5 ms·

I'm curious: what are the cards UK is holding?

by 627467 9y ago

Nursie 9y ago
Trade with one of the world's larger economies. There is clear mutual interest in continuing trade on an open basis. I'm not saying the EU is not in a stronger position, nor am I trying to make any claims that Brexit is good or bad, nor that it is being pursued competently by the current government (far from it). But the assessment of the process as being entirely one sided seems to me to be simplistic.
- 627467 9y ago
  The EU is more than an economic union. In fact, economic integration was/is only one of the strategies to foster lasting European stability, peace and path towards harmony among warring neighbours. To face these negotiations only on the basis of economic gains/lost is ignoring the political and less tangible goals of the union.
  - pbhjpbhj 9y ago
    But lack of war in Europe is costing us so much in lost revenue for UK arms manufacturers!
    - oblio 9y ago
      Not to rain on your parade, but the last "European" war almost bankrupted the UK. And back then European countries didn't have nukes while the UK still had an empire. I know you're being sarcastic :)
      - pbhjpbhj 9y ago
        My point was indeed to highlight the EU as a source of peace/stability. But, excess profit taxes are a thing, used to prevent the perverse incentives of capitalism during wartime. Bankrupting the country and bankrupting corporate interests are different things.
  - Nursie 9y ago
    So far as I can tell the major arguments about in/out are almost always hinged on the economics, because everything else is much more subjective. I don't know that a lot of people in the UK are sympathetic to the idea that our membership of the EU is what's keeping the peace.
    - 627467 9y ago
      UK membership may not be the keystone of peace (which is good, IMHO) but it does not mean its membership does not contribute to said peace. I agree it is subjective. But I'd argued most people would think this subjective goal is worth of the effort it costs.
maze-le 9y ago
The UK has a population of 65M. Thus there is a big market for all kinds of exports. As far as cards go this is a big one, but its the only one I can identify.
- cjrp 9y ago
  It goes both ways though; if UK citizens are importing goods it's not because they love the EU and want to support it in any way possible, it's because they want the goods. Making those imports more difficult or more expensive is obviously disadvantageous to the EU exporter, but it's also not exactly brilliant for the UK consumer.
- blibble 9y ago
  and by 2050 will be the largest in Europe, whereas Germany's is predicted to fall by about 10%
  - pjc50 9y ago
    Which propaganda outfit did you get that from, Zerohedge?
    - blibble 9y ago
      ah yes, the old "fake news" argument the data is from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_WPP_2015.pdf https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_...
      - ljf 9y ago
        Note that is from 2015 - long before brexit. 'if' the UK stops immigration then that number will no doubt be smaller. Quote: Between 2015 and 2050, the top net receivers of international migrants (more than 100,000 annually) are projected to be the United States of America, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, the Russian Federation and Italy.

I'm curious: what are the cards UK is holding?

by 627467 9y ago

I'm curious: what are the cards UK is holding?

Trade with one of the world's larger economies. There is clear mutual interest in continuing trade on an open basis. I'm not saying the EU is not in a stronger position, nor am I trying to make any claims that Brexit is good or bad, nor that it is being pursued competently by the current government (far from it). But the assessment of the process as being entirely one sided seems to me to be simplistic.

627467 9y ago
The EU is more than an economic union. In fact, economic integration was/is only one of the strategies to foster lasting European stability, peace and path towards harmony among warring neighbours. To face these negotiations only on the basis of economic gains/lost is ignoring the political and less tangible goals of the union.
- pbhjpbhj 9y ago
  But lack of war in Europe is costing us so much in lost revenue for UK arms manufacturers!
  - oblio 9y ago
    Not to rain on your parade, but the last "European" war almost bankrupted the UK. And back then European countries didn't have nukes while the UK still had an empire. I know you're being sarcastic :)
    - pbhjpbhj 9y ago
      My point was indeed to highlight the EU as a source of peace/stability. But, excess profit taxes are a thing, used to prevent the perverse incentives of capitalism during wartime. Bankrupting the country and bankrupting corporate interests are different things.
- Nursie 9y ago
  So far as I can tell the major arguments about in/out are almost always hinged on the economics, because everything else is much more subjective. I don't know that a lot of people in the UK are sympathetic to the idea that our membership of the EU is what's keeping the peace.
  - 627467 9y ago
    UK membership may not be the keystone of peace (which is good, IMHO) but it does not mean its membership does not contribute to said peace. I agree it is subjective. But I'd argued most people would think this subjective goal is worth of the effort it costs.

maze-le 9y ago

The UK has a population of 65M. Thus there is a big market for all kinds of exports. As far as cards go this is a big one, but its the only one I can identify.

cjrp 9y ago
It goes both ways though; if UK citizens are importing goods it's not because they love the EU and want to support it in any way possible, it's because they want the goods. Making those imports more difficult or more expensive is obviously disadvantageous to the EU exporter, but it's also not exactly brilliant for the UK consumer.
blibble 9y ago
and by 2050 will be the largest in Europe, whereas Germany's is predicted to fall by about 10%
- pjc50 9y ago
  Which propaganda outfit did you get that from, Zerohedge?
  - blibble 9y ago
    ah yes, the old "fake news" argument the data is from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_WPP_2015.pdf https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_...
    - ljf 9y ago
      Note that is from 2015 - long before brexit. 'if' the UK stops immigration then that number will no doubt be smaller. Quote: Between 2015 and 2050, the top net receivers of international migrants (more than 100,000 annually) are projected to be the United States of America, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, the Russian Federation and Italy.