7 ms·

Ask HN: Bitcoin about to cross $10k. Still a skeptic?

12 points by obiefernandez 9y ago

T-A 9y ago
At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsworker. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
- latchkey 9y ago
  https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-...
taprun 9y ago
As John Maynard Keynes said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
muzani 9y ago
I'm very happy with the ROI I got but am cashing out on my initial investment. I'll stop being skeptical the day I can buy a burger with it.
- scalesolved 9y ago
  I don't own any Bitcoin nor have I ever but why would being a burger with it stop you being sceptical? I mean you cannot (at least to my knowledge) buy burgers with gold/ETFs/Stocks, doesn't the same apply to Bitcoin?
  - marcus_chang 9y ago
    > I mean you cannot (at least to my knowledge) buy burgers with gold/ETFs/Stocks, doesn't the same apply to Bitcoin? Gold is a store of value and ETFs/Stocks are investment vehicles. Bitcoin is designed to be used as a currency.
    - scalesolved 9y ago
      Is currency not a store of value?
      - marcus_chang 9y ago
        Not in the same way that gold is. Currencies can experience hyperinflation from increased supply (printing money), but until someone finds the philosopher's stone, gold has relatively stable supply (and subsequently - price).
        scalesolved 9y ago
        Interesting discussion :) Gold has a relatively stable supply now but back in history we've experienced several gold rushes that I imagine made prices turbulent. From my limited understanding of Bitcoin the supply is also going to be limited and the mining of coins will become harder and harder. Seems to fit more along the line of gold than a currency.
        deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
  - hkmurakami 9y ago
    You used to be able to buy burgers with gold.
    - AstralStorm 9y ago
      Actually in some places you still can buy burgers with raw copper and iron. And the metals are quite easy to exchange for any currency.
  - muzani 9y ago
    Because it is designed to be a currency. If it fails to be a currency, it's essentially a scam. Maybe a middle line would be digital currency, like buying stocks, gold, books online. It's a good sign that I can make international purchases now though.
- dobecker 9y ago
  at least in germany you can pay for your burger in btc if you order it online. For example on lieferando.de which is one of the biggest website for restaurant deliveries in germany
  - muzani 9y ago
    Faith in BTC restored.
- mamcx 9y ago
  You can buy street food, even in Colombia. http://www.eltiempo.com/colombia/otras-ciudades/vendedor-de-platanos-en-armenia-que-recibe-bitcoins-152186 http://www.eltiempo.com/colombia/otras-ciudades/vendedor-de-...
kaikai 9y ago
If anything, the rapidly increasing exchange rate makes me more of a skeptic.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
jono90 9y ago
I was never skeptical and more of an opportunist. 10 years from now I can say I participated in the flop/success that is bitcoin.
therealmarv 9y ago
I'll stop beeing sceptical when this feels like money and not like high risk gambling.
- AstralStorm 9y ago
  My own scepticism is fuelled by the fact if cryptocurrencies would disappear we'd lose nothing of value.
  - benguild 9y ago
    Yep.
  - srrge 9y ago
    Well the same could be said about fiat. Fiat has no intrinsic value. However it's very useful.
  - jb28 9y ago
    While people all over the world are becoming more conservative, and divided - there are a few movements or platforms that try to level the playing field for all. The internet started as one of those movements, and these words seem to echo that of the skeptics then. It's not just about the value of Bitcoin going #tothemoon Cryptocurrencies and blockchains now give us the opportunity*, infrastructure, and incentive/reward mechanisms to build the future platforms that will not discriminate, or manipulate us, but instead empower and elevate . I think such a movement, network, and infrastructure is something very valuable that we would lose if they disappear.
Shad0w59 9y ago
It is basically a quick Ponzi scheme.
- art4ur 9y ago
  That means you either don't know how bitcoin or a ponzi scheme work.
  - handbanana 9y ago
    or both
akashpaul 9y ago
Even if I had gotten in at Sept it would've been quite the return by the time it hits 10K by the end of 2017 or earlier.
kapauldo 9y ago
It still feels like a mostly speculation platform and not a transactional one.
laci27 9y ago
Especially now. If it looks like a bubble and behaves like a bubble, it's a bubble. No value is created at the rate BTC is rising. Besides, crypto currency in general is plagued with major problems, from security, to scalability.. it's not worth $500/BTC.
acconrad 9y ago
Bitcoin as a way for a few lucky folks to increase their net worth is certainly not something they are skeptical of. Bitcoin as a means of achieving it's original goal (i.e. a world currency) I'm still highly skeptical of. Why would I want to spend Bitcoin when I could be the next guy who spent BTC0.0001 on a pizza when it becomes worth $100k / coin? The fact that I have to entertain that idea means psychologically I won't treat this as currency. I treat USD and EUR as currency because I don't worry about day-to-day (or even really decade-to-decade) volatility of the currency. BTC has volatility by the _week_. Whether this giant experiment succeeds or not, I have a hard time believing it works as a currency specifically.
calciphus 9y ago
Yep. Maybe it's the hourly posts to HN about how great an opportunity it is. Maybe it's the constant need of every Bitcoin "investor" to talk about the price (not value). To me its just another way wealthy people increase their wealth and avoid paying taxes. No different then a bunch of hedge fund bros talking about using offshore accounts and fake charities to avoid paying taxes.

