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Certainly. However, spaceflight is getting cheaper by the year and is heading into a significant phase change related to costs. Soon the market will be dominat
by InclinedPlane 9y ago
Certainly.
However, spaceflight is getting cheaper by the year and is heading into a significant phase change related to costs. Soon the market will be dominated by partially reusable rockets. After a generation or two of improvements those reusable rockets will drive launch costs down by at least an order of magnitude if not two compared to today. That will make doing anything in space cheaper, and it's a fair bet that you'll see more organizations "doing stuff" (launching payloads) into space as a consequence (in fact, this is already happening).
Additionally, there are follow-on effects, especially when it comes to manned spaceflight. Take the ISS for example. Because it exists it means there is a call for services for it, such as crew transfers (Soyuz, formerly Shuttle, and soon Dragon/CST-100), resupply (Progress, Dragon, HTV, Antares, etc.), and module delivery. Lower cost launches would translate naturally to more activity in Earth orbit and more call for services, leading to a feedback loop of increasing activity. Within 20 years you'll see not just space stations but orbital towns and maybe even cities, as well as industrial establishments where R&D is performed on-orbit. Imagine how much more effective you could be at designing satellites and spacecraft if you had an on orbit environment that you could as a prototype test environment whenever you wanted to at low cost. All of that translates into orders of magnitude more activity in space at orders of magnitude lower marginal costs.
And in that environment, asteroid mining seems pretty sensible, not for service to Earth's surface but for service to on orbit activities. For one the equipment and infrastructure to exploit such resources will be cheaper to put into space due to lower launch costs, lowering the necessary price-point where profit is possible. For another, the customer base will be large and capable of making use of even bulk materials.
In that world, the world of 10, 20, 30+ years from now, asteroid mining will make sound economic sense. But the time to begin pursuing technology development is not 30 years from now, it's today. Building prototypes, figuring out what's possible, learning the early lessons as early as possible at comparatively low cost will give those operators a huge jump as changes bring their business into viability. Especially so in regard to the legal precedents in terms of laying claim to resources. For something that could easily be a trillion dollar a year, or more, industry in 30 years, that's an excellent RoI.
- Retric 9y agoIn zero g you don't need much is the way of scaffolding, so satiates are almost entirely highly manufactured things like CPU's, solar panels, batteries etc. Their is some need for propellant but ion drives minimize that need. So, to benifit from space mining you need space manufacturing which is a very large very unsolved problem.
- nradov 9y agoWe're not going to see orbiting towns in 20 years. A town means a place where someone can spend their whole life. But living in zero-g for over a year causes serious health problems. We might be able to solve that with spinning habitats for artificial gravity but considering no one is making serious plans to build those it's going to take a lot longer than 20 years. As robotics and AI technology improves I expect very few humans will be sent into space. We're too expensive to keep alive.
- AlanSE 9y agoWith only a handful of people actually in space right now, one of their primary functions is to be guinea pigs for the long-term effects of microgravity. Absolutely nothing about that is true for the case of a station with 100 people engaged in regular operations. You don't have to have a centrifuge for 100 people, one with capacity for 20 people, cycling the people in and out in rotation is probably sufficient. The wheel radius can be kept quite small, because nausea scales with the amount of movement the people in the wheel have. Easy solution - just don't have them move while in the wheel. This is still unknown territory, but already we have made significant progress developing routines that reduce bone decalcification on the ISS, and that's with pure microgravity. Talking about the first orbiting station with 100 or 1,000 people.. these will not be comfortable places. They will be extremely poor destinations for a relaxing vacation. But people should be able to work there sustainably, in rotations, as part of their careers. It's still allowable to call those places towns in the same way people call aircraft carriers cities today.