much before you go broke.
dmichulke 9y ago
coinmarketcap doesn't show all the price changes that its API offers. Here is another view on 1h, 24h and 7d price change of the top 10 coins: http://cryptoport.net/sample-portfolio http://cryptoport.net/sample-portfolio
- singularity2001 9y ago
  so much better. to me coinmarketcap is just broken (see below)
thisisit 9y ago
The strange fascination with cryptocurrency price continues. I wonder if there should be a rule against posting every other price count on HN.
- oneeyedpigeon 9y ago
  They get buried pretty quickly, so there's already either an explicit or implicit rule in place.
DennisP 9y ago
I went and looked at the ETH price over the full history in log view. From that perspective today's move is a typical little jiggle. https://imgur.com/13J5kkC https://imgur.com/13J5kkC
- em3rgent0rdr 9y ago
  Same with bitcoin in log view.
kortext 9y ago
Intrinsic value of Cryptocurrency is 0. Period.
- deweller 9y ago
  So is a piece of paper with fancy printing on it that says ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS. Currency is an abstraction. It is a social contract to value something at a certain level. That contract is enforced at the highest levels in our county which is why it works so well. But make no mistake, $100 can buy stuff because only because we all agree to value it at about the same level. If the government collapses, that piece of paper's only worth is how much warmth it will give you when you set it on fire.
  - kortext 9y ago
    Do you really wanna compare private company with legitimate government? Which private company has such a power and credit backed by gigantic land & properties, all the resources from those land, super control from police, military forces? Present value of legitimate tender is printed on it's face and legitimate government CAN force it. Never, ever confront to big brother. Don't be childish. Grow up. If you are not humble, the market will humble you.
NEOCEO 9y ago
Just to clarify the Bloomberg article: OTC/P2P trading is not banned in China, but match-making services are more similar to a private exchanges. It's those match-making services that are now being targetted in China. It's about unlicensed trading, not about blockchain / tokens. NEO = REGULATION
gkya 9y ago
How much are cryptocurrencies are used for actual exchange of goods? I.e. for actual shopping and commerce? Because it seems to me that the most prominent group of users are investors and miners; i.e. those who only buy, stack and sell crypto coins, and those who produce them. And I've read here in some past threads that it's not that easy to liquidify your crypto coins.

103 points by dannylandau 9y ago

eddz 9y ago

I would call it more of a "market correction" than a "collapse."

viach 9y ago
Indeed, I wouldn't call a change 15K -> 13K a collapse.
- mschuster91 9y ago
  There are a bunch of coins that lost over 20% in 24h, and the 7d-situation looks even worse with even huge coins like Ripple taking a 45% drop in value.
  - sidhuko 9y ago
    48 now. Ripple's being hit hard.
    - Cthulhu_ 9y ago
      Ripple was way overvalued, it was intended to be about $1.
      - lawlessone 9y ago
        The creators have also pretty much premined or own all the "coin". They even warned people on the Ripple website not to speculate on it.
- nopriorarrests 9y ago
  according to reuters, "Bitcoin extends slide to trade down 18 percent on day at $11,191 on Bitstamp Exchange, on track for biggest one-day fall in three years" - so, pretty significant move.
  - lawlessone 9y ago
    it was 1K at the start of last year so yeah this years bubble will probably burst.
    - pygy_ 9y ago
      I'm suspicious of growth curves that are still supra-linear when plotted in log scale...
- mr_toad 9y ago
  Below 11.5k now and picking up speed.
  - tom_mellior 9y ago
    Picking up speed... upwards? At the moment you posted it turned around, and 31 minutes later it's at 11.9k. Trying to read this short-term things is uninformative. Oh, in the time I typed the sentence above it went from 11.94k to 11.99k.
    - mr_toad 9y ago
      Yep, it might have bottomed out. Or maybe it’s a dead cat bounce. It’s amusing either way.
      - simik 9y ago
        I've just made a bet it's dead cat bounce. Let's see how it goes.
BozeWolf 9y ago
This is crypto logic. In 'real' stocks this will be called a collapse for today or at least an extremely wild ride. I wonder how much technical analysis can be done to predict this. Just HODL!
- ric2b 9y ago
  > This is crypto logic. In 'real' stocks this will be called a collapse for today or at least an extremely wild ride. It is a wild ride. The reason this is a correction and not a collapse can be easily understood if you zoom out your charts enough so that you can see the ancient times of November 2017.
- dx034 9y ago
  It's just a matter of volatility. If a stock drops by 15-20% once a month, a correction is not called a collapse. If it never moves more than 2-3% per day, a 15% drop causes panic. BTC is by far the most volatile asset at the moment (excluding other crypto currencies and some exotic real currencies). I think the reason people talk about crashes so quickly is that no one has a clue what's going on. Is it a broad-based move? Is it a few speculators? Is it a conspiracy? For stocks, at least the regulator knows very quickly who sold and if there's something fishy going on. For BTC, no one knows which makes it more confusing.

