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Novogratz Halts Hedge Fund, Says Bitcoin May Drop to $8,000
- baq 9y agoor $800... it's a crazy market.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- tw1010 9y agoN=1 data point says thing about stock, quick, let's all sell
- sna1l 9y agohttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-22/mike-novogratz-delays-crypto-hedge-fund-launch-warns-bitcoins-going-8000 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-22/mike-novogratz-dela... -- Funny that the price went up after his announcement. Correlation not causation, but ironic nonetheless.
- thisisit 9y agoThe way Novogratz talks in the interview embedded in the ZH post: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/the-man-who-called-the-bitcoin-rally-sees-this-for-litecoin.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/the-man-who-called-the... is really weird. People might disagree with me but I think he comes off as unreliable.
- bobcat9 9y agoSounds like they forgot it's a volatile market where 30% drops are the norm.
- jpmattia 9y agoFor comparison, he also thinks it's going to $40K by EOY 2018. http://www.businessinsider.com/novogratz-bitcoin-could-be-at-40000-by-end-of-next-year-2017-11 http://www.businessinsider.com/novogratz-bitcoin-could-be-at...
- thisisit 9y agoAnd he also says "It is going to become the biggest bubble of our lifetime" in the video embedded with the bloomberg article.
- booleanbetrayal 9y agoTruly a Janus!
- asciimo 9y agoWell, if you predict every possible outcome, you will be right at least once.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- mv4 9y agoHe is just hedging.
- jonathanjaeger 9y agoBut halts hedge fund
- killjoywashere 9y agopossibly temporarily.
- Alex3917 9y agoWhat he's saying is that in the next few weeks it's going to drop as low as 8k, it will be as much as 40k by the end of the next year, and within 5 - 10 years it will be the biggest bubble of our lifetimes. It's really not that complicated.
- coralreef 9y agoThe internet was a big bubble, and quite a few stocks survived and made handsome returns.
- comboy 9y agoI refuse to believe that he didn't anticipate this given how insanely it was going up lately. I'm surprised he haven't bought back yet and wants it to go lower. It totally could though. Just 2 months ago $10k for Christmas sounded very optimistic.
- jacquesm 9y ago> Just 2 months ago $10k for Christmas sounded very optimistic. Who knows, it might still be very optimistic today.
- mutteraloo 9y agoIt could also go back to $100. Bitcoin has no mainstream use right now. It's too expensive to transact in terms of money and time, it's too volatile to be a store of value, it's too technical to be used casually, it's too fragile since it gets hacked every which way, and it's too easily copied to be rare.
- tomcooks 9y agoBitcoin never got hacked, unsecure middlemen did (or pretended to have been)
- dumbfounder 9y agoTo most people there is no difference. The consequence is that Bitcoin seems unsafe because there has been lots of money stolen. It's like the Oracle bug I am tackling today, my customers don't care if it's Oracle's fault, they just know my product doesn't work.
- ransom1538 9y agoMy entire wallet was stolen [i] -- all that hard work. But that is great news Bitcoin never got hacked -- I got nervous there. /sarcasm http://www.cryptsysettlement.com/ http://www.cryptsysettlement.com/ [i]
- slphil 9y agoYes, this is not a Bitcoin vulnerability. Getting access to your wallet is not the same as cracking it.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- slphil 9y agoDon't understand why I'm being downvoted. Don't put your coins on an exchange, ever, unless you want to risk them being lost. This is cryptocurrency 101.
- dahdum 9y agoHedge funds can short too, why the cold feet all of a sudden? My guess is he's shorting the markets or couldn't raise the capital after all. Or ultimately thought the risk to his reputation if his fund failed was too high.
- bob_theslob646 9y agoIt's different shorting when you have to put up so much capital to short all at once. To give you an idea, on future exchanges in the United States, you have to put up a 90% maintenance margin, compared to other commodities that allow you to maintain 40%. Options not being written is another factor. >Getting cold feet ? I bet it's not easy raising money when the asset you are trading falls 40% in two days.
