4 ms·

I am not convinced self driving cars will ever be a thing we see in our lifetimes that just drive around the city unmanned. Sure, I can see a fully custom Uber

I am not convinced self driving cars will ever be a thing we see in our lifetimes that just drive around the city unmanned. Sure, I can see a fully custom Uber navigational system built in with systems that make getting passengers and dropping them off much more predictable. However, what should be relatively simple as that fails to address the human component. 1. Some people like talking to a driver, it's one of those small interactions that make getting from point A to point B an experience. Some people don't and that's fine too, not arguing against that. 2. People left alone will be much less careful, graffiti, spillage, throwing-up, drug deals, etc. Fully expect these to become little crime bubbles. 3. Not all cars will be fully utilized all day long, so what is a car sitting around unmanned? Will the insurance to cover vandalism and having the vehicle repaired raise higher than the value of paying someone to sit in the car?

hawski 9y ago
Drug deals? You first have to be authorized - you have to give some payment information. So you are mostly easily identified. Then it will probably be under surveillance.
- lykr0n 9y ago
  I believe Car2go had an issue with this. Identity theft is alive and well, and it's hard to know if the person who is in the car is the same who signed up for the account.
  - ceejayoz 9y ago
    So they'll add some sort of biometric - face / iris / thumb. People have better places to do drug deals than a car that can lock the doors and speed to the local police precinct (with photographic/video evidence sent in advance, even!) when it detects misbehavior.
jamiequint 9y ago
1. The vast majority of people don't want getting to point A to point B to be an experience, they want it to happen as quickly and conveniently as possible for a good price. This isn't going to be any sort of real barrier to adoption especially when people have the option to pay $15 for a manned car with a driver or $3 for one that is self-driving. 2. Cameras and you sign an agreement on signup that you're liable for the behavior of any passengers on your trip. Hotels are also private spaces, they don't seem to have a problem with graffiti, rooms getting destroyed, etc. To the extent they do it's not an existential problem and is covered by the fact that they have your ID and Credit Card on file. 3. Many hundreds of thousands of people park their cars overnight in parking garages or on streets. Nobody pays people to sit inside inside of their cars overnight as far as I know.
- collyw 9y ago
  3: Those people haven't had their job taken by a self driving car. There is a very real incentive for these cars to be targeted.
- ghaff 9y ago
  Yeah. It's reasonable to be skeptical about the timeframe for fully-autonomous general purpose vehicles. IMO, the last 10 percent (or whatever) is tougher than a lot of people are assuming. Some of the assumptions about the economics of the vehicles are also overly optimistic. That said, if people can get driven around for a reasonable price--either in their own vehicle or one they hail through an app--many people will forgo driving themselves.
ceejayoz 9y ago
We've already seen how #1 goes with ATMs replacing bank tellers. Sure, some folks liked banking with a human, but they're largely replaced. #2 you deal with by cameras in the car. You know who's in it, and you have a credit card to fine them for any clean-up required. Taxis/Ubers already have to deal with more puke than private cars. I wouldn't want to do a drug deal in a car that could automatically deliver me at a police precinct... #3 is already the case with the millions of parked cars on city streets. Why would self-driving cars be more of a target than those existing unmanned cars?
- collyw 9y ago
  #3 because they have taken someones job.
  - ceejayoz 9y ago
    It's going to take a special kind of stupid to vandalize a car with a bunch of cameras, radars, and a few dozen "coworkers" along your escape route.
TulliusCicero 9y ago
> 1. Some people like talking to a driver, it's one of those small interactions that make getting from point A to point B an experience. Some people don't and that's fine too, not arguing against that. Not many are going to care enough to pay a significant premium though. > 2. People left alone will be much less careful, graffiti, spillage, throwing-up, drug deals, etc. Fully expect these to become little crime bubbles. Expect self-driving cars to have surveillance systems and to require identification before you can hail one. If you're caught doing a drug deal, don't expect that company to ever let you use their service again. > 3. Not all cars will be fully utilized all day long, so what is a car sitting around unmanned? Park itself, probably. > Will the insurance to cover vandalism and having the vehicle repaired raise higher than the value of paying someone to sit in the car? No.
stanmancan 9y ago
The whole vandalism/making a mess thing is entirely possible to solve by holding the passenger accountable. I'd assume the cars would all have camera's inside them. The flow could be as simple as: 1) I use an app to request a ride 2) Car pulls up 3) Car does a facial recognition scan as I approach the car and know's it's me, unlocking the door. It know's it's me because I also had to do a facial recognition scan when I set up the app. 4) Camera's can monitor the cleanlyness of the car. If it detects a mess when I leave the vehicle then the car gets sent to the depot for a cleaning. 4.a) Car doesn't detect it's dirty, but the next passenger to get picked up notices it's a mess and can notify them via the app. This will prompt a new car to come for the passenger and the original vehicle gets sent to the depot for cleaning 5) The vehicle gets inspected and cleaned and whoever was responsible gets notifed of the cleaning fee and their credit card is billed automatically (which would be part of the agreement when using the service) edit: formatting
- ams6110 9y ago
  As simple as...
  - stanmancan 9y ago
    Good point. When I said "simply" it was more the fact that all this technology already exists. If you can fit facial ID scanners on a phone, surely you can on a self-driving car. And ff you know the clean state of the car, it's not very difficult technically to detect if anything was left in the car. This could even set a flag for some one to remotely check the camera to see if it's a false alarm. Again -- not very difficult on a technical standpoint. However, even bypassing this theoretical "auto-dirty-detector" you could soley rely on the next rider to mark the vehicle as unsanitary which would dispatch them a new ride, while the old one gets dispatched back to the depot for cleaning.
ilaksh 9y ago
Well, it did happen in our lifetime already. Waymo cars are driving beta customers around in Phoenix without anyone in the driving seat. There is still an employee in the back seat but within a few months they will not be in there at all. So looks like your estimate was incorrect by many decades.

