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Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month (which is average US driver car mileage/month), savings are so big as average car ownership is around $400/month ( AAA Estimate ) , all inclusive of - Car depreciation - Insurance cost - gasoline cost - Repairs & maintenance costs - extra 1 hours/day you get in NOT-Driving (EDIT: This Model I mentioned is Summon only, there is NO OWNERSHIP of the Car, is it monthly pay instead of per RIDE Pay . In this Model, All the Major CAR Manufactures of today offer these FLEETS with monthly pay of 1000/miles month SUBSCRIPTIONS. Being a) no-driver Cost b) ELECTRIC c) RIDE Sharing d) mass adoption -- is the key for Lower price tag of $200/month ) The above is Phase 1, in Phase 2 starting 2025 Google will be supplying only "end-to-end Autonomous vehicle Software system" for a fee of $5000/year per car for ALL the CAR FLEET companies . Google will run small FLEET of Autonomous CARs for the purpose of "Reference implementation of Software" much like "Pixel Android Phones" to showcase the Reference implementation of Android ( for all other Android Vendors )

bitL 9y ago
Why would you want to own a self-driving car? You'll just summon it from the nearest parking lot when needed.
- saurik 9y ago
  I store tons of stuff in my car so I can have it available at all of the various places I end up, and while I would happily believe I am not in the majority, this does not seem to be something that would be rare. While I don't feel the need to "own" a car (I literally rent a car continually, paying in 30-day cycles), it would be extremely annoying to not have consistent control over most of the storage space in a car (I often even have stuff in the back seat I am dragging around with me forever). And no: while I do love driving, I feel no need to drive, and would welcome a future where the car drove for me... but it will be a much more awkward arrangement to get me to be OK just summoning random cars temporarily.
  - munificent 9y ago
    It would be pretty easy for a fleet service to also provide a bin that you can persistently store your stuff in. When you summon a car, the system puts your bin in before it goes to get you.
    - mavhc 9y ago
      I envisage systems of standardised storage lockers, you can pull the whole locker into your car, 4 fit in the car for 4 users, you can wheel them into work, or lock into cabinets around the place, when there's no car parks they'll be lots of free space, 1% can be for storage lockers.
      - rrhd 9y ago
        Why would there be no car parks? People tend to travel at similar times. Your total number of cars required is still going to be high.
        mavhc 9y ago
        Because it's just a drop off point as all cars are now taxis
  - LrnByTeach 9y ago
    I agree, there are good % of people like you for all right reasons to have a their OWN CAR "same CAR" every day. There will be different flavors of pricing for needs like yours, like 'Keeping CAR With you'. How about this pricing Option 1: The CAR will be in serving people 10 streets around your Home, will be available whenever you want but costs you $300 /month ( It will have two Locker boxes in the Truck to keep your Items ALL the time, and your LOCKER BOX opens only with your Smart Phone ). Option 2: you lease Autonomous car, it is all yours to keep, but the price is like $500/month Lease .
    - Tyr42 9y ago
      Lockers in the trunk reduce the ability to go grocery shopping :/
- LrnByTeach 9y ago
  There is no Ownership, it is Summon only When I said, $200/month for 1000 miles/month is one time pay, there is NO per ride PAY. It is like you pay your Cell Phone Bill. Use those 1000 miles in that month whenever you want .
  - krisroadruck 9y ago
    But do you get rollover miles?
- jedberg 9y ago
  My car doubles as a "everything I need when I take the kid out" storage. We always have: - diapers - changing pad - strollers - extra clothes - kids movies for the tv in the van, queued up to where we left off Sure, people in places like NYC just carry all that stuff with them when they take the kid out, but they also take the kid out less often or move to the burbs because it's a huge pain in the butt. I'd much rather own the car simply so that I can keep all my stuff in it that I need when I go out.
  - emidln 9y ago