- dahdum 9y agoIf he knew it would and cashed in on that capital would come quickly. From the article I see part of it was regulatory burden and propriety of trading his own crypto while maintaining the fund. That makes sense but nothing to do with the current drop, good excuse though.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- vasilipupkin 9y agoYeah, this seems like weird erratic behavior. I mean if you are raising a big fund for bitcoin and you think it's going to drop, that's good for yoi because you can buy it cheaper. And if you are not a bitcoin bull, why raise a fund in the first place? Something is up with this guy
- vm 9y agoHe could be massively shorting it and using negative press to panic retail investors into selling, driving down prices further (and increasing profits on his short). Not uncommon for public equity hedge funds. Makes sense that someone would do it in the wild west of cryptocurrencies.
- vasilipupkin 9y agoHe could, but if he is telling prospective investors one thing and doing another, that's a recipe for legal problems
- matwood 9y agoIIRC, BTC has gone from ~$3k to it's current levels from the time when he first mentioned starting a hedge to fund to when it was supposed open last week. Typical financial instruments have a hard time keeping up with the current crypto volatility.
- iwcmarkxviii 9y agoActually not that erratic. he doesn't have enough stake in BTC or ETH to make massive market movements. he's wants to drive the price down to buy more and the only way is through his position of "influence." BTC will make a massive rebound in 2018. I'm sure a lot of BTC bulls have full knowledge of this possibility and are acquiring as many as possible.
- vasilipupkin 9y agoYeah, but then why shut the fund ?
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- KasianFranks 9y agoMore FUD which for a hedge fund guy is half the basis of their profit e.g. Jamie Dimon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_raEUMLL-ZI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_raEUMLL-ZI or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3i3OUbxXI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3i3OUbxXI I'd pay more attention to the damage banks and investment banks have done to poor people.
- arisAlexis 9y agoand because he says it, its the truth and finally HN can say I told you so it's a bubble!
- 0x445442 9y agoAnd if it went to $8K today it would be up ~1000% over the last 12 months.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- etherwhitelable 9y agoThis is typical bullcrap from Wall Street. I think its going down but I also think its going up...if it doesnt drop in 4 months he can claim to be a sage. If it drops he can be a right that way too. What Novo is being indecisive and wishy washy.
- kjrose 9y agoSo basically he’s saying that there is no legitimate way to apply a value to bitcoin so the price could be worth 100 or a million a bitcoin. Which is correct since the value of it is mostly driven by speculation right now. There’s no telling how much it will swing.
- mmgutz 9y agoIt was at $10.5K this morning. It bounced back to after yesterday's global dip. Don't think it's dipping to $8K.
- iagooar 9y agoGood time to buy if it drops to that price. EOY 2018 Bitcoin could be worth 10x that.
- kbwt 9y agoCould also be worth 100x less.
- banku_brougham 9y agoI want to know what platform someone like him can use to transact $250MM out of Bitcoin into USD (in his personal trading acount he said, actually $250MM was the profit). As I understand, its not easy to convert to cash, especially in large volume.
- 659087 9y agoI'm sure Bitfinex would happily give him some "USD"* for it, just as soon as they fire the printing press up again. * Internet monopoly money
- omarforgotpwd 9y agoHow the fuck is some guy, or anyone for that matter supposed to know where the Bitcoin price is going to go? Yeah it could go to 1,000 or even 100... it could also go to 100,000 by next month. There are so many factors at play it’s extremely difficult to make a prediction with a high degree of confidence. If this guy thinks it’s going to drop to $8000 just because the price fell 20% in one day he must be new to this. There have been many many cases where the price dropped like crazy and then picked back up within no time.
- jondubois 9y agoBy making the prediction, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. He is probably just trying to make the price drop more so that he can buy even more Bitcoin. The end of the year is often a time when people get together... Bitcoin is bound to come up in conversations. So I think that there might actually be a big rise in interest after Christmas.
- charlesdm 9y agoWhat do you do when you're raising a $500m fund and the train is leaving without you?
- madaxe_again 9y agoThe last few days have been delightful for longer term holders - it’s just been wave after wave of panic selling, with everybody seemingly forgetting that there are futures contracts out there for Jan delivery at $16k+. I think what we’ve just seen is a bit of a forced sell off, to drive the price down before the next big speculative bubble, which will likely mirror the one after thanksgiving.
- Fnoord 9y ago"After Christmas" is vague. Its likely people are going to buy a lot right after dec 31 because taxation upcoming this year is about what's owned from before jan 1. The IRS et al is also going to receive some large sums of money over Bitcoins in 2017. Disclaimer: I don't know any cryptocurrency.
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- johnwheeler 9y agooooh soothsayer, tell me what you see