6 ms·

Number 1 is especially key, last 2 years US businesses have pulled out of China a lot because of really really sketch actions by the Chinese government. Doesn't

Number 1 is especially key, last 2 years US businesses have pulled out of China a lot because of really really sketch actions by the Chinese government. Doesn't hurt to use the totalitarian argument either, but mainly they are losing money. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup sold their stakes last year as well. China will likely start opening up more because Western companies aren't as naive anymore and short term profits for long term losses aren't much of an option anymore now that Chinese companies are well developed in all the tech and economies of scale.

gumby 9y ago
> China will likely start opening up more because Western companies aren't as naive anymore and short term profits for long term losses aren't much of an option anymore now that Chinese companies are well developed in all the tech and economies of scale. Or: China will build local champions who can grow inside a protected region and then, once they have their playbook down and anfat balance sheet, they can go out and buy market share in other regions.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  Without having to deal with international competition, it’s doubtful the local champions can do much outside of the mainland. It’s like how wechat is the biggest thing inside china, but also missing everywhere abroad outside of the Chinese tourist sector.
  - nolok 9y ago
    Then again, Huwai may only be the tip of the iceberg.
jorblumesea 9y ago
I mean, the game they play is really hard to fight against. It usually goes something like this: * Attract western businesses to make investments based on various capital incentives. You are a free market, after all. * Once they are established and comfortable, start imposing restrictions, stealing IP and undercutting foreign companies. Make life increasingly difficult, except for those companies which you really need to stay in the country (Apple etc). * Eventually drive out foreign business because some domestic company has stolen the tech, gotten the market share and is willing to play back with the govt Why play that game? You can't win. Why anyone invests anything other than manufacturing in China is beyond me. If your entire product can be stolen via a USB drive (source code, proprietary manufacturing processes, IP in general) stay far, far away from Chinese businesses or China. They are playing to win in a very serious way.
- brianwawok 9y ago
  > Why play that game? You can't win. 1 billion people to buy your stuff is pretty tempting!!! If you are a CEO with 10 million shares of stock in BigCo.. and profits are going up like 1% a year.. why not roll the dice with China? If it works for a year, you make a bunch of money and cash out. If not, you don't "lose" anything.
  - wahern 9y ago
    Yeah, the CEOs who enter the Chinese market are long gone when the company pulls back. I remember a conversation I had in the late 1990s with the owner of an Indian textiles company (father of a friend). He said Western companies investing in China were idiotic. He was upset because Chinese mills were selling textiles for cheaper than the raw inputs. His point was that anybody who thinks they can "compete" in such a market is stupid. The Chinese government (buoyed by dumb Western money) can support their producers for longer than any non-Chinese company can stay solvent. That will remain true for the foreseeable future. The only winning strategy is to use this state of affairs to your advantage, which mostly means exploiting Chinese labour and investments to bolster your position in foreign markets. But trying to compete directly in the Chinese market is just dumb. The government isn't stupid. Long-term they know that they'll need every penny of their consumer market to prevent the financial collapse of their producers. And even if the collapse comes, that makes it all the more important to capture that value. Better to wait it out until the Chinese market matures. You'll end up no worse than someone who entered prematurely, and probably better off.
forapurpose 9y ago
> China will likely start opening up more ... Let's not forget that there is an international trend to close down more (to use the same metaphor), including the U.S. and U.K. China could follow that trend too, and certainly the progress of free trade no longer can be assumed. The President of the U.S. just gave an unprecedented speech at the Asian summit, criticizing institutions of rules-based, cooperative international trade expansion, criticizing trade partners, and arguing in favor of every nation adopting his isolationist, nationalist approach. (China's president followed with a speech favoring international trade cooperation.)
- Canada 9y ago
  In contrast, look at what these countries do rather than what their leaders say. American markets are actually open. Americans can invest their money anywhere. Foreigners can buy property and own companies with few restrictions. China discourages imports by punitively taxing them. Chinese face strict capital controls. Foreigners and their businesses are heavily restricted in what they can buy and what activities they can engage in.
  - walshemj 9y ago
    Really in that case when I see prospectuses for floats in the UK they explicitly ban Americans (due to silly IRS rules I belive) The float of the royal mail is one example retail investors in the USA where locked out
    - Canada 9y ago
      That's true, FATCA has created a situation where Americans are effectively locked out of foreign banks. It sucks, especially for Americans living abroad and business people trying to establish themselves internationally, however it's not the same thing as capital controls. Americans can invest anywhere that will accept their money without their own government shutting them down.
  - forapurpose 9y ago
    > American markets are actually open. ... Trump just took office in January; it will take awhile to redirect the massive ship of state. So far he's pulled out of TPP, may pull out of NAFTA, may pull out of the S. Korea trade deal ...
mtgx 9y ago
The sketchy actions are usually a 2-step formula: 1) force foreign companies to "partner" with local Chinese companies. This leads to the joint ventures using backdoors and surveillance against the users 2) Once the partnership is mature enough, the local partners can steal the technology and know-how of the foreigners, and then start competing with them. And because they are local Chinese companies, Chinese customers tend to prefer them, too, to the detriment of the foreign companies. This strategy seems to have worked rather well against pretty much anything except super-entrenched foreign products, like say Windows (which is mostly pirated in China anyway, but without that piracy, Windows would have been relegated to a niche OS a long time ago in China). Even Intel is getting kicked out of China, slowly but surely, as Chinese companies start doing both chip design and chip manufacturing. It didn't help that the U.S. government also recently banned Intel from selling server chips to China in supercomputer contracts because China was doing "nuclear testing" on those supercomputers (Say what? That sounds like a BS reason the Obama administration used to cover-up for something else, but anyways, it still hurts Intel and other American chip companies). What worries me most is not just that those local Chinese companies are starting to bring in billions and billions of dollars every year, which allows them to expand globally (backdoors and all) and acquire foreign companies from abroad, too, but also that Chinese tech is starting to be preferred by foreign companies (again, with backdoors and all). Take for instance Baidu's "self-driving platform", Apollo. Volvo is going to adopt that in its self-driving cars, and there are other carmakers that are considering the same, too. Are you FREAKING KIDDING me? They want to build millions and millions of Chinese self-driving cars over which you'll have no control with Chinese backdoors in them? What could possible go wrong?! I mean I'm sure the NSA will try the same in the U.S. with "lawful intercepts" and whatnot, but I doubt most will accept it and I think those that do will pay the price for it. But the Chinese backdoors are pretty much a certainty. And yes, I know, Baidu's platform is "open source", but first off, I don't think 100% of it will be open source. They might release certain add-ons that the carmakers will want that aren't open source and public. And second, if the Chinese spy agencies are anywhere near as smart as the NSA, the backdoors they will put there will look like some "dumb mistake" a programmer made a long time ago. It will be discovered 5 years later, patched as a regular bug, and things will go on as usual (with 3 other backdoors/intentional vulnerabilities thrown into the code).
- 9y ago