    When I lived in the Metro DC area (Bailey's Crossroads in NoVA) with a 1-2 year old we kept that stuff in the bottom of our stroller (mostly in a single medium-sized bag). We took the stroller everywhere via buses and trains. We very rarely drove our vehicle while living in DC since a couple grocery stores, several restaurants, and several department stores were within easy walking distance (about a mile) from our house. With the stroller, we used carabiners to hold bags on the walk back. For longer excursions (all day to a museum or zoo), I'd bring a backpack with misc stuff in addition to what was in the stroller. Our stroller had a detachable car seat integrated (the car seat set locked into the stroller when using it as a stroller), which allowed us to use taxis if needed.
    - jedberg 9y ago
      Yes, we've done all that too when traveling. But it's a lot easier to just hop in the car and go, knowing that all that stuff is already there.
      - Johnny555 9y ago
        It's only easier if you know you'll have parking at your destination. If you live in a city with convenient transit service, you don't need to worry about parking. And if you want to take a long stroll down the waterfront, you don't need to return to your car to go home, you just hop on a different train.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- LrnByTeach 9y ago
  It is Summon only, no ownership. when I said $200/month SUBSCRIPTION for 1000 miles, no Per RIDE pay
  - rrhd 9y ago
    WHY must YOU keep CAPITALIZING RANDOM WORDS?
    - LrnByTeach 9y ago
      Sorry, I will avoid that in future ..
      - alkonaut 9y ago
        I recommend surrounding words with asterisks to get a less screamy emphasis.
aidenn0 9y ago
I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday nights driving for 12 hours (mostly sleeping) means I am at my parent's house on Tuesday and I either take Monday as vacation or work remotely from a friend's house in Ohio. We see friends in flyover country that we rarely visit or see national parks on Saturday and Sunday. I can now take the whole family to my parents taking just 2 days of vacation/remote for the trip, for only the depreciation cost on my car. Car trip isn't too bad because the kids are awake for a total of the running time of 6 movies. Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time.
- jedrek 9y ago
  While I agree that it's impossible to make predictions, your example is a massive edge case.
  - sangnoir 9y ago
    I don't think it's an edge case: If an operator redesigns the interior of their fleet with large, comfortable reclining seats, long distance travel by road will become much more competitive with business-/first-class air travel. Boarding at my house and being dropped off at my destination and sleeping all the way (or working if you're a telecommuter, or watching movies) is quite appealing to me - the lack of TSA and/or Rapey-scan is a bonus edit: changed a few words for clarity
    - notahacker 9y ago
      I've been on long distance buses with large, comfortable reclining seats and convenient pickup/dropoff points for 8 hour plus journeys more than most sane people I assure you it's not the human driver which means that most people strongly prefer other methods of transport.
falcolas 9y ago
With the following caveat, I'll bite: "Not available in adverse weather conditions or outside service zones". Said service zones wouldn't include anyplace where increased crime is a concern. The cars would also probably have to be inspected and possibly cleaned between each use... I'm also uncertain the tech is advancing quickly enough to justify a 5 year timeline. Not to mention ensuring society and the government is onboard with this. It would suck to be stuck in an automated car by a picket line of displaced drivers.
- wpietri 9y ago
  Why do you think crime is a big deal? If you just want to steal a car, cities are littered with them. If you want to rob people, humans are also not hard to find. And an autonomous vehicle will have excellent video recording, fast notification of police, and hard-to-disable vehicle tracking. Weather, though, is a giant issue. Chandler, AZ has 90% dry days and rarely gets more than an inch of rain per month [1], so I think it's no coincidence they've started there. As a Michigander, I grew up driving in all sorts of shitty weather, so it's astonishing to watch San Francisco drivers fall apart in heavy rain. I expect auto-automobiles to be no better. [1] https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/arizona/united-states/3172 https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/arizona/united-states/...
  - Canada 9y ago
    Automated cars will be better than most of us in these conditions. If you live somewhere that only snows a few days each year, you can't drive in it very well. You don't even have the right tires. Fleets will change their tires for the conditions and the automated system will be just as good at driving in adverse conditions as it would be if it drove in them all year. The sensors will see things human eyes can't. I don't know how long it will take to happen, but it's inevitable.
