6 ms·

Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Barnier presented a slide with options for the UK and a free trade agreem

by dx034 9y ago

Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Barnier presented a slide with options for the UK and a free trade agreement like with Canada was the only one that doesn't violate red lines set by the UK government. Such a free-trade agreement would allow most goods to flow relatively freely but doesn't have any provisions for services.

Xylakant 9y ago
The Canada solution would take services off the table and that would hit London hard hard.
dhoulb 9y ago
Yeah this seems like the most reasonable option. Even not having service trade isn’t a great disaster. Companies with sizeable EU revenue can just set up a European subsidiary (in Ireland, etc) to conduct business in Europe from the UK (or anywhere). (Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU,) Startups eespecially aren’t held back by these rules right now, they just sell everywhere in USD (and at some point when they’re big enough create an EU subsidiary). The goods thing would be a real issue, if everything on supermarket shelves became 1.5x as expensive. So as long as that’s solved it’ll be fine.
- tobltobs 9y ago
  > Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU What kind of services does the UK export which do not fall into the finance category?
  - ben_w 9y ago
    Software contractors?
    - tobltobs 9y ago
      Isn't the UK a net importer of software contractors?
      - ben_w 9y ago
        I don’t know, but if it’s exportable, it’s exportable.
- lloeki 9y ago
  > Startups eespecially aren’t held back by these rules right now, they just sell everywhere in USD (and at some point when they’re big enough create an EU subsidiary). It's not all about the money, e.g regulations like DPD and soon GDPR can affect this. Legal departments of our customers won't touch anything non-EU based with a 100 mile pole.
- pbhjpbhj 9y ago
  >Companies with sizeable EU revenue can just set up a European subsidiary (in Ireland, etc) to conduct business in Europe from the UK (or anywhere). // Or anywhere ... Why would you go to the bother and expense of being in UK, puppeteering a company in the EU. You just move to the EU and save yourself the cost/hastle.
- ljf 9y ago
  OK - but tell me how that would work for cars for example, to be sold in the EU they need to have a certain percentage assembled in the EU. So really all those jobs will need to jobs to Ireland to be sold in the EU.
Nursie 9y ago
> Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Quite possibly, but I'm not familiar enough with CETA to know the answer to this question - does CETA restrict Canada's ability to enter other trade agreements with third-party nations? The partial Single Market membership mentioned in the article does come with that proviso - that the UK cannot make trade deals with other nations, which is why I think it's an untenable position.
- Anderkent 9y ago
  Do you think UK is open to leaving with no deal then? Granted, if the EU position is sabotaged by some members (as the Polish PM was hinting towards), maybe the UK can get a better deal than what implied by the article. But if the EU stands together, I see little reason for them to be considerate to quitters.
  - the_mitsuhiko 9y ago
    > Granted, if the EU position is sabotaged by some members (as the Polish PM was hinting towards) The biggest problem of the EU is also its biggest strength. It needs unity for this. So if Poland goes rogue nothing happens, article 50 kicks in and no deal happens. That indirectly strengthens the EU now quite a bit ironically enough.
    - blibble 9y ago
      this is incorrect: Article 50 states that the withdrawal agreement only requires a Qualified Majority, not unanimity Poland's consent is not required
      - the_mitsuhiko 9y ago
        > this is incorrect: Article 50 states that the withdrawal agreement only requires a Qualified Majority, not unanimity But a trade deal with the UK does not. We just went through this with CETA.
jlangenauer 9y ago
It's not at all clear though how compatible a Canada-style deal is with not having any sort of border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
djsumdog 9y ago
We don't have bilateral work agreements with Canada. Americans and Canadians still need visas to live and work in the other country. Depending on the deal, UK/EU citizens may lose the ability to work in the others' area. Interestingly enough, Australia and New Zealand have a bilateral work agreement, allowing citizens of either country to be instant residents of the other State upon arrival.

by dx034 9y ago

Xylakant 9y ago

The Canada solution would take services off the table and that would hit London hard hard.

dhoulb 9y ago

Yeah this seems like the most reasonable option. Even not having service trade isn’t a great disaster. Companies with sizeable EU revenue can just set up a European subsidiary (in Ireland, etc) to conduct business in Europe from the UK (or anywhere). (Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU,) Startups eespecially aren’t held back by these rules right now, they just sell everywhere in USD (and at some point when they’re big enough create an EU subsidiary). The goods thing would be a real issue, if everything on supermarket shelves became 1.5x as expensive. So as long as that’s solved it’ll be fine.

tobltobs 9y ago
> Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU What kind of services does the UK export which do not fall into the finance category?
- ben_w 9y ago
  Software contractors?
  - tobltobs 9y ago
    Isn't the UK a net importer of software contractors?
    - ben_w 9y ago
      I don’t know, but if it’s exportable, it’s exportable.
lloeki 9y ago
> Startups eespecially aren’t held back by these rules right now, they just sell everywhere in USD (and at some point when they’re big enough create an EU subsidiary). It's not all about the money, e.g regulations like DPD and soon GDPR can affect this. Legal departments of our customers won't touch anything non-EU based with a 100 mile pole.
pbhjpbhj 9y ago
>Companies with sizeable EU revenue can just set up a European subsidiary (in Ireland, etc) to conduct business in Europe from the UK (or anywhere). // Or anywhere ... Why would you go to the bother and expense of being in UK, puppeteering a company in the EU. You just move to the EU and save yourself the cost/hastle.
ljf 9y ago
OK - but tell me how that would work for cars for example, to be sold in the EU they need to have a certain percentage assembled in the EU. So really all those jobs will need to jobs to Ireland to be sold in the EU.

Nursie 9y ago

> Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Quite possibly, but I'm not familiar enough with CETA to know the answer to this question - does CETA restrict Canada's ability to enter other trade agreements with third-party nations? The partial Single Market membership mentioned in the article does come with that proviso - that the UK cannot make trade deals with other nations, which is why I think it's an untenable position.

Anderkent 9y ago
Do you think UK is open to leaving with no deal then? Granted, if the EU position is sabotaged by some members (as the Polish PM was hinting towards), maybe the UK can get a better deal than what implied by the article. But if the EU stands together, I see little reason for them to be considerate to quitters.
- the_mitsuhiko 9y ago
  > Granted, if the EU position is sabotaged by some members (as the Polish PM was hinting towards) The biggest problem of the EU is also its biggest strength. It needs unity for this. So if Poland goes rogue nothing happens, article 50 kicks in and no deal happens. That indirectly strengthens the EU now quite a bit ironically enough.
  - blibble 9y ago
    this is incorrect: Article 50 states that the withdrawal agreement only requires a Qualified Majority, not unanimity Poland's consent is not required
    - the_mitsuhiko 9y ago
      > this is incorrect: Article 50 states that the withdrawal agreement only requires a Qualified Majority, not unanimity But a trade deal with the UK does not. We just went through this with CETA.

jlangenauer 9y ago

It's not at all clear though how compatible a Canada-style deal is with not having any sort of border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

djsumdog 9y ago

We don't have bilateral work agreements with Canada. Americans and Canadians still need visas to live and work in the other country. Depending on the deal, UK/EU citizens may lose the ability to work in the others' area. Interestingly enough, Australia and New Zealand have a bilateral work agreement, allowing citizens of either country to be instant residents of the other State upon arrival.