cupofjoakim 9y ago

It seems impossible to understand the fluctuations of the market as it is now. Finding no specific article that explains what this could be due to. Should probably just stick to regular investments.

twelve40 9y ago
this? https://nypost.com/2018/01/16/bitcoin-price-skids-after-south-korea-suggests-crackdown/ https://nypost.com/2018/01/16/bitcoin-price-skids-after-sout...
robinduckett 9y ago
It's probably due to a discount on alt coins from one of the markets
anonytrary 9y ago
It was impossible to understand motions of celestial objects as well. I think this is typical market correction we see when something is undergoing adoption. Much like turbulence, we will see oscillations of people who want to transition between fiat and cryptocurrency. Human psychology (FOMO/FUD) tends to drive those oscillations as well. This isn't surprising since cryptocurrency is a speculative, unknown and misunderstood area -- people will be driven through emotions and irrational thought rather than sound utility or value based investment. It may not be a single cause (like a single article) but it could be that the overall sentiment of the web is decreasing, which is causing people to get scared and sell their coins. One would have to actually calculate this. But this oscillation is very real. For example, we can see positive sentiment come out, and other humans make it their job to fill the web with counteracting negative sentiment, etc. There are many complex factors that go into the price, and the web is merely a fraction of the input into the algorithm.
rplnt 9y ago
The market is so small that one or few bigger holders/investors can move with it significantly.

senatorobama 9y ago

Cheap coinz!

mesozoic 9y ago

What a wild ride

jcrei 9y ago

Kraken came back online, and that made it easier for people to sell their cryptos?

ndury 9y ago

Market is so driven by news which has 0 credible sources it's amazing. I consider this a sales period as it's just shaking out the weak hands, the ones that are here for the quick buck. This was dubbed as "Alt coin season sales" but make no mistake, the tokens which hold no technical value will dissapear.

singularity2001 9y ago
>> the tokens which hold no technical value will disappear. You mean ALL of them?
- henrikschroder 9y ago
  But how else will I buy cryptokitties??!?
- ndury 9y ago
  What makes you think <ALL> of them have no use case or real life application? It's ignorant to believe "they will all die" if you ask me. But yes, 95% of them will slowly go away
Twisell 9y ago
So true. Still can’t believe how high the price was driven by all those news.

singularity2001 9y ago

The December 23 'collapse' so far was bigger, however there is some significant market momentum which I found easier to grasp here: https://cryptowat.ch/ https://cryptowat.ch/

maze-le 9y ago

This site lists 1450 different cryptocurrencies. I wonder how many of them can be used as actual currency. Bitcoin adoption has stalled and at least one big vendor (valve/steam) dropped it because of the price instability.

anonytrary 9y ago
Why businesses might not use Bitcoin: 1. Bitcoin remains speculative and volatile. This will cause it to be adopted by smaller businesses that can "do things that don't scale". We won't see big businesses support mainstream crypto payments until the demand is high enough to justify the risk. 2. Bitcoin itself is a clamped network, as such the fees are very high. You can't sell Lemonade at your stand with Bitcoin if the fees are much greater than the cost of a cup of lemonade. Other cryptocurrencies aim to solve these problems.
- flowctrl 9y ago
  The Lightning Network, coming soon to Bitcoin, will solve the performance & fee problems too. Stability will come with increased liquidity.
  - fgonzag 9y ago
    People keep saying that. I wonder if they have actually read the white paper. The lightning network will only work for exchanges who will keep channels open between them. Getting a graph of every wallet connected to every other wallet is a mathematical impossibility. The lightning network is essentially instituting central banking all over again, this time with bitcoin. "Oh so you want to transfer coins quickly? Better keep them at well connected exchange so it can be instantaneous, and you'll only be transferring between exchanges by the way."
    - ric2b 9y ago
      > The lightning network will only work for exchanges who will keep channels open between them. Getting a graph of every wallet connected to every other wallet is a mathematical impossibility. Transactions can be routed through multiple channels, you don't need to open a channel to every single wallet you want to transact with. That would not be a Lightning network, it would just be payment channels. > The lightning network is essentially instituting central banking all over again, this time with bitcoin. "Oh so you want to transfer coins quickly? Better keep them at well connected exchange so it can be instantaneous, and you'll only be transferring between exchanges by the way." Not even close to central banking, LN transacts real Bitcoins, not IOU's, so they can't print more base money or more debt-based money. There's also no trust needed (no counter-party risk and you can route around censorship attempts)