    - wpietri 9y ago
      Sure, eventually it will be better. But I wouldn't be shocked if bad-weather automatic driving lagged at least a decade behind what they can get away with in Arizona. It's a significantly harder problem, and much more difficult to generate reams of data to test against. Worse, the risk shoots way up, and people will be much less tolerant of risks that aren't under their control. "Driver Ends Up In Ditch" is never news in places with real winter. But "Google Almost Killed My Family" sure will be.
ugh123 9y ago
I think Google providing/licensing the software and tech to other manufacturers is risky and leaves open the possibility for a new provider to slide in and undercut with each car provider. Google should leverage their early position and corner the market where they'll be a sole player and dominate for the longterm.
- LrnByTeach 9y ago
  Let us explore the case of competitor offering software by under cutting Google with low price . Let us take the established known history of 'Evolution of Android on smart phones'. By 2010 as Android share is growing world wide, everybody know there is big money to be made in FUTURE ( By Ads and other means ) by supplying Mobile OS even at free of cost at THAT time. But nobody is able to do it, even microsoft with it Billions even after after offering Mobile OS Free to vendors . Now with self-driving Car software, google with DeepMind, Self-driving Teams hundreds of Deep Learning engineering working and developed advanced Neural nets have at least the edge of few years over competation. Again in 2025, google will choose to limit as "software system supplier" from the "position of strength" that is 1) Let the FLEET companies compete for LOW MARGIN monthly SUBSCRIPTION FEES and provide high value software 2) By limiting as software players, it treats all FLEETS as equals avoiding the "formation of Consortium of" FLEET & Car Manufactures". Beyond 2025, both FLEET and Car manufacture will be SAME ONE Entity, With out running FLEET, you can not Survive as CAR Manufacturer as there are FEW "end User Buyers" left as majority start moving to "on-demand Summon Monthly Subscription" pay model . 2017 US new Car& Truck Sales are at 17 Million Vehicles , by 2022 it will reduce to 14 Million, then by 2025 10 Millions, then the decline Accelerates . Even number of different CAR Models are around 500 worldwide, by 2025+ they should reduce to 100 models and Lots of mergers and shutdown of CAR companies
  - ugh123 9y ago
    With Android, Google was able to maintain its influence by the use of the Play store and other external services tied directly to default and popular apps (i'm aware there are hacks to get around certain restrictions within the AOSP). Those same concepts won't necessarily be applicable to self-driving car tech.. unless Google is able to establish auxiliary services required to support the self-driving network (public monitoring stations, deep mapping, etc) that can further solidify their position while continuing to distribute just the software. This would further raise the bar for competitors to enter the market.
myrandomcomment 9y ago
I love my cars. That being said it took 1.5 hours to drive the 30 miles to work today with traffic down the 17/85/101. I would sign up for this in a second and sell one of the cars.
- seanp2k2 9y ago
  IMO it's solving the wrong problem. Did what you do at work require you to be there, or could you just as well have done your work from home / a close co-working facility?
whiddershins 9y ago
Your comment was interesting. However, I found the use of all caps very distracting. From the guidelines: “Please don't use uppercase for emphasis. If you want to emphasize a word or phrase, put asterisks around it and it will get italicized.” Just my two cents.
- hughes 9y ago
  Even with italics, 2-3 emphasized words per sentence is way too much to take seriously
Blazespinnaker 9y ago
You missed demand pricing
- LrnByTeach 9y ago
  What I mentioned is general pricing.. As you said, there will be all kinds of Demand pricing.. one example You will have 1000/miles per month general rate. If you use peak hours 8 AM to 9 AM , then it is counted as 2X miles of real distance etc..
Consultant32452 9y ago
