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I'm thinking what this means to gas car makers. Wave 1: "It's all about legacy and prestige, not speed/acceleration". Wave 2: "The track handling isn't all th

I'm thinking what this means to gas car makers. Wave 1: "It's all about legacy and prestige, not speed/acceleration". Wave 2: "The track handling isn't all that good, how can drivers take that corner at full power without losing traction". Wave 3: "Alright, we will go electric too".

alexanderstears 9y ago
If this thing has torque vectoring and does a 9 second 1/4 mile, it's going to drop at wave 2. But wave 3 is already here - a lot of smaller companies are talking about making their own electric vehicles. If batteries become commodities, it's going to reduce the R&D cost of making a road legal car by an order of magnitude. We're just waiting on the batteries.
- bonestamp2 9y ago
  I wonder if GM (or Tesla) will sell crate batteries the way they sell crate engines? Everyone will be drooling over the next big battery they release the way motor heads drool over crate engines. They'll need a reasonably standard size/configuration to be successful, and they could sell the motor, power management and PCM to go with it.
  - kmonsen 9y ago
    GM doesn't make batteries, the Bolt is almost a LG car.
    - makomk 9y ago
      GM make batteries in much the same sense that Tesla do - the cells are bought in from LG, but the battery engineering, testing and integration work is done in-house. (Maybe even more so than Tesla's given their explanation for the Model 3 delay.) I believe the motor is simply bought in from LG though.
  - alexanderstears 9y ago
    They could, but they're functionally middlemen for Panasonic, LG, and Samsung (which are the 3 big EV battery manufacturers). I'm tangentially involved with hot rodders, and a lot of them have spent some time thinking about adding some amount of electrification to their vehicles. Hot rods usually have thermal management problems for their engines and they run the risk of overheating when they're crusing around car shows / parades. Some folks think a small electric motor and battery would be a good way for them to drive short distances slowly and save the engine for higher torque demands.
- marvin 9y ago
  High-end battery packs will not be a commodity for at least the next few years. The continuing (decade-long+) trend of improving Li-ion battery cells and Tesla's demonstration that you can significantly improve pack performance by improving the packaging, clearly indicates that we aren't yet near the point where battery packs are a mature discipline. We'll probably get there at some point, once diminishing returns starts setting in. And lots of industries that aren't interested in developing battery packs (e.g. general aviation, construction, etc.), would have a sea change if high-performance battery packs were easily available. So I think the incentive to start a company in the space is good. But for the next few years, I think battery pack design will still advance very rapidly and hence be left to the industries that are massively capital intensive and where the best battery packs are an obvious competitive advantage. It's a super exciting development, and I can't wait to see what the future brings in this regard.
onion2k 9y ago
Volvo have already announced their lineup will all be electric by 2022.
- tomseldon 9y ago
  A few places have reported this, but it's slightly misleading as what they've actually said is they'll stop making "gas only" cars by that date. So, a mix of hybrid or all electric. That might have been what you meant, but just pointing out that it's not necessarily "all electric".
  - onion2k 9y ago
    That is what I meant but it's good to have clarification for people who might have misunderstood. Cheers.
kirse 9y ago
Gas will always have sound. The growl of an Aston Martin V12 on startup, or a Lexus LFA screaming through a tunnel, or the flat-plane V8 burble from a Mustang GT350. EM cars only have a dull whine the faster they go. Motorheads are secretly all musicians who happen to love driving. The best combination is ultimately both though, hybrid systems are already used quite frequently in everything from LMP1 WEC racers to modern hypercars.
- ygra 9y ago
  Car makers employ sound engineers for that very purpose ;) Although I seem to recall that many cars bought for sound already play synthesized motor noise through the speakers, simply because if the shift to smaller, better performing engines means that they don't have the same sound anymore anyway.
- ajuc 9y ago
  Put speakers in there. Many nonelectric sports cars already use them to "enhance" the sound.
- jacobush 9y ago
  I am sure you can engineer an electric motor to sound very enticing. Even without resorting to speakers. As a kid, wouldn’t you have wanted your family station wagon to sound a little more Star Wars?
- audunw 9y ago
  The thing is that sound is associated with speed because a bigger/stronger engine is usually louder. Electrics will break that association. Or it will create a new expectation about what a fast car sounds like. Because from now on, they will always be faster than ICE vehicles. I think there will be a niche of people buying ICE cars for their loud sound, just as there are people who buy the loudest possible motorcycles even though they're not very fast. But I think this will be a niche, and they will probably be considered obnoxious people. I think we'll also see more sound engineering in EVs. They'll perhaps get a more satisfying sound, but will still be quiet.
  - 9y ago
Devthrowaway80 9y ago
Porsche has already pulled out of WEC (Le Mans, Rolex 24 Hours) in favour of Formula E and is planning to release a electric vehicle by 2019. My bet is that they're going to get an electric performance vehicle on the road way before Tesla. Moreover, what does this mean to Tesla? Competitors with decades of manufacturing experience cranking out reliable, fast electric vehicles with likely better build quality might pose an interesting problem.
- martin_bech 9y ago
  I dont think it will before Tesla. The Porsche Mission E which is sceduled for 2019, is slower than a Tesla Model S P100D.
  - Devthrowaway80 9y ago
    You may very well be right. The Mission E is closer to a Panamera than a 911. Regardless, very interesting to watch the competition heat up.
scott_karana 9y ago
Wave 3 requires lighter, denser, cheaper batteries that we haven't achieved yet.