flowctrl 9y ago

A confluence of factors: 1. China cracking down harder: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/01/16/business/16reuters-china-bitcoin.html?partner=IFTTT https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/01/16/business/16reuter... 2. South Korea cut off access to banks by cryptocurrency exchanges in December, and access to exchanges by foreign traders. As a result the prices in the country spiked, and the largest price aggregator CoinMarketCap removed Korean exchanges from the index because they were skewing the averages. This caused ~$150B to appear to have suddenly vanished, gapping prices down. This is when the sell-off began in earnest. Then recently the South Korean Minister of Justice said he wants to shut down exchanges, but then the PM says that would require a vote in the National Assembly on new legislation. They are consulting with Japan (who are positive on crypto) and China (who are not) to create a new regulatory framework. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180116000817 http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180116000817 3. Indonesia just banned cryptocurrency transactions, stating only their native currency is legal tender. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/01/15/bank-indonesia-police-prevent-bitcoin-transactions-in-bali.html http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/01/15/bank-indonesia... 4. France's central bank has been whining about cryptocurrency for some time and finally convinced the Minister of Finance to make a public statement and authorize a draft of new regulations. https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/905169/bitcoin-France-China-South-Korea-ban-illegal-activities-Bruno-Le-Maire https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/905169/bitcoin-France... 5. A speculative theory: the Bitcoin futures contracts are about to expire, and some investors will have bet on lower BTC prices. There could be large market players deliberately pushing prices down to meet those futures bets. Or just market makers wanting to get in at a lower price point.

stillbourne 9y ago
Or it could be, gasp, perhaps bitcoin was overvalued? No, anything but that.
- HenryBemis 9y ago
  IMO BTC's value could sensibly fluctuate around $10k. The hype/trend and the media frenzy caused the spike of $20k. Let it rest for a while and I believe it will have more races up-and-down the 10k-22k range so people can enjoy their gambling ;)

singularity2001 9y ago

am I in a filter bubble? The OP to me shows bitcoin UP 3% whereas https://cryptowat.ch/ https://cryptowat.ch/ shows it DOWN 15% edit: finally, after 2h delay!

bhaak 9y ago
Look at the headers on the OP page. Those are the percentage for 1h, 24h, and 7d changes. cryptowat.ch only shows the 24 hour change and that matches coinmarketcap.com's value.
- singularity2001 9y ago
  Bitcoin: % 1h % 24h +0.13% +3.21% # Name Symbol Market Cap Price Circulating Supply Volume (24h) % 1h % 24h % 7d 1 Bitcoin BTC $237,388,220,556 $14,126.10 16,804,937 $12,931,700,000 0.13%
  - bhaak 9y ago
    Caching issue? I can view https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ even in elinks and it shows the correct data.

hsxd 9y ago

It’s amazing how many people are against crypto currencies for some odd reason. A correction is being called a collapse, this is just pathetic.

rplnt 9y ago
I'm against cryptos in their current form. It was better, and hopefully it will get better, but now it's a mess. Investors, buzzwords, hype, ...
- hsxd 9y ago
  It will get better, I like to draw parallels to the dotcom bubble–sooner or later we'll see a real collapse and the coins that are actually worth something will rise from the dust. Just like how Amazon and eBay did. This could take a year or three though.
- xiphias 9y ago
  The only news site I use to evaluate cryptocurrencies is GitHub, and in the Bitcoin repo I see only improvements, no buzzwords/hype
jacques_chester 9y ago
Many folks have an allergic reaction to hype.
- oneeyedpigeon 9y ago
  Isn't that just exactly the same as 'hype', in the opposite direction? Clearly the logical approach is neither to follow the hype, nor shy away from it, but to ignore it altogether.
  - chx 9y ago
    Not quite. We see ordinary people "invest" in what we perceive as gambling at best and a scam at worst and are infuriated by how various people, media etc are egging them on. The Washington Post had it right in 2015 even though they didn't even use the neologism "hodl": > - Hey, do you want to hear about the future? It's a digital currency called Bitcoin that lets you spend or move your money online without paying any fees. - Sounds great. How does it do that? - Well, Bitcoin saves you money by making transactions irreversible. - So ... if I get scammed, I got scammed? There's nothing I can do about it? - Yes. - Okay, but is it at least easy to use? - The thing is, I don't actually use it. I just hoard it. I'm waiting for some greater fools to push up the price by using theirs. - Oh. - Yeah. So you should buy some Bitcoins and use yours. This is nothing but a scam. We don't want people to be scammed.

