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Respectfully, what drives people to post tulip and dot-com bubble comparisons on literally every cryptocurrency / blockchain post? We saw it yesterday. We saw i

Respectfully, what drives people to post tulip and dot-com bubble comparisons on literally every cryptocurrency / blockchain post? We saw it yesterday. We saw it last week. And a few months ago. And in 2016, and 2014, and 2012. It's unfalsifiable and meaningless. We don't need to have this same "point" made on every post.

darkstar999 9y ago
To counter the irrational crypto people.
- moduspol 9y ago
  Perhaps we don't need it in every borderline-relevant thread, though.
  - root_axis 9y ago
    Perhaps we don't need a half dozen blockchain stories on the front page every day, it's borderline spam. These threads always rehash the same arguments on both sides.
  - Nursie 9y ago
    Perhaps we do need to have a lick of sense and critical thought put into these discussions, every time. Otherwise you risk just being in a positive-reinforcement echo chamber.
    - moduspol 9y ago
      We're well beyond a "lick," and nobody benefits from reading for the millionth time that a random HN commenter thinks it's just like tulips.
      - Nursie 9y ago
        You're commenting on an article in which a small soft drink company has just sextupled it's share price by changing its name to include the word "Blockchain", and you're not seeing a tulip angle?
sgt101 9y ago
If just one person is contemplating betting their mortgage on bitcoin and they are made to think differently because of a bubble post then it's worth it to me!
- charlesdm 9y ago
  Not that I think you're wrong, but every person who did that in 2014, 2015 or 2016 probably begs to differ. In fact, if they sell today, they'd probably be set for life.
  - overcast 9y ago
    Guaranteed anyone foolish enough to bet their mortgage at those times, bought high and sold low in fear of losing it all. They are not the rational type.
    - charlesdm 9y ago
      Maybe. I don't necessarily think taking a huge risk with substantial upside is always an idiotic thing to do. Yes it might be a gamble and speculation, but get it right in a bubble and you're (sort of) set for life. You can make a good calculated bet and see it pay off. Any engineer on $100k to 200k a year can probably afford to put $200k in crypto and recover if it evaporates. If you compare to certain high risk shares trading on the stock market (i.e. some tech and biotech shares), even though crypto might have a 10x upside, I don't think investing in crypto is 10 times as risky. If you're aggressive, you're probably better off investing in crypto today than in the market.
      - overcast 9y ago
        Ok, so for majority of the rest of the population, without access to six figure incomes. Bitcoin is completely irrational. There is a guy in my shop right now, a shop full of guys making maybe $15 an hr at the high end, handing out his "bitcoin consultant" business card. These are the people making irrational bets on this, while those invested years ago are profiting on their foolish dreams. People with no money to be wasting, are wasting their money.
matwood 9y ago
I agree. Tulips are more like the beanie baby craze. At least crypto and dotcom can be somewhat relatable. Yes, dotcom went crazy and crashed, but the internet did end up changing the world. Crypto though is no where near the scale of the dotcom mania.
- koonsolo 9y ago
  I never really agree with all the bubble talk, but this one I can relate to. Everyone is creating their own crypto, ICO, blockchain technology, etc. Even people who don't really understand it are suddenly experts. But that doesn't mean that it will all be bubble. In the end, the potential of cryptocurrencies competing with central banks is still there. But if they will, and which one, and which one is now under- or over-valued, is anyone's (calculated) guess.
andrewmcwatters 9y ago
Saying it's meaningless is just being obtuse. History shows these economic bubbles don't happen every day, and there's something for people to learn here if they haven't experienced one or heard stories from friends or family that have. > We saw it yesterday. We saw it last week. And a few months ago. And in 2016, and 2014, and 2012. You do realize that economic bubbles rise and fall in the span of years, right? This isn't going to inflate and then pop next week.
- moduspol 9y ago
  They don't need to read about tulip / dot-com bubbles in every single thread. It's not as if this viewpoint is novel, or some kind of secret. We get it. > You do realize that economic bubbles rise and fall in the span of years, right? Yes. And everyone making these bubble / tulip comparisons should acknowledge how the view is unfalsifiable.
  - andrewmcwatters 9y ago
    Yeah, people get it; which is why people are talking about it in the first place, how dense can you be?
    - moduspol 9y ago
      We don't need it in every thread. Cryptocurrencies and blockchains are significant technological innovations. There is more to discuss than making the same tired tulip comparisons.
      - spookthesunset 9y ago
        > Cryptocurrencies and blockchains are significant technological innovations. Hardly. The Blockchain uses the same kind of underpinnings as git. In fact, for many applications git might even be a better data store than The Blockchain--it doesn't require a bajillion miners consuming several hydroelectric dams worth of power to stay online.
notyourday 9y ago
> Respectfully, what drives people to post tulip and dot-com bubble comparisons on literally every cryptocurrency / blockchain post? See the story above. > And a few months ago. And in 2016, and 2014, and 2012. Nothing changed other than paper gains increased.
- filesystem 9y ago
  > Nothing changed other than paper gains increased. Is this implying that cryptocurrencies have not evolved over that time period? I think you know that this is false.
  - notyourday 9y ago
    Let see: 1. they are slower 2. it is more difficult to cash them out Looks like utility decreased.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
colorint 9y ago
In this case it's probably justified: one of the hallmarks of "modern" bubbles, or at least of modern speculative hype that doesn't work out, is that renaming a company based on the hype increases its stock price without any change in the fundamentals. This has a long history, including companies during the dotcom bubble increasing their stock price by giving themselves techy names.