I intend to be an early adopter of these subscriptions, but there's a key item they don't overcome: kids. When you have kids you don't just have to bring them everywhere, you have to bring lots of equipment everywhere. Baseball, hockey, football, etc. has lots of equipment that people are accustomed to leaving in the back of their vehicles. Same goes with strollers and diaper bag for babies. I don't know how we'll overcome that, most families will presumably still need to own at least one car. However, many two-car families should be able to downgrade (upgrade?) to one car and a subscription.
TallGuyShort 9y ago
If a significant percentage of the population shift to a subscription service where they summon cars on-demand, the benefits to smoothing out everyone's commute schedule will grow dramatically. Ride-sharing will help, but assuming population keeps out-pacing growth of infrastructure in already-congested area, removing individual car ownership and switching to a shared pool will increase avoidance of peak hours. I really see a future in which having most people work 8-5 will become incredibly inefficient, and more work will be done on flexible / rotating schedules (or more remotely). Which means the little benefit of daylight savings that is there will disappear, which would be awesome. Long-live the driverless car subscription model.
rsync 9y ago
"If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below." I think you drastically underestimate the possible values of pessimism. In my opinion, truly autonomous vehicles driving in arbitrary, real world, public roads in my lifetime sounds optimistic ...
- alkonaut 9y ago
  I think it might be possible that the subscription fleets that already exist in many cities can be used to "summon" (like teslas can be summoned) a few blocks ro a few miles, autonomously, because they know the area. That makes these subscriptions much more convenient than having to pick up/drop off a share car in a fixed spot. The user uses the car for a while in semi-autonomous mode (car can drive 90, 95 or 99% with user supervision) and then the user can return it by letting it drive back. If the car is stuck it just stops and a driver from the fleet company comes along to drive it. I think a scenario like that could be viable in small scale for some metropolitan areas (good climate, limited user base etc) within 5 years.
- 60654 9y ago
  Yeah, having done robotics in the past, I'm super skeptical of promises of level 5 autonomy in the real world, even in the medium term. I mean, we were able to do level 5 trucks in the desert two decades ago! But the human world is much less benign, and the perception problem is hard. And the history of AI is littered with limited solutions that failed to scale. So I'm more curious about the purported GM testing of level 4 in Manhattan, it's a much more realistic and far less forgiving driving environment.
ataturk 9y ago
I have a few reservations about all of it: First off, you're putting your life in the hands of some code, which is totally stupid, as anyone who writes code for a living will attest (and don't talk to me about airliners and autopilots, it's no the same thing with a PILOT sitting right there who can immediately take over the plane). Second, these stupid things will be red-lined such that you won't be able to have it take to a location other than where you're allowed to go. If you don't think that is a probable scenario, just watch as robbery gangs use them to pilfer and steal from the suburbs and see how it all goes down. Third, and this is kind of the stealth thing I see going on here: All this subscription non-ownership is really pulling apart the basic nature of what being free and owning property is all about. I like owning my stuff because it's mine. If you've ever worked around a rental business of any kind, you know what the tragedy of the commons does to rental equipment--and for those who don't know, it gets wrecked HARD. Always. So I don't need some stealth corporate communism shoved up my anus just so Waymo or whoever can make billions. I guess "NO OWNERSHIP" appeals to emasculated Millenials or something, dunno. I really think when these folks finally grow up they're going to be extremely unhappy about the living hell they made for themselves.
CSMastermind 9y ago
I'd bet my left nut that by 2021 there won't be a self-driving car subscription service. I'd be surprised if your average consumer could buy them by then.
rayiner 9y ago
I’ll bet you money there’s no legal self- driving car subscription like that in DC by 2023
- harryh 9y ago
  I'm not willing to bet on specific prices or business models but I will bet you $100 that a traveler will be able to take a self driving car from Reagan Airport to The Hay-Adams Hotel on or before Dec 31, 2023.

