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That means that FB was probably the last "web" or "app" big IPO. Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. Even Yelp is withering. Just like it has been impossible t

by cft 9y ago

That means that FB was probably the last "web" or "app" big IPO. Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. Even Yelp is withering. Just like it has been impossible to start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla), the opportunity for creating new large web companies has been shut by the entrenched trio.

ptero 9y ago
I do not think it is shut, but new entrants must offer something significantly better (or new and useful) than what is available from big 3. I am not sure what exactly Snaps value was beyond some funny face transforms. If nothing, it is not surprising if it fails once the novelty wears off.
- hn_throwaway_99 9y ago
  It was certainly different when it launched, though, before most of its features were copied into Instagram.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- askafriend 9y ago
  I think Nextdoor has a real opportunity here in offering something very differentiated and useful (to varying degrees, depending on neighborhood).
  - retailbuyout 9y ago
    Sure. But it’s useful today. Are they going to continue the unicorn startup charade and ruin the product in the progress, like facebook? Or snapchat? Or even twitter! We’d be distinctly better off as humans without any of them.
LrnByTeach 9y ago
I thought many times about world domination of these companies in each of these 4 areas which started their significant presence from year 2000 onwards . Search - Google Shopping - Amazon Social - Facebook Mobile - Apple ( Apple mobile journey started only after year 2000) >The opportunity for creating "new large web companies" has been shut by the entrenched TRIO. > Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. > That means that FB was probably the last "web" or "app" big IPO. > Even Yelp is withering. > Just like it has been impossible to start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla), the opportunity for creating new large web companies has been shut by the entrenched trio.
- Fej 9y ago
  Apple does not dominate mobile by any stretch of the imagination, with about 15% market share. Google, on the other hand, is creeping up to monopoly status with Android and its roughly 85% market share.
  - askafriend 9y ago
    15%-20% marketshare in the smartphone category and yet they capture ~90% of the profits. To me, that's definitely a type of domination.
adventured 9y ago
You're radically exaggerating. Yelp? I don't see how that's a particularly good example. Priceline is 27 times their size in market cap. Let's examine that withering though. Yelp sales by year: 2014: $377 million 2015: $549 million 2016: $713 million 2017: likely ~$850 million Is that massive growth what qualifies as withering these days? How about Zillow? Tracking to $1 billion in sales, growing very nicely still. Expedia also has a very good business, they just printed a huge quarter ($481m in operating income). How about Uber and Airbnb? $100 billion in market cap, both fast growing businesses. Netflix, $83 billion market cap, 100 million paying subscribers, still growing nicely. How about Spotify? Over 60 million subscribers. Beating Apple, Amazon, Pandora and Google at streaming music. How about Pinterest? They've just begun the process of making money with their platform. Things are looking just fine for them. Neither Facebook nor Google have been able to harm them in any meaningful way. Since we're talking about Google and Amazon, let's switch gears into payments. PayPal is a monster. Stripe and Square are killing it. How about in code, given we're talking about Google. Github? Google is a non-issue. Stackoverflow? No threats on the horizon, they have a serious, viable long-term business. eBay and Craigslist are doing just fine. Amazon hasn't so much as dented either of them. eBay is printing $2 billion annually in net income and has an extremely healthy business. Even lowly Groupon is planning to stick around, they're doing $3b in sales and are now break-even. Shopify is also killing it right now. $10 billion market cap, with a business that has grown by ~5 fold in four years (72% sales growth in their most recent quarter). Then we get into dozens of other major web businesses, like LegalZoom, Coinbase, Redfin, DraftKings, GoDaddy, Shutterstock, Automattic, SoFi, Houzz, Lyft, Slack, Dropbox, Etsy, GrubHub, Credit Karma, SurveyMonkey, Reddit, Shutterfly and so on. And that's while ignoring the vast array of major cloud businesses and enterprise companies, many of which compete with Google and Amazon (or will soon). Companies like Oracle, Microsoft, Cloudflare, Akamai, Digital Ocean and dozens more.
- soVeryTired 9y ago
  I don't disagree that it's possible to beat the big three, but even prior to the snap IPO, the tech market felt a bit bubbly. There will be some big losers in your list too. It's worth saving this comment for posterity.
- 9y ago
fullshark 9y ago
Uber?
TylerE 9y ago
> start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla Porsche (1931) Nissan (1933) Volkswagen (1937) Toyota (1937) Kia (1944) Hyundai (1947) Honda (1948) Land Rover (1948) SEAT (1950) Lotus (1952) Subaru (1953) Lamborghini (1963) Dozens of Chinese companies in recent years... On the aero side: Antonov (1946) Embraer (1969) Airbus (1970) Diamond (1981) ATR (1981) Cirrus (1984) Bombardier (1989) These lists are very far from inclusive.
- pcurve 9y ago
  Bombardier bought airplane mfr that was founded in 1940s. Airbus was just pooling of several air companies and expertise in 1970. ATR was founded and backed by another plane company. Etc... I think your list shows how difficult it is to start a company in these two sectors .
- cft 9y ago
  A lot of these companies are government (or at least government-backed) projects: VW, Embraer, Antonov, Airbus, SEAT, etc. And Japanese situation after WW2 was special. It's like saying that healthcare.gov is a new upcoming web giant.
QML 9y ago
Contrast that with the fact that the half-life of S&P 500 companies has shortened — I don’t think web monopolies are here to stay. Only thing holding those trio up is a self sustaining loop of VC money and ad revenue.