12 points by obiefernandez 9y ago

T-A 9y ago

At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsworker. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

latchkey 9y ago
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-...

taprun 9y ago

As John Maynard Keynes said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

muzani 9y ago

I'm very happy with the ROI I got but am cashing out on my initial investment. I'll stop being skeptical the day I can buy a burger with it.

scalesolved 9y ago
I don't own any Bitcoin nor have I ever but why would being a burger with it stop you being sceptical? I mean you cannot (at least to my knowledge) buy burgers with gold/ETFs/Stocks, doesn't the same apply to Bitcoin?
- marcus_chang 9y ago
  > I mean you cannot (at least to my knowledge) buy burgers with gold/ETFs/Stocks, doesn't the same apply to Bitcoin? Gold is a store of value and ETFs/Stocks are investment vehicles. Bitcoin is designed to be used as a currency.
  - scalesolved 9y ago
    Is currency not a store of value?
    - marcus_chang 9y ago
      Not in the same way that gold is. Currencies can experience hyperinflation from increased supply (printing money), but until someone finds the philosopher's stone, gold has relatively stable supply (and subsequently - price).
      - scalesolved 9y ago
        Interesting discussion :) Gold has a relatively stable supply now but back in history we've experienced several gold rushes that I imagine made prices turbulent. From my limited understanding of Bitcoin the supply is also going to be limited and the mining of coins will become harder and harder. Seems to fit more along the line of gold than a currency.
        deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
- hkmurakami 9y ago
  You used to be able to buy burgers with gold.
  - AstralStorm 9y ago
    Actually in some places you still can buy burgers with raw copper and iron. And the metals are quite easy to exchange for any currency.
- muzani 9y ago
  Because it is designed to be a currency. If it fails to be a currency, it's essentially a scam. Maybe a middle line would be digital currency, like buying stocks, gold, books online. It's a good sign that I can make international purchases now though.
dobecker 9y ago
at least in germany you can pay for your burger in btc if you order it online. For example on lieferando.de which is one of the biggest website for restaurant deliveries in germany
- muzani 9y ago
  Faith in BTC restored.
mamcx 9y ago
You can buy street food, even in Colombia. http://www.eltiempo.com/colombia/otras-ciudades/vendedor-de-platanos-en-armenia-que-recibe-bitcoins-152186 http://www.eltiempo.com/colombia/otras-ciudades/vendedor-de-...

kaikai 9y ago

If anything, the rapidly increasing exchange rate makes me more of a skeptic.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

jono90 9y ago

I was never skeptical and more of an opportunist. 10 years from now I can say I participated in the flop/success that is bitcoin.

therealmarv 9y ago

I'll stop beeing sceptical when this feels like money and not like high risk gambling.

AstralStorm 9y ago
My own scepticism is fuelled by the fact if cryptocurrencies would disappear we'd lose nothing of value.
- benguild 9y ago
  Yep.
- srrge 9y ago
  Well the same could be said about fiat. Fiat has no intrinsic value. However it's very useful.
- jb28 9y ago
  While people all over the world are becoming more conservative, and divided - there are a few movements or platforms that try to level the playing field for all. The internet started as one of those movements, and these words seem to echo that of the skeptics then. It's not just about the value of Bitcoin going #tothemoon Cryptocurrencies and blockchains now give us the opportunity*, infrastructure, and incentive/reward mechanisms to build the future platforms that will not discriminate, or manipulate us, but instead empower and elevate . I think such a movement, network, and infrastructure is something very valuable that we would lose if they disappear.

Shad0w59 9y ago

It is basically a quick Ponzi scheme.

art4ur 9y ago
That means you either don't know how bitcoin or a ponzi scheme work.
- handbanana 9y ago
  or both

akashpaul 9y ago

Even if I had gotten in at Sept it would've been quite the return by the time it hits 10K by the end of 2017 or earlier.

kapauldo 9y ago

It still feels like a mostly speculation platform and not a transactional one.

laci27 9y ago

Especially now. If it looks like a bubble and behaves like a bubble, it's a bubble. No value is created at the rate BTC is rising. Besides, crypto currency in general is plagued with major problems, from security, to scalability.. it's not worth $500/BTC.

acconrad 9y ago

Bitcoin as a way for a few lucky folks to increase their net worth is certainly not something they are skeptical of. Bitcoin as a means of achieving it's original goal (i.e. a world currency) I'm still highly skeptical of. Why would I want to spend Bitcoin when I could be the next guy who spent BTC0.0001 on a pizza when it becomes worth $100k / coin? The fact that I have to entertain that idea means psychologically I won't treat this as currency. I treat USD and EUR as currency because I don't worry about day-to-day (or even really decade-to-decade) volatility of the currency. BTC has volatility by the _week_. Whether this giant experiment succeeds or not, I have a hard time believing it works as a currency specifically.

calciphus 9y ago

Yep. Maybe it's the hourly posts to HN about how great an opportunity it is. Maybe it's the constant need of every Bitcoin "investor" to talk about the price (not value). To me its just another way wealthy people increase their wealth and avoid paying taxes. No different then a bunch of hedge fund bros talking about using offshore accounts and fake charities to avoid paying taxes.