4 ms·

I've been commenting on here for almost 10 years. I've been wrong sometimes, but I've called a lot right (from Tesla, Apple, Facebook, Bitcoin, AI). Next decad

I've been commenting on here for almost 10 years. I've been wrong sometimes, but I've called a lot right (from Tesla, Apple, Facebook, Bitcoin, AI). Next decade is going to be cyber security and a word that I doesn't exist yet that I think of as "personification" of the internet. Combination of webs of trust and machine learning to both shape tastes and politics and harden networks from their shaping. Also, I think there is a pretty good chance that biology takes off, starting with GATACA or something like it for dogs. People want old scratch to live forever and not get hip dysplasia, and once old doggo is doing fine with Gene Drive then we're not going to be far off. Also, people are much more comfortable thinking with graphs of data. Think about tying together graphs that we can use to make predictions and watch companies like meta.com (bought by Zuck, that guy is a genius) and researchgate.net. Also get ready for mass protests and "eat the rich" politics. Especially in America where the poor are poorly educated and the political system is corrupt enough to be evil enough to not support the poor, but not corrupt enough to collapse the private sector.

beambot 9y ago
So... Which investments specifically?
blahshaw 9y ago
I think cyber security is going to be huge too, but not sure how to make a play on it, don't see any obvious winners in the security space. What approach do you take?
- 3pt14159 9y ago
  If you're not in the position to angel invest I don't have anything top of mind to share. I think most of the stock market is overpriced, but Facebook is still probably a reasonable bet. If I knew the next Bitcoin I'd definitely have typed it out. Sometimes the answer is to just wait and see and let your thoughts kinda work through things. What I know for sure is that there are a lot of powerful people that found out how important cyber security is in the past couple years. Snowden, Clinton, Paradise Papers. The market will do its best to try to meet this need.
  - blahshaw 9y ago
    And if I were in a position to angel invest?
    - 3pt14159 9y ago
      My email is in my profile.
- czbond 9y ago
  From a work perspective, I recall reading that in the next 10 years, 6 of 10 people on a development team will be security related. [Looked for the source, can't find it, due your own diligence]. 1.8 Million security jobs vacant by 2022. https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/07/global-cybersecurity-workforce-to-be-short-by-1-8-million-personnel-by-2022-up-20-on-2015/ https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/07/global-cybersecurity-work... The need for very seasoned professionals who have BOTH security and heavy development/business/architecture backgrounds will be a scarce thing.
noetic_techy 9y ago
--> Combination of webs of trust and machine learning to both shape tastes and politics and harden networks from their shaping. Can you elaborate on this with an example of a future scenario? Thinking about this is throwing me for a loop. Are you talking about some deeper level of web curation not yet achieved? People ever more entrenched in their own AI curated "bubbles"? "Harden networks from their shaping" Qwut?
- 3pt14159 9y ago
  Imagine social networks where you couldn't just make 100 bots. Through some low friction mechanism the people that you trusted most would be identified to you as such and by extension the people they most trusted would be visually indicated to you. Settings would allow you to completely filter out people that aren't within a certain degree of trust. Right now adversaries attempt to warp what people believe by pushing them to make connections to more extreme elements, this would be less possible if the social network were built in such a way that would expose fake or low trust profiles. The web of trust would resemble Page Rank, more than modern day Facebook. For example, Bill Kristol may be trusted by people like Ezra Klein to such a high degree as to not just bring him within your bubble, but to be part of a social network feed that would provide a blend of opinions. I'm not saying this is easy to get right, but it's necessary if we want to have open platforms like Twitter to survive gamification by nation-states and brand marketers.
  - davidivadavid 9y ago
    I've had thoughts in that vein for a while, do you know of anyone/any company exploring them?
    - 3pt14159 9y ago
      None that are out of stealth mode. Also, nothing that I could personally recommend at this point.

beambot 9y ago

So... Which investments specifically?

blahshaw 9y ago

I think cyber security is going to be huge too, but not sure how to make a play on it, don't see any obvious winners in the security space. What approach do you take?

3pt14159 9y ago
If you're not in the position to angel invest I don't have anything top of mind to share. I think most of the stock market is overpriced, but Facebook is still probably a reasonable bet. If I knew the next Bitcoin I'd definitely have typed it out. Sometimes the answer is to just wait and see and let your thoughts kinda work through things. What I know for sure is that there are a lot of powerful people that found out how important cyber security is in the past couple years. Snowden, Clinton, Paradise Papers. The market will do its best to try to meet this need.
- blahshaw 9y ago
  And if I were in a position to angel invest?
  - 3pt14159 9y ago
    My email is in my profile.
czbond 9y ago
From a work perspective, I recall reading that in the next 10 years, 6 of 10 people on a development team will be security related. [Looked for the source, can't find it, due your own diligence]. 1.8 Million security jobs vacant by 2022. https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/07/global-cybersecurity-workforce-to-be-short-by-1-8-million-personnel-by-2022-up-20-on-2015/ https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/07/global-cybersecurity-work... The need for very seasoned professionals who have BOTH security and heavy development/business/architecture backgrounds will be a scarce thing.

noetic_techy 9y ago

--> Combination of webs of trust and machine learning to both shape tastes and politics and harden networks from their shaping. Can you elaborate on this with an example of a future scenario? Thinking about this is throwing me for a loop. Are you talking about some deeper level of web curation not yet achieved? People ever more entrenched in their own AI curated "bubbles"? "Harden networks from their shaping" Qwut?

3pt14159 9y ago
Imagine social networks where you couldn't just make 100 bots. Through some low friction mechanism the people that you trusted most would be identified to you as such and by extension the people they most trusted would be visually indicated to you. Settings would allow you to completely filter out people that aren't within a certain degree of trust. Right now adversaries attempt to warp what people believe by pushing them to make connections to more extreme elements, this would be less possible if the social network were built in such a way that would expose fake or low trust profiles. The web of trust would resemble Page Rank, more than modern day Facebook. For example, Bill Kristol may be trusted by people like Ezra Klein to such a high degree as to not just bring him within your bubble, but to be part of a social network feed that would provide a blend of opinions. I'm not saying this is easy to get right, but it's necessary if we want to have open platforms like Twitter to survive gamification by nation-states and brand marketers.
- davidivadavid 9y ago
  I've had thoughts in that vein for a while, do you know of anyone/any company exploring them?
  - 3pt14159 9y ago
    None that are out of stealth mode. Also, nothing that I could personally recommend at this point.