4 ms·
> So, why hasn't it happened yet? What is the crucial detail that these articles always leave out? This article makes the point. The fungus has no quick propog
by ethbro 9y ago
> So, why hasn't it happened yet? What is the crucial detail that these articles always leave out?
This article makes the point. The fungus has no quick propogation methods, as it's only spread by moving infected earth: it's simply very resilient once established.
So the last X years have been a slow motion "We know this is a problem. It's becoming a bigger and bigger problem. Eventually it will be an insurmountable problem."
The article also notes that there were a substantial number of "flex years" the last time this happened, as deforestation was used to open up new, un-infected land for banana cultivation.
In summary: it's like the IPv6 problem.
We knew it was coming, but resource exhaustion takes time.
- jeron 9y agoI love how a parallel can be drawn between bananas and IPV6
- rev_null 9y agoInedible Plantains Version 6?
- wildflowero 9y agoInnocuous Plantains Version 6.
- QAPereo 9y agoThank you so much, this is the first time I’ve seen this explained in terms I fully grasp. I was getting to the point of wondering whether or not these articles were submarines, but your explanation is far more cogent.
- ethbro 9y agoGlad it helped. I think it's easy to lose switches of change time magnitude when we're mostly looking at silicon / software. Biology, ecology, geology, and cosmology all work on their own timescales. :)
- thriftwy 9y agoBy then, can't we just CRISPR the fix into banana?
- wbillingsley 9y agoSomeone's already done that... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6 Still has to go through all the usual trials, etc, before it can be grown commercially, and then there'd be questions over GM regulation, market-acceptance, and whether the crop is productive and easy to manage for commercial growers to sort. (Usual productisation questions for a new crop variety to have to jump through.)
- ethbro 9y agoAlso, concerns about the long term (decades+) results of fixing similar issue by only splicing new genes in. Nature exploits opportunities. If we're still planting monocultures of cloned plants (plus whatever genes), that's still going to be enticing prey. See: Roundup resistant weeds. And life, as they say, finds a way.
- thriftwy 9y agoI'm not sure that fungus gains anything evolutionarily meaningful from learning to infect this particular banana. The only thing you get from this is annoying humans, which doesn't sound a very good evolutionary strategy (second only to being used in Chinese traditional medicine)
- Dylan16807 9y agoKnowing it's a real problem actually comforts me to an extent. If we can slow these kinds of things down, then we can win the race of making new varieties.