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Here is Warren Buffet's similar argument against gold from his 2011 annual investor letter [0]. The argument also applies to Bitcoin and other assets that are d
by berberous 9y ago
Here is Warren Buffet's similar argument against gold from his 2011 annual investor letter [0]. The argument also applies to Bitcoin and other assets that are driven more by speculation than productive income streams:
"The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.
This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce – it will remain lifeless forever – but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.
The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.
What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis.
As “bandwagon” investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while. Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the “proof” delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers – for a time – expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.”
Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B? Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.
A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.
Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B."
[0] http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
Edit: If you enjoyed the above excerpt, I'd recommend reading it in context, pp. 17 (start at the heading) through end of 19. I've excerpted only the middle part on gold, but he also explains the dangers of holding cash, and further explains why he favors productive investments.
- kaiwen1 9y ago> You can fondle the cube and it will not respond. And with bitcoin you can't even fondle the cube.
- vidanay 9y agoI still don't know how to Gleam the Cube, and now we are fondling it?
- XR0CSWV3h3kZWg 9y agoNow that is well written! Current price of bitcoin is ~9.9k total supply is well over 17 million. lets call it 10k and 20 million. We're sitting at ~ 0.2 trillion. For that you could buy paypal, square, moneygram and Western Union and still have plenty left over. That's fairly surprising. Bitcoin alone is within striking distance of the market cap of visa.
- Scoundreller 9y ago> total supply is well over 17 million How many of those 17 million have been effectively lost forever?
- XR0CSWV3h3kZWg 9y agoI'd love to see a write up, there are some that are well known to be lost, and plenty of stories of lost bitcoin. I'd love to a hard amount for the first and some estimates for the second.
- jest3r1 9y agoI wonder if Bitcoin has more utility (potential) compared to gold though? For example, if you purchase SaaS products with Bitcoin, you don't need to trust that the service provider or their merchant provider will handle your personally identifiable information with care (eg. billing info), because you didn't have to provide the information. Perhaps there are other utility uses for Bitcoin that will eventually lead to demand based on something more than fear?