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Could this be the begining of the end for Facebook? Is 2017 for Facebook what 2009 was for BlackBerry and Nokia (when they were still getting record profits and

by mtgx 9y ago

Could this be the begining of the end for Facebook? Is 2017 for Facebook what 2009 was for BlackBerry and Nokia (when they were still getting record profits and revenues - they were already toast, they just didn't know it yet)? https://www.emarketer.com/content/snapchat-snags-second-place-in-social-media-stickiness https://www.emarketer.com/content/snapchat-snags-second-plac... The significant drop in engagement may also be why Facebook is dumping the media sites from the news (ha!) feed like a hot potato. Although that was a very Facebook thing to do, it still seemed a little desperate and like it was happening sooner than expected.

slouch 9y ago
What is a better source of local events than facebook?
- stevenwoo 9y ago
  Nextdoor is much better for me, but most of my Facebook friends live farther than 15 miles from me.
  - slouch 9y ago
    I will look into it, but I would bet that zero of the local bands I regularly go see are putting their gigs on Nextdoor. I wonder if they scrape events from facebook or elsewhere.
    - stevenwoo 9y ago
      It's probably no good for your use case, I live in a boring suburban neighborhood and most of the news is about stuff happening on my block and across the street where downtown is in my small town. Where do the bands otherwise advertise? It seems like this is a missed (but small market) opportunity.
      - slouch 9y ago
        bandsintown & songkick, but they're a bit of an echo chamber because mostly other musicians use them edit: forgot reverbnation
      - kobeya 9y ago
        The problem (and advantage of) Nextdoor is that it is hyper-local. It's great for anyone in an HOA or apartment complex or whatever. It really fills a niche there. However I wish there was more to fill the spectrum between Nextdoor, which is really just a communication tool for people that live within shouting distance of each other (there's a standup routine in there somewhere..) and Facebook, which trends too far towards the national and global. I wish I could close my facebook account, but it's essential for asynchronously keeping in contact with friends living around the globe now (I grew up in Silicon Valley, so my friend set in particular is rather global since everyone not in tech or other high paying professional jobs have been forced out of the housing market and moved elsewhere). What about at the level of my city, county, state & region? I really wish there were more local options. I also wish there were better tools for building social networks around specific hobbies, industries, or interests. Where are the clubs of social networks? This requires more than just a "page" with a wall and like button. The anonymous and cancerous Reddit certainly isn't the answer either.
  - tedmiston 9y ago
    Where I live, Nextdoor is pretty much just old people complaining about things.
    - sjg007 9y ago
      My town's Facebook group is the same way.
  - icantdrive55 9y ago
    Nextdoor is popular. It reminded me of a Sewing Circle though. A lot of gossip, and griping. That said, they take membership at bit too serious for my tastes. There's no way I'm going to give them my phone number. FB is so big, it's easy to join under a pseudonym.
- lallysingh 9y ago
  Facebook was never a good source of local events for me.
  - slouch 9y ago
    So, there must be a better source of local events in your life. Care to share?
    - MrMid 9y ago
      Not OP, but for me posters and word of mouth are definitely a better source.
    - cuckcuckspruce 9y ago
      Meetup has been good for me as well as Craigslist (if a bit noisy).
- Jare 9y ago
  Friends. If friends are on Facebook then FB works, but if friends leave then FB may become a pretty expensive board.
  - slouch 9y ago
    My friends aren't creating event invites on facebook, they're sharing events created by the hosts. I think what you're saying is, "When the bands and bars holding beer events follow my friends off facebook..."
    - Jare 9y ago
      My friends sometimes make events show on my FB either by sharing or just by signing up. But most of the time the event is textually mentioned in a post ("hey Combichrist are coming" or whatever), not via an actual FB event. As some of my social groups have moved to Whatsapp (or Slack, etc), that's where this type of action is moving too. I'm on the older side of the spectrum so that probably has some effect.
- aldarn 9y ago
  Depends where you live, but if you're in the UK then check out REVL (https://revl.world https://revl.world). They have a very wide and deep listing of events from small local events (think your local pub) to large nationwide events (such as gigs, festivals). The website is good but the app offers a much more comprehensive experience. Disclaimer: I am affiliated with REVL.
agumonkey 9y ago
French news today said time spend on (or maybe visit count, don't remember) FB dropped by 43%. I wouldn't give much value to the digits, but it seems it's not attractive anymore at the least.
zitterbewegung 9y ago
Depends on if there is an AdTech bubble or not. I’m starting to lean yes . The only way forward for Facebook is to start eating at TV advertisements . If they can’t do that I don’t see where their growth will come from.
- anindha 9y ago
  They are working on that. As more people stream TV, it will be easier for Facebook to enter this market.
joe_the_user 9y ago
I don't think there are any sites that come anywhere near Facebook's niche - other sites allow either insubstantial contact or larger public presence or hyper-local contact or etc. Obviously, social networking been defined by companies mostly not aiming to replace Facebook since Google's G+ debacle. The chart you link to shows Facebook declining from ~30 mins of usage to ~20 mins. Snapchat increased from 3 to 4. So it's getting closer but it seems unlikely to catch-up. If anything, all this seems more less engagement in social media. Maybe people somehow are doing more "in real life" or maybe people are just generally less engaged with each other.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
eighthnate 9y ago
> Is 2017 for Facebook what 2009 was for BlackBerry and Nokia (when they were still getting record profits and revenues - they were already toast, they just didn't know it yet)? The only way the comparison works is if 2009's Blackberry or Nokia owned Apple and the Android OS platform. Not only does facebook own the facebook social media platform, they own Instagram and WhatsApp, two of the world's largest and fastest growing tech platforms. Not to mention if Blackberry had Facebook's ungodly 50% operating margin making it arguably the most profitable large company in the world. In 2009, blackberry was losing money and losing marketshare. 2017 Facebook is growing in all their platforms - facebook, instagram and whatsapp.