zerostar07 9y ago

Coinmarketcap shows prices in USD while most cryptos are trading against BTC, so what you’re seeing is mainly the drop of BTC against the dollar. Coins are also dropping against BTC of course, but not all of them, you can see that in an exchange like binance

tedeh 9y ago
The "BTC Dominance" chart from Coinmarketcap sheds light to this: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage It actually shows that Bitcoin has lost a lot of value against altcoins since the early December top.

shroom 9y ago

Novice crypto question... I read a comment here about 1 month ago someone predicted a correction of BTC value to mind january because some coins would "expire" then. I'm trying to find the comment now to learn more. Anyone have any insight what I'm talking about?

panzerboy 9y ago
Probably those futures somebody was mentioning in another comment.
HenryBemis 9y ago
Perhaps it was not BTC or cryptocurrencies expiring but "investors" (gamblers) betting that X or Y commodity's value (gold, oil, USD, EUR, BTC?) will be on $Z, and the closer they places their bet on value Z the more money they make.
bby 9y ago
Look at the CME/CBOE open interest. It's not significant. LedgerX and Derivit have shit open interest as well for their futures/options.
eqmvii 9y ago
They're talking about futures contracts, which are created with explicit end dates for delivery (or "delivery") of the underlying asset. I believe first officially listed and traded Bitcoin futures contracts were issues in December, and (some?) have expiration dates around now. Prices around expiration dates can get quite volatile, as traders with large positions maneuver to maximize profit or minimize loss.

Theodores 9y ago

They were, but, in the last few minutes the last hour numbers have all gone green. They were definitely all red when I checked this half an hour ago. I think the whole thing is a scam and that it is incredible the willingness of people to be scammed. Yes I see merit in a decent online currency that works like cash but securely, however, these crypto things are speculative tulip stocks in a book-keeper's window and the people that have bought into it are very much in a cult of their own devising. It is comical. When fools rush in.

matwood 9y ago
Not that I think it's a scam, but lets ignore that part for a moment. This market is a swing traders dream. 40% swings means there is a ton of money to be gamed off.
- joaomacp 9y ago
  Sure, but also a lot of money to be lost. And you can only lose so much before you go broke.

dmichulke 9y ago

coinmarketcap doesn't show all the price changes that its API offers. Here is another view on 1h, 24h and 7d price change of the top 10 coins: http://cryptoport.net/sample-portfolio http://cryptoport.net/sample-portfolio

singularity2001 9y ago
so much better. to me coinmarketcap is just broken (see below)

thisisit 9y ago

The strange fascination with cryptocurrency price continues. I wonder if there should be a rule against posting every other price count on HN.

oneeyedpigeon 9y ago
They get buried pretty quickly, so there's already either an explicit or implicit rule in place.

DennisP 9y ago

I went and looked at the ETH price over the full history in log view. From that perspective today's move is a typical little jiggle. https://imgur.com/13J5kkC https://imgur.com/13J5kkC

em3rgent0rdr 9y ago
Same with bitcoin in log view.

kortext 9y ago

Intrinsic value of Cryptocurrency is 0. Period.

deweller 9y ago
So is a piece of paper with fancy printing on it that says ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS. Currency is an abstraction. It is a social contract to value something at a certain level. That contract is enforced at the highest levels in our county which is why it works so well. But make no mistake, $100 can buy stuff because only because we all agree to value it at about the same level. If the government collapses, that piece of paper's only worth is how much warmth it will give you when you set it on fire.
- kortext 9y ago
  Do you really wanna compare private company with legitimate government? Which private company has such a power and credit backed by gigantic land & properties, all the resources from those land, super control from police, military forces? Present value of legitimate tender is printed on it's face and legitimate government CAN force it. Never, ever confront to big brother. Don't be childish. Grow up. If you are not humble, the market will humble you.

NEOCEO 9y ago

Just to clarify the Bloomberg article: OTC/P2P trading is not banned in China, but match-making services are more similar to a private exchanges. It's those match-making services that are now being targetted in China. It's about unlicensed trading, not about blockchain / tokens. NEO = REGULATION

gkya 9y ago

How much are cryptocurrencies are used for actual exchange of goods? I.e. for actual shopping and commerce? Because it seems to me that the most prominent group of users are investors and miners; i.e. those who only buy, stack and sell crypto coins, and those who produce them. And I've read here in some past threads that it's not that easy to liquidify your crypto coins.