hawski 9y ago

Drug deals? You first have to be authorized - you have to give some payment information. So you are mostly easily identified. Then it will probably be under surveillance.

lykr0n 9y ago
I believe Car2go had an issue with this. Identity theft is alive and well, and it's hard to know if the person who is in the car is the same who signed up for the account.
- ceejayoz 9y ago
  So they'll add some sort of biometric - face / iris / thumb. People have better places to do drug deals than a car that can lock the doors and speed to the local police precinct (with photographic/video evidence sent in advance, even!) when it detects misbehavior.

jamiequint 9y ago

1. The vast majority of people don't want getting to point A to point B to be an experience, they want it to happen as quickly and conveniently as possible for a good price. This isn't going to be any sort of real barrier to adoption especially when people have the option to pay $15 for a manned car with a driver or $3 for one that is self-driving. 2. Cameras and you sign an agreement on signup that you're liable for the behavior of any passengers on your trip. Hotels are also private spaces, they don't seem to have a problem with graffiti, rooms getting destroyed, etc. To the extent they do it's not an existential problem and is covered by the fact that they have your ID and Credit Card on file. 3. Many hundreds of thousands of people park their cars overnight in parking garages or on streets. Nobody pays people to sit inside inside of their cars overnight as far as I know.

collyw 9y ago
3: Those people haven't had their job taken by a self driving car. There is a very real incentive for these cars to be targeted.
ghaff 9y ago
Yeah. It's reasonable to be skeptical about the timeframe for fully-autonomous general purpose vehicles. IMO, the last 10 percent (or whatever) is tougher than a lot of people are assuming. Some of the assumptions about the economics of the vehicles are also overly optimistic. That said, if people can get driven around for a reasonable price--either in their own vehicle or one they hail through an app--many people will forgo driving themselves.

ceejayoz 9y ago

We've already seen how #1 goes with ATMs replacing bank tellers. Sure, some folks liked banking with a human, but they're largely replaced. #2 you deal with by cameras in the car. You know who's in it, and you have a credit card to fine them for any clean-up required. Taxis/Ubers already have to deal with more puke than private cars. I wouldn't want to do a drug deal in a car that could automatically deliver me at a police precinct... #3 is already the case with the millions of parked cars on city streets. Why would self-driving cars be more of a target than those existing unmanned cars?

collyw 9y ago
#3 because they have taken someones job.
- ceejayoz 9y ago
  It's going to take a special kind of stupid to vandalize a car with a bunch of cameras, radars, and a few dozen "coworkers" along your escape route.

TulliusCicero 9y ago

> 1. Some people like talking to a driver, it's one of those small interactions that make getting from point A to point B an experience. Some people don't and that's fine too, not arguing against that. Not many are going to care enough to pay a significant premium though. > 2. People left alone will be much less careful, graffiti, spillage, throwing-up, drug deals, etc. Fully expect these to become little crime bubbles. Expect self-driving cars to have surveillance systems and to require identification before you can hail one. If you're caught doing a drug deal, don't expect that company to ever let you use their service again. > 3. Not all cars will be fully utilized all day long, so what is a car sitting around unmanned? Park itself, probably. > Will the insurance to cover vandalism and having the vehicle repaired raise higher than the value of paying someone to sit in the car? No.

stanmancan 9y ago

The whole vandalism/making a mess thing is entirely possible to solve by holding the passenger accountable. I'd assume the cars would all have camera's inside them. The flow could be as simple as: 1) I use an app to request a ride 2) Car pulls up 3) Car does a facial recognition scan as I approach the car and know's it's me, unlocking the door. It know's it's me because I also had to do a facial recognition scan when I set up the app. 4) Camera's can monitor the cleanlyness of the car. If it detects a mess when I leave the vehicle then the car gets sent to the depot for a cleaning. 4.a) Car doesn't detect it's dirty, but the next passenger to get picked up notices it's a mess and can notify them via the app. This will prompt a new car to come for the passenger and the original vehicle gets sent to the depot for cleaning 5) The vehicle gets inspected and cleaned and whoever was responsible gets notifed of the cleaning fee and their credit card is billed automatically (which would be part of the agreement when using the service) edit: formatting

ams6110 9y ago
As simple as...
- stanmancan 9y ago
  Good point. When I said "simply" it was more the fact that all this technology already exists. If you can fit facial ID scanners on a phone, surely you can on a self-driving car. And ff you know the clean state of the car, it's not very difficult technically to detect if anything was left in the car. This could even set a flag for some one to remotely check the camera to see if it's a false alarm. Again -- not very difficult on a technical standpoint. However, even bypassing this theoretical "auto-dirty-detector" you could soley rely on the next rider to mark the vehicle as unsanitary which would dispatch them a new ride, while the old one gets dispatched back to the depot for cleaning.

ilaksh 9y ago

Well, it did happen in our lifetime already. Waymo cars are driving beta customers around in Phoenix without anyone in the driving seat. There is still an employee in the back seat but within a few months they will not be in there at all. So looks like your estimate was incorrect by many decades.