gumby 9y ago

> China will likely start opening up more because Western companies aren't as naive anymore and short term profits for long term losses aren't much of an option anymore now that Chinese companies are well developed in all the tech and economies of scale. Or: China will build local champions who can grow inside a protected region and then, once they have their playbook down and anfat balance sheet, they can go out and buy market share in other regions.

seanmcdirmid 9y ago
Without having to deal with international competition, it’s doubtful the local champions can do much outside of the mainland. It’s like how wechat is the biggest thing inside china, but also missing everywhere abroad outside of the Chinese tourist sector.
- nolok 9y ago
  Then again, Huwai may only be the tip of the iceberg.

jorblumesea 9y ago

I mean, the game they play is really hard to fight against. It usually goes something like this: * Attract western businesses to make investments based on various capital incentives. You are a free market, after all. * Once they are established and comfortable, start imposing restrictions, stealing IP and undercutting foreign companies. Make life increasingly difficult, except for those companies which you really need to stay in the country (Apple etc). * Eventually drive out foreign business because some domestic company has stolen the tech, gotten the market share and is willing to play back with the govt Why play that game? You can't win. Why anyone invests anything other than manufacturing in China is beyond me. If your entire product can be stolen via a USB drive (source code, proprietary manufacturing processes, IP in general) stay far, far away from Chinese businesses or China. They are playing to win in a very serious way.

