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Why does seeing an ad for an established cryptocurrency signal a crash? Do you think the same thing about tech stocks when you see an ad for a new tech company?

PeterisP 9y ago
If you're seeing an ad for the stock of a tech company, then yes, that's generally an indicator of something like a penny stock pump-and-dump action. If you invest money to advertise speculative instruments, then that pretty much means that you intend to sell those instruments after the ad-caused short-term rise in demand and thus price.
- taysic 9y ago
  The cryptocurrency is their product actually.
api 9y ago
Have you lived through a bubble before? One ad in isolation doesn't mean much. It's the whole picture. Bubbles have a certain look and feel. I am 39 which is like 80 in programmer years. I've seen a lot of fads and bubbles in my lifetime. The downside of being older is that you're not quite able (for many reasons including lifestyle and family) to work like a 20 year old, but the upside is that you've had a chance to develop a ton of meta-meta pattern recognition. Your neural net has accumulated a lot of training data. Like I said I've lived through two mega-bubbles: dot.com and housing. This looks exactly like the tail end of those. Deja moo, man. Deja moo. If I held a lot of Bitcoin I would start dollar cost averaging out, like yesterday. It's better to miss out on some of the last waves in a bubble than to get caught in the monster riptide when the crash comes. Edit: if you do get caught in the crash, do this: If you can't convert to USD/EUR/etc., take your Bitcoin or whatevercoin and transfer it out of an exchange and into a private wallet that you control. If the transaction fees are high just eat it. Better to get it out of an exchange that could collapse at any second. Then just sit on it. Be prepared to sit on it for years. It may eventually regain at least some of its former value. In the meantime buy popcorn and watch the show.
- lurr 9y ago
  You know you have many, many 20-something year old people agreeing with you right?
  - api 9y ago
    I didn't intend to be reverse-age-ist. Was just pointing out that bubbles are more obvious if you've seen a few, and I must admit that I assumed the parent to have not seen many since this one is so damn obvious.
    - lurr 9y ago
      > I didn't intend to be reverse-age-ist. No one ever does. also it's not reverse-ageism, it's just ageism.
- petre 9y ago
  This is sensible advice except for the sit on it part. I would rather convert it like yesterday into anything that is useful for storing value like gold, silver, jewelery, collector's items etc. Worth more than hashes on a digital wallet on some bit rotting flash drive. Of course, to do that you must first take it out of the exchange.
- jsutton 9y ago
  I agree with many of your points. There is certainly a bubble feel around this. But I don't think that shrugging away all cryptocurrencies/tokens as a dangerous mistake is the answer. Nor is waiting for the big crash (time in the market > timing the market). There will be many losing cryptocurrencies after the bubble bursts, but some will survive and thrive.
cheez 9y ago
When's the last time you saw an ad for USD? That's the difference.
- adamnemecek 9y ago
  You can't really compare these two.
  - cheez 9y ago
    Then what do you compare it to?
    - adamnemecek 9y ago
      It's part currency, part forex, part stock, part game money (like Wow gold or whatnot) and a couple of other things. It's also a vehicle for people from less than stable countries to store their money. This market is fundamentally underserved. They can't trade the US/EU stock markets easily. Crypto is volatile but very possibly better than the local currency.
      - cheez 9y ago
        Sounds like they're boiling the ocean, but I do agree that it would be better to have a decentralized worldwide currency. Not sure if that will ever be allowed to happen if people can't control it.

PeterisP 9y ago

If you're seeing an ad for the stock of a tech company, then yes, that's generally an indicator of something like a penny stock pump-and-dump action. If you invest money to advertise speculative instruments, then that pretty much means that you intend to sell those instruments after the ad-caused short-term rise in demand and thus price.

taysic 9y ago
The cryptocurrency is their product actually.

api 9y ago

Have you lived through a bubble before? One ad in isolation doesn't mean much. It's the whole picture. Bubbles have a certain look and feel. I am 39 which is like 80 in programmer years. I've seen a lot of fads and bubbles in my lifetime. The downside of being older is that you're not quite able (for many reasons including lifestyle and family) to work like a 20 year old, but the upside is that you've had a chance to develop a ton of meta-meta pattern recognition. Your neural net has accumulated a lot of training data. Like I said I've lived through two mega-bubbles: dot.com and housing. This looks exactly like the tail end of those. Deja moo, man. Deja moo. If I held a lot of Bitcoin I would start dollar cost averaging out, like yesterday. It's better to miss out on some of the last waves in a bubble than to get caught in the monster riptide when the crash comes. Edit: if you do get caught in the crash, do this: If you can't convert to USD/EUR/etc., take your Bitcoin or whatevercoin and transfer it out of an exchange and into a private wallet that you control. If the transaction fees are high just eat it. Better to get it out of an exchange that could collapse at any second. Then just sit on it. Be prepared to sit on it for years. It may eventually regain at least some of its former value. In the meantime buy popcorn and watch the show.

lurr 9y ago
You know you have many, many 20-something year old people agreeing with you right?
- api 9y ago
  I didn't intend to be reverse-age-ist. Was just pointing out that bubbles are more obvious if you've seen a few, and I must admit that I assumed the parent to have not seen many since this one is so damn obvious.
  - lurr 9y ago
    > I didn't intend to be reverse-age-ist. No one ever does. also it's not reverse-ageism, it's just ageism.
petre 9y ago
This is sensible advice except for the sit on it part. I would rather convert it like yesterday into anything that is useful for storing value like gold, silver, jewelery, collector's items etc. Worth more than hashes on a digital wallet on some bit rotting flash drive. Of course, to do that you must first take it out of the exchange.
jsutton 9y ago
I agree with many of your points. There is certainly a bubble feel around this. But I don't think that shrugging away all cryptocurrencies/tokens as a dangerous mistake is the answer. Nor is waiting for the big crash (time in the market > timing the market). There will be many losing cryptocurrencies after the bubble bursts, but some will survive and thrive.

cheez 9y ago

When's the last time you saw an ad for USD? That's the difference.

adamnemecek 9y ago
You can't really compare these two.
- cheez 9y ago
  Then what do you compare it to?
  - adamnemecek 9y ago
    It's part currency, part forex, part stock, part game money (like Wow gold or whatnot) and a couple of other things. It's also a vehicle for people from less than stable countries to store their money. This market is fundamentally underserved. They can't trade the US/EU stock markets easily. Crypto is volatile but very possibly better than the local currency.
    - cheez 9y ago
      Sounds like they're boiling the ocean, but I do agree that it would be better to have a decentralized worldwide currency. Not sure if that will ever be allowed to happen if people can't control it.