darkstar999 9y ago

To counter the irrational crypto people.

moduspol 9y ago
Perhaps we don't need it in every borderline-relevant thread, though.
- root_axis 9y ago
  Perhaps we don't need a half dozen blockchain stories on the front page every day, it's borderline spam. These threads always rehash the same arguments on both sides.
- Nursie 9y ago
  Perhaps we do need to have a lick of sense and critical thought put into these discussions, every time. Otherwise you risk just being in a positive-reinforcement echo chamber.
  - moduspol 9y ago
    We're well beyond a "lick," and nobody benefits from reading for the millionth time that a random HN commenter thinks it's just like tulips.
    - Nursie 9y ago
      You're commenting on an article in which a small soft drink company has just sextupled it's share price by changing its name to include the word "Blockchain", and you're not seeing a tulip angle?

sgt101 9y ago

If just one person is contemplating betting their mortgage on bitcoin and they are made to think differently because of a bubble post then it's worth it to me!

charlesdm 9y ago
Not that I think you're wrong, but every person who did that in 2014, 2015 or 2016 probably begs to differ. In fact, if they sell today, they'd probably be set for life.
- overcast 9y ago
  Guaranteed anyone foolish enough to bet their mortgage at those times, bought high and sold low in fear of losing it all. They are not the rational type.
  - charlesdm 9y ago
    Maybe. I don't necessarily think taking a huge risk with substantial upside is always an idiotic thing to do. Yes it might be a gamble and speculation, but get it right in a bubble and you're (sort of) set for life. You can make a good calculated bet and see it pay off. Any engineer on $100k to 200k a year can probably afford to put $200k in crypto and recover if it evaporates. If you compare to certain high risk shares trading on the stock market (i.e. some tech and biotech shares), even though crypto might have a 10x upside, I don't think investing in crypto is 10 times as risky. If you're aggressive, you're probably better off investing in crypto today than in the market.
    - overcast 9y ago
      Ok, so for majority of the rest of the population, without access to six figure incomes. Bitcoin is completely irrational. There is a guy in my shop right now, a shop full of guys making maybe $15 an hr at the high end, handing out his "bitcoin consultant" business card. These are the people making irrational bets on this, while those invested years ago are profiting on their foolish dreams. People with no money to be wasting, are wasting their money.

matwood 9y ago

I agree. Tulips are more like the beanie baby craze. At least crypto and dotcom can be somewhat relatable. Yes, dotcom went crazy and crashed, but the internet did end up changing the world. Crypto though is no where near the scale of the dotcom mania.

koonsolo 9y ago
I never really agree with all the bubble talk, but this one I can relate to. Everyone is creating their own crypto, ICO, blockchain technology, etc. Even people who don't really understand it are suddenly experts. But that doesn't mean that it will all be bubble. In the end, the potential of cryptocurrencies competing with central banks is still there. But if they will, and which one, and which one is now under- or over-valued, is anyone's (calculated) guess.

andrewmcwatters 9y ago

Saying it's meaningless is just being obtuse. History shows these economic bubbles don't happen every day, and there's something for people to learn here if they haven't experienced one or heard stories from friends or family that have. > We saw it yesterday. We saw it last week. And a few months ago. And in 2016, and 2014, and 2012. You do realize that economic bubbles rise and fall in the span of years, right? This isn't going to inflate and then pop next week.

moduspol 9y ago
They don't need to read about tulip / dot-com bubbles in every single thread. It's not as if this viewpoint is novel, or some kind of secret. We get it. > You do realize that economic bubbles rise and fall in the span of years, right? Yes. And everyone making these bubble / tulip comparisons should acknowledge how the view is unfalsifiable.
- andrewmcwatters 9y ago
  Yeah, people get it; which is why people are talking about it in the first place, how dense can you be?
  - moduspol 9y ago
    We don't need it in every thread. Cryptocurrencies and blockchains are significant technological innovations. There is more to discuss than making the same tired tulip comparisons.
    - spookthesunset 9y ago
      > Cryptocurrencies and blockchains are significant technological innovations. Hardly. The Blockchain uses the same kind of underpinnings as git. In fact, for many applications git might even be a better data store than The Blockchain--it doesn't require a bajillion miners consuming several hydroelectric dams worth of power to stay online.

notyourday 9y ago

> Respectfully, what drives people to post tulip and dot-com bubble comparisons on literally every cryptocurrency / blockchain post? See the story above. > And a few months ago. And in 2016, and 2014, and 2012. Nothing changed other than paper gains increased.

filesystem 9y ago
> Nothing changed other than paper gains increased. Is this implying that cryptocurrencies have not evolved over that time period? I think you know that this is false.
- notyourday 9y ago
  Let see: 1. they are slower 2. it is more difficult to cash them out Looks like utility decreased.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

colorint 9y ago

In this case it's probably justified: one of the hallmarks of "modern" bubbles, or at least of modern speculative hype that doesn't work out, is that renaming a company based on the hype increases its stock price without any change in the fundamentals. This has a long history, including companies during the dotcom bubble increasing their stock price by giving themselves techy names.