brianwawok 9y ago
> Why play that game? You can't win. 1 billion people to buy your stuff is pretty tempting!!! If you are a CEO with 10 million shares of stock in BigCo.. and profits are going up like 1% a year.. why not roll the dice with China? If it works for a year, you make a bunch of money and cash out. If not, you don't "lose" anything.
- wahern 9y ago
  Yeah, the CEOs who enter the Chinese market are long gone when the company pulls back. I remember a conversation I had in the late 1990s with the owner of an Indian textiles company (father of a friend). He said Western companies investing in China were idiotic. He was upset because Chinese mills were selling textiles for cheaper than the raw inputs. His point was that anybody who thinks they can "compete" in such a market is stupid. The Chinese government (buoyed by dumb Western money) can support their producers for longer than any non-Chinese company can stay solvent. That will remain true for the foreseeable future. The only winning strategy is to use this state of affairs to your advantage, which mostly means exploiting Chinese labour and investments to bolster your position in foreign markets. But trying to compete directly in the Chinese market is just dumb. The government isn't stupid. Long-term they know that they'll need every penny of their consumer market to prevent the financial collapse of their producers. And even if the collapse comes, that makes it all the more important to capture that value. Better to wait it out until the Chinese market matures. You'll end up no worse than someone who entered prematurely, and probably better off.

forapurpose 9y ago

> China will likely start opening up more ... Let's not forget that there is an international trend to close down more (to use the same metaphor), including the U.S. and U.K. China could follow that trend too, and certainly the progress of free trade no longer can be assumed. The President of the U.S. just gave an unprecedented speech at the Asian summit, criticizing institutions of rules-based, cooperative international trade expansion, criticizing trade partners, and arguing in favor of every nation adopting his isolationist, nationalist approach. (China's president followed with a speech favoring international trade cooperation.)

Canada 9y ago
In contrast, look at what these countries do rather than what their leaders say. American markets are actually open. Americans can invest their money anywhere. Foreigners can buy property and own companies with few restrictions. China discourages imports by punitively taxing them. Chinese face strict capital controls. Foreigners and their businesses are heavily restricted in what they can buy and what activities they can engage in.
- walshemj 9y ago
  Really in that case when I see prospectuses for floats in the UK they explicitly ban Americans (due to silly IRS rules I belive) The float of the royal mail is one example retail investors in the USA where locked out
  - Canada 9y ago
    That's true, FATCA has created a situation where Americans are effectively locked out of foreign banks. It sucks, especially for Americans living abroad and business people trying to establish themselves internationally, however it's not the same thing as capital controls. Americans can invest anywhere that will accept their money without their own government shutting them down.
- forapurpose 9y ago
  > American markets are actually open. ... Trump just took office in January; it will take awhile to redirect the massive ship of state. So far he's pulled out of TPP, may pull out of NAFTA, may pull out of the S. Korea trade deal ...

mtgx 9y ago

The sketchy actions are usually a 2-step formula: 1) force foreign companies to "partner" with local Chinese companies. This leads to the joint ventures using backdoors and surveillance against the users 2) Once the partnership is mature enough, the local partners can steal the technology and know-how of the foreigners, and then start competing with them. And because they are local Chinese companies, Chinese customers tend to prefer them, too, to the detriment of the foreign companies. This strategy seems to have worked rather well against pretty much anything except super-entrenched foreign products, like say Windows (which is mostly pirated in China anyway, but without that piracy, Windows would have been relegated to a niche OS a long time ago in China). Even Intel is getting kicked out of China, slowly but surely, as Chinese companies start doing both chip design and chip manufacturing. It didn't help that the U.S. government also recently banned Intel from selling server chips to China in supercomputer contracts because China was doing "nuclear testing" on those supercomputers (Say what? That sounds like a BS reason the Obama administration used to cover-up for something else, but anyways, it still hurts Intel and other American chip companies). What worries me most is not just that those local Chinese companies are starting to bring in billions and billions of dollars every year, which allows them to expand globally (backdoors and all) and acquire foreign companies from abroad, too, but also that Chinese tech is starting to be preferred by foreign companies (again, with backdoors and all). Take for instance Baidu's "self-driving platform", Apollo. Volvo is going to adopt that in its self-driving cars, and there are other carmakers that are considering the same, too. Are you FREAKING KIDDING me? They want to build millions and millions of Chinese self-driving cars over which you'll have no control with Chinese backdoors in them? What could possible go wrong?! I mean I'm sure the NSA will try the same in the U.S. with "lawful intercepts" and whatnot, but I doubt most will accept it and I think those that do will pay the price for it. But the Chinese backdoors are pretty much a certainty. And yes, I know, Baidu's platform is "open source", but first off, I don't think 100% of it will be open source. They might release certain add-ons that the carmakers will want that aren't open source and public. And second, if the Chinese spy agencies are anywhere near as smart as the NSA, the backdoors they will put there will look like some "dumb mistake" a programmer made a long time ago. It will be discovered 5 years later, patched as a regular bug, and things will go on as usual (with 3 other backdoors/intentional vulnerabilities thrown into the code).

9y ago