7 ms·

Do we have someone here that could explain how this could affect the world if/when an economic crisis hits China? (only talking about the building construction)

holydude 9y ago
Hard to say. There are entire ghost cities in china because people cannot afford to live there. If an economy crisis hits china it’s possible that the entire world is in trouble (though not all countries). These things are hard to predict but china more or less uses local workers and materials. Only companies and people’s investments tied to those companies would in theory be in trouble.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  The ghost cities are more like ghost outlying districts of existing cities, and they are often heavily sold as speculation plays, so people own the apartments but few live there (Kangbashi in Ordos is a big example, being built up for 2 million, settling for 100k atm). They simply lack the jobs and facilities to attract people. Meanwhile, places where people want to live become increasingly congested. However, you’ll find ghost malls even in Beijing and Shanghai (unneeded retail space).
- igravious 9y ago
  This again. Name even one. Point us to even one "entire" ghost city. Honestly, people will parrot any old thing that sounds dramatic without ever bothering to find out for themselves if it's true.
  - seanmcdirmid 9y ago
    I doubt Kangbashi is ever going to fill up given how unpopular coal is becoming in china. They might be able to move it to a few hundred K by moving a bunch of government jobs there, but even Donald Trump as president couldn’t get to the few million they built for.
seanmcdirmid 9y ago
When I first visited Tianjin in 1999, there were a few partially completed tall concrete husk skyscrapers around town. Basically, they were victims of the Asian financial crisis, which, while it didn’t hit China hard, it hit them hard enough. China has been through boom and bust cycles before, it hasn’t been straight growth since the 80s for sure, even if it looks like it has been on paper. But after the crisis, they either refurbish the buildings into third-tier office space, or tear them down and start again. I don’t think it really affects the rest of world at all. Raw materials will suffer, so the mining sector will take a hit, but that has happened already. A good crisis coupled with some opening up could make China more appealing for international (non-China focused) tech, which is simply difficult ATM with the current property bubble.
crdoconnor 9y ago
Financial crises are unlikely to hit China's economic output while it continues to use counter-cyclical fiscal policy and have access to raw materials.

holydude 9y ago

Hard to say. There are entire ghost cities in china because people cannot afford to live there. If an economy crisis hits china it’s possible that the entire world is in trouble (though not all countries). These things are hard to predict but china more or less uses local workers and materials. Only companies and people’s investments tied to those companies would in theory be in trouble.

seanmcdirmid 9y ago
The ghost cities are more like ghost outlying districts of existing cities, and they are often heavily sold as speculation plays, so people own the apartments but few live there (Kangbashi in Ordos is a big example, being built up for 2 million, settling for 100k atm). They simply lack the jobs and facilities to attract people. Meanwhile, places where people want to live become increasingly congested. However, you’ll find ghost malls even in Beijing and Shanghai (unneeded retail space).
igravious 9y ago
This again. Name even one. Point us to even one "entire" ghost city. Honestly, people will parrot any old thing that sounds dramatic without ever bothering to find out for themselves if it's true.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  I doubt Kangbashi is ever going to fill up given how unpopular coal is becoming in china. They might be able to move it to a few hundred K by moving a bunch of government jobs there, but even Donald Trump as president couldn’t get to the few million they built for.

seanmcdirmid 9y ago

When I first visited Tianjin in 1999, there were a few partially completed tall concrete husk skyscrapers around town. Basically, they were victims of the Asian financial crisis, which, while it didn’t hit China hard, it hit them hard enough. China has been through boom and bust cycles before, it hasn’t been straight growth since the 80s for sure, even if it looks like it has been on paper. But after the crisis, they either refurbish the buildings into third-tier office space, or tear them down and start again. I don’t think it really affects the rest of world at all. Raw materials will suffer, so the mining sector will take a hit, but that has happened already. A good crisis coupled with some opening up could make China more appealing for international (non-China focused) tech, which is simply difficult ATM with the current property bubble.

crdoconnor 9y ago

Financial crises are unlikely to hit China's economic output while it continues to use counter-cyclical fiscal policy and have access to raw materials.