by cft 9y ago

ptero 9y ago

I do not think it is shut, but new entrants must offer something significantly better (or new and useful) than what is available from big 3. I am not sure what exactly Snaps value was beyond some funny face transforms. If nothing, it is not surprising if it fails once the novelty wears off.

hn_throwaway_99 9y ago
It was certainly different when it launched, though, before most of its features were copied into Instagram.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
askafriend 9y ago
I think Nextdoor has a real opportunity here in offering something very differentiated and useful (to varying degrees, depending on neighborhood).
- retailbuyout 9y ago
  Sure. But it’s useful today. Are they going to continue the unicorn startup charade and ruin the product in the progress, like facebook? Or snapchat? Or even twitter! We’d be distinctly better off as humans without any of them.

LrnByTeach 9y ago

I thought many times about world domination of these companies in each of these 4 areas which started their significant presence from year 2000 onwards . Search - Google Shopping - Amazon Social - Facebook Mobile - Apple ( Apple mobile journey started only after year 2000) >The opportunity for creating "new large web companies" has been shut by the entrenched TRIO. > Now it's Amazon, Google or Facebook. > That means that FB was probably the last "web" or "app" big IPO. > Even Yelp is withering. > Just like it has been impossible to start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla), the opportunity for creating new large web companies has been shut by the entrenched trio.

Fej 9y ago
Apple does not dominate mobile by any stretch of the imagination, with about 15% market share. Google, on the other hand, is creeping up to monopoly status with Android and its roughly 85% market share.
- askafriend 9y ago
  15%-20% marketshare in the smartphone category and yet they capture ~90% of the profits. To me, that's definitely a type of domination.

adventured 9y ago

You're radically exaggerating. Yelp? I don't see how that's a particularly good example. Priceline is 27 times their size in market cap. Let's examine that withering though. Yelp sales by year: 2014: $377 million 2015: $549 million 2016: $713 million 2017: likely ~$850 million Is that massive growth what qualifies as withering these days? How about Zillow? Tracking to $1 billion in sales, growing very nicely still. Expedia also has a very good business, they just printed a huge quarter ($481m in operating income). How about Uber and Airbnb? $100 billion in market cap, both fast growing businesses. Netflix, $83 billion market cap, 100 million paying subscribers, still growing nicely. How about Spotify? Over 60 million subscribers. Beating Apple, Amazon, Pandora and Google at streaming music. How about Pinterest? They've just begun the process of making money with their platform. Things are looking just fine for them. Neither Facebook nor Google have been able to harm them in any meaningful way. Since we're talking about Google and Amazon, let's switch gears into payments. PayPal is a monster. Stripe and Square are killing it. How about in code, given we're talking about Google. Github? Google is a non-issue. Stackoverflow? No threats on the horizon, they have a serious, viable long-term business. eBay and Craigslist are doing just fine. Amazon hasn't so much as dented either of them. eBay is printing $2 billion annually in net income and has an extremely healthy business. Even lowly Groupon is planning to stick around, they're doing $3b in sales and are now break-even. Shopify is also killing it right now. $10 billion market cap, with a business that has grown by ~5 fold in four years (72% sales growth in their most recent quarter). Then we get into dozens of other major web businesses, like LegalZoom, Coinbase, Redfin, DraftKings, GoDaddy, Shutterstock, Automattic, SoFi, Houzz, Lyft, Slack, Dropbox, Etsy, GrubHub, Credit Karma, SurveyMonkey, Reddit, Shutterfly and so on. And that's while ignoring the vast array of major cloud businesses and enterprise companies, many of which compete with Google and Amazon (or will soon). Companies like Oracle, Microsoft, Cloudflare, Akamai, Digital Ocean and dozens more.

soVeryTired 9y ago
I don't disagree that it's possible to beat the big three, but even prior to the snap IPO, the tech market felt a bit bubbly. There will be some big losers in your list too. It's worth saving this comment for posterity.
9y ago

fullshark 9y ago

Uber?

TylerE 9y ago

> start a new car or airliner manufacturer since the 1920s (except for Tesla Porsche (1931) Nissan (1933) Volkswagen (1937) Toyota (1937) Kia (1944) Hyundai (1947) Honda (1948) Land Rover (1948) SEAT (1950) Lotus (1952) Subaru (1953) Lamborghini (1963) Dozens of Chinese companies in recent years... On the aero side: Antonov (1946) Embraer (1969) Airbus (1970) Diamond (1981) ATR (1981) Cirrus (1984) Bombardier (1989) These lists are very far from inclusive.

pcurve 9y ago
Bombardier bought airplane mfr that was founded in 1940s. Airbus was just pooling of several air companies and expertise in 1970. ATR was founded and backed by another plane company. Etc... I think your list shows how difficult it is to start a company in these two sectors .
cft 9y ago
A lot of these companies are government (or at least government-backed) projects: VW, Embraer, Antonov, Airbus, SEAT, etc. And Japanese situation after WW2 was special. It's like saying that healthcare.gov is a new upcoming web giant.

QML 9y ago

Contrast that with the fact that the half-life of S&P 500 companies has shortened — I don’t think web monopolies are here to stay. Only thing holding those trio up is a self sustaining loop of VC money and ad revenue.