by mtgx 9y ago

slouch 9y ago

What is a better source of local events than facebook?

stevenwoo 9y ago
Nextdoor is much better for me, but most of my Facebook friends live farther than 15 miles from me.
- slouch 9y ago
  I will look into it, but I would bet that zero of the local bands I regularly go see are putting their gigs on Nextdoor. I wonder if they scrape events from facebook or elsewhere.
  - stevenwoo 9y ago
    It's probably no good for your use case, I live in a boring suburban neighborhood and most of the news is about stuff happening on my block and across the street where downtown is in my small town. Where do the bands otherwise advertise? It seems like this is a missed (but small market) opportunity.
    - slouch 9y ago
      bandsintown & songkick, but they're a bit of an echo chamber because mostly other musicians use them edit: forgot reverbnation
    - kobeya 9y ago
      The problem (and advantage of) Nextdoor is that it is hyper-local. It's great for anyone in an HOA or apartment complex or whatever. It really fills a niche there. However I wish there was more to fill the spectrum between Nextdoor, which is really just a communication tool for people that live within shouting distance of each other (there's a standup routine in there somewhere..) and Facebook, which trends too far towards the national and global. I wish I could close my facebook account, but it's essential for asynchronously keeping in contact with friends living around the globe now (I grew up in Silicon Valley, so my friend set in particular is rather global since everyone not in tech or other high paying professional jobs have been forced out of the housing market and moved elsewhere). What about at the level of my city, county, state & region? I really wish there were more local options. I also wish there were better tools for building social networks around specific hobbies, industries, or interests. Where are the clubs of social networks? This requires more than just a "page" with a wall and like button. The anonymous and cancerous Reddit certainly isn't the answer either.
- tedmiston 9y ago
  Where I live, Nextdoor is pretty much just old people complaining about things.
  - sjg007 9y ago
    My town's Facebook group is the same way.
- icantdrive55 9y ago
  Nextdoor is popular. It reminded me of a Sewing Circle though. A lot of gossip, and griping. That said, they take membership at bit too serious for my tastes. There's no way I'm going to give them my phone number. FB is so big, it's easy to join under a pseudonym.
lallysingh 9y ago
Facebook was never a good source of local events for me.
- slouch 9y ago
  So, there must be a better source of local events in your life. Care to share?
  - MrMid 9y ago
    Not OP, but for me posters and word of mouth are definitely a better source.
  - cuckcuckspruce 9y ago
    Meetup has been good for me as well as Craigslist (if a bit noisy).
Jare 9y ago
Friends. If friends are on Facebook then FB works, but if friends leave then FB may become a pretty expensive board.
- slouch 9y ago
  My friends aren't creating event invites on facebook, they're sharing events created by the hosts. I think what you're saying is, "When the bands and bars holding beer events follow my friends off facebook..."
  - Jare 9y ago
    My friends sometimes make events show on my FB either by sharing or just by signing up. But most of the time the event is textually mentioned in a post ("hey Combichrist are coming" or whatever), not via an actual FB event. As some of my social groups have moved to Whatsapp (or Slack, etc), that's where this type of action is moving too. I'm on the older side of the spectrum so that probably has some effect.
aldarn 9y ago
Depends where you live, but if you're in the UK then check out REVL (https://revl.world https://revl.world). They have a very wide and deep listing of events from small local events (think your local pub) to large nationwide events (such as gigs, festivals). The website is good but the app offers a much more comprehensive experience. Disclaimer: I am affiliated with REVL.

agumonkey 9y ago

French news today said time spend on (or maybe visit count, don't remember) FB dropped by 43%. I wouldn't give much value to the digits, but it seems it's not attractive anymore at the least.

zitterbewegung 9y ago

Depends on if there is an AdTech bubble or not. I’m starting to lean yes . The only way forward for Facebook is to start eating at TV advertisements . If they can’t do that I don’t see where their growth will come from.

anindha 9y ago
They are working on that. As more people stream TV, it will be easier for Facebook to enter this market.

joe_the_user 9y ago

I don't think there are any sites that come anywhere near Facebook's niche - other sites allow either insubstantial contact or larger public presence or hyper-local contact or etc. Obviously, social networking been defined by companies mostly not aiming to replace Facebook since Google's G+ debacle. The chart you link to shows Facebook declining from ~30 mins of usage to ~20 mins. Snapchat increased from 3 to 4. So it's getting closer but it seems unlikely to catch-up. If anything, all this seems more less engagement in social media. Maybe people somehow are doing more "in real life" or maybe people are just generally less engaged with each other.

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

eighthnate 9y ago

> Is 2017 for Facebook what 2009 was for BlackBerry and Nokia (when they were still getting record profits and revenues - they were already toast, they just didn't know it yet)? The only way the comparison works is if 2009's Blackberry or Nokia owned Apple and the Android OS platform. Not only does facebook own the facebook social media platform, they own Instagram and WhatsApp, two of the world's largest and fastest growing tech platforms. Not to mention if Blackberry had Facebook's ungodly 50% operating margin making it arguably the most profitable large company in the world. In 2009, blackberry was losing money and losing marketshare. 2017 Facebook is growing in all their platforms - facebook, instagram and whatsapp.