alexanderstears 9y ago

If this thing has torque vectoring and does a 9 second 1/4 mile, it's going to drop at wave 2. But wave 3 is already here - a lot of smaller companies are talking about making their own electric vehicles. If batteries become commodities, it's going to reduce the R&D cost of making a road legal car by an order of magnitude. We're just waiting on the batteries.

bonestamp2 9y ago
I wonder if GM (or Tesla) will sell crate batteries the way they sell crate engines? Everyone will be drooling over the next big battery they release the way motor heads drool over crate engines. They'll need a reasonably standard size/configuration to be successful, and they could sell the motor, power management and PCM to go with it.
- kmonsen 9y ago
  GM doesn't make batteries, the Bolt is almost a LG car.
  - makomk 9y ago
    GM make batteries in much the same sense that Tesla do - the cells are bought in from LG, but the battery engineering, testing and integration work is done in-house. (Maybe even more so than Tesla's given their explanation for the Model 3 delay.) I believe the motor is simply bought in from LG though.
- alexanderstears 9y ago
  They could, but they're functionally middlemen for Panasonic, LG, and Samsung (which are the 3 big EV battery manufacturers). I'm tangentially involved with hot rodders, and a lot of them have spent some time thinking about adding some amount of electrification to their vehicles. Hot rods usually have thermal management problems for their engines and they run the risk of overheating when they're crusing around car shows / parades. Some folks think a small electric motor and battery would be a good way for them to drive short distances slowly and save the engine for higher torque demands.
marvin 9y ago
High-end battery packs will not be a commodity for at least the next few years. The continuing (decade-long+) trend of improving Li-ion battery cells and Tesla's demonstration that you can significantly improve pack performance by improving the packaging, clearly indicates that we aren't yet near the point where battery packs are a mature discipline. We'll probably get there at some point, once diminishing returns starts setting in. And lots of industries that aren't interested in developing battery packs (e.g. general aviation, construction, etc.), would have a sea change if high-performance battery packs were easily available. So I think the incentive to start a company in the space is good. But for the next few years, I think battery pack design will still advance very rapidly and hence be left to the industries that are massively capital intensive and where the best battery packs are an obvious competitive advantage. It's a super exciting development, and I can't wait to see what the future brings in this regard.

onion2k 9y ago

Volvo have already announced their lineup will all be electric by 2022.

tomseldon 9y ago
A few places have reported this, but it's slightly misleading as what they've actually said is they'll stop making "gas only" cars by that date. So, a mix of hybrid or all electric. That might have been what you meant, but just pointing out that it's not necessarily "all electric".
- onion2k 9y ago
  That is what I meant but it's good to have clarification for people who might have misunderstood. Cheers.

kirse 9y ago

Gas will always have sound. The growl of an Aston Martin V12 on startup, or a Lexus LFA screaming through a tunnel, or the flat-plane V8 burble from a Mustang GT350. EM cars only have a dull whine the faster they go. Motorheads are secretly all musicians who happen to love driving. The best combination is ultimately both though, hybrid systems are already used quite frequently in everything from LMP1 WEC racers to modern hypercars.

ygra 9y ago
Car makers employ sound engineers for that very purpose ;) Although I seem to recall that many cars bought for sound already play synthesized motor noise through the speakers, simply because if the shift to smaller, better performing engines means that they don't have the same sound anymore anyway.
ajuc 9y ago
Put speakers in there. Many nonelectric sports cars already use them to "enhance" the sound.
jacobush 9y ago
I am sure you can engineer an electric motor to sound very enticing. Even without resorting to speakers. As a kid, wouldn’t you have wanted your family station wagon to sound a little more Star Wars?
audunw 9y ago
The thing is that sound is associated with speed because a bigger/stronger engine is usually louder. Electrics will break that association. Or it will create a new expectation about what a fast car sounds like. Because from now on, they will always be faster than ICE vehicles. I think there will be a niche of people buying ICE cars for their loud sound, just as there are people who buy the loudest possible motorcycles even though they're not very fast. But I think this will be a niche, and they will probably be considered obnoxious people. I think we'll also see more sound engineering in EVs. They'll perhaps get a more satisfying sound, but will still be quiet.
- 9y ago

Devthrowaway80 9y ago

Porsche has already pulled out of WEC (Le Mans, Rolex 24 Hours) in favour of Formula E and is planning to release a electric vehicle by 2019. My bet is that they're going to get an electric performance vehicle on the road way before Tesla. Moreover, what does this mean to Tesla? Competitors with decades of manufacturing experience cranking out reliable, fast electric vehicles with likely better build quality might pose an interesting problem.

martin_bech 9y ago
I dont think it will before Tesla. The Porsche Mission E which is sceduled for 2019, is slower than a Tesla Model S P100D.
- Devthrowaway80 9y ago
  You may very well be right. The Mission E is closer to a Panamera than a 911. Regardless, very interesting to watch the competition heat up.

scott_karana 9y ago

Wave 3 requires lighter, denser, cheaper batteries that we haven't achieved yet.