bitL 9y ago

Why would you want to own a self-driving car? You'll just summon it from the nearest parking lot when needed.

saurik 9y ago
I store tons of stuff in my car so I can have it available at all of the various places I end up, and while I would happily believe I am not in the majority, this does not seem to be something that would be rare. While I don't feel the need to "own" a car (I literally rent a car continually, paying in 30-day cycles), it would be extremely annoying to not have consistent control over most of the storage space in a car (I often even have stuff in the back seat I am dragging around with me forever). And no: while I do love driving, I feel no need to drive, and would welcome a future where the car drove for me... but it will be a much more awkward arrangement to get me to be OK just summoning random cars temporarily.
- munificent 9y ago
  It would be pretty easy for a fleet service to also provide a bin that you can persistently store your stuff in. When you summon a car, the system puts your bin in before it goes to get you.
  - mavhc 9y ago
    I envisage systems of standardised storage lockers, you can pull the whole locker into your car, 4 fit in the car for 4 users, you can wheel them into work, or lock into cabinets around the place, when there's no car parks they'll be lots of free space, 1% can be for storage lockers.
    - rrhd 9y ago
      Why would there be no car parks? People tend to travel at similar times. Your total number of cars required is still going to be high.
      - mavhc 9y ago
        Because it's just a drop off point as all cars are now taxis
- LrnByTeach 9y ago
  I agree, there are good % of people like you for all right reasons to have a their OWN CAR "same CAR" every day. There will be different flavors of pricing for needs like yours, like 'Keeping CAR With you'. How about this pricing Option 1: The CAR will be in serving people 10 streets around your Home, will be available whenever you want but costs you $300 /month ( It will have two Locker boxes in the Truck to keep your Items ALL the time, and your LOCKER BOX opens only with your Smart Phone ). Option 2: you lease Autonomous car, it is all yours to keep, but the price is like $500/month Lease .
  - Tyr42 9y ago
    Lockers in the trunk reduce the ability to go grocery shopping :/
LrnByTeach 9y ago
There is no Ownership, it is Summon only When I said, $200/month for 1000 miles/month is one time pay, there is NO per ride PAY. It is like you pay your Cell Phone Bill. Use those 1000 miles in that month whenever you want .
- krisroadruck 9y ago
  But do you get rollover miles?
jedberg 9y ago
My car doubles as a "everything I need when I take the kid out" storage. We always have: - diapers - changing pad - strollers - extra clothes - kids movies for the tv in the van, queued up to where we left off Sure, people in places like NYC just carry all that stuff with them when they take the kid out, but they also take the kid out less often or move to the burbs because it's a huge pain in the butt. I'd much rather own the car simply so that I can keep all my stuff in it that I need when I go out.
- emidln 9y ago
  When I lived in the Metro DC area (Bailey's Crossroads in NoVA) with a 1-2 year old we kept that stuff in the bottom of our stroller (mostly in a single medium-sized bag). We took the stroller everywhere via buses and trains. We very rarely drove our vehicle while living in DC since a couple grocery stores, several restaurants, and several department stores were within easy walking distance (about a mile) from our house. With the stroller, we used carabiners to hold bags on the walk back. For longer excursions (all day to a museum or zoo), I'd bring a backpack with misc stuff in addition to what was in the stroller. Our stroller had a detachable car seat integrated (the car seat set locked into the stroller when using it as a stroller), which allowed us to use taxis if needed.
  - jedberg 9y ago
    Yes, we've done all that too when traveling. But it's a lot easier to just hop in the car and go, knowing that all that stuff is already there.
    - Johnny555 9y ago
      It's only easier if you know you'll have parking at your destination. If you live in a city with convenient transit service, you don't need to worry about parking. And if you want to take a long stroll down the waterfront, you don't need to return to your car to go home, you just hop on a different train.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
LrnByTeach 9y ago
It is Summon only, no ownership. when I said $200/month SUBSCRIPTION for 1000 miles, no Per RIDE pay
- rrhd 9y ago
  WHY must YOU keep CAPITALIZING RANDOM WORDS?
  - LrnByTeach 9y ago
    Sorry, I will avoid that in future ..
    - alkonaut 9y ago
      I recommend surrounding words with asterisks to get a less screamy emphasis.

aidenn0 9y ago

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday nights driving for 12 hours (mostly sleeping) means I am at my parent's house on Tuesday and I either take Monday as vacation or work remotely from a friend's house in Ohio. We see friends in flyover country that we rarely visit or see national parks on Saturday and Sunday. I can now take the whole family to my parents taking just 2 days of vacation/remote for the trip, for only the depreciation cost on my car. Car trip isn't too bad because the kids are awake for a total of the running time of 6 movies. Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time.

jedrek 9y ago
While I agree that it's impossible to make predictions, your example is a massive edge case.
- sangnoir 9y ago
  I don't think it's an edge case: If an operator redesigns the interior of their fleet with large, comfortable reclining seats, long distance travel by road will become much more competitive with business-/first-class air travel. Boarding at my house and being dropped off at my destination and sleeping all the way (or working if you're a telecommuter, or watching movies) is quite appealing to me - the lack of TSA and/or Rapey-scan is a bonus edit: changed a few words for clarity
  - notahacker 9y ago
    I've been on long distance buses with large, comfortable reclining seats and convenient pickup/dropoff points for 8 hour plus journeys more than most sane people I assure you it's not the human driver which means that most people strongly prefer other methods of transport.

falcolas 9y ago

With the following caveat, I'll bite: "Not available in adverse weather conditions or outside service zones". Said service zones wouldn't include anyplace where increased crime is a concern. The cars would also probably have to be inspected and possibly cleaned between each use... I'm also uncertain the tech is advancing quickly enough to justify a 5 year timeline. Not to mention ensuring society and the government is onboard with this. It would suck to be stuck in an automated car by a picket line of displaced drivers.

wpietri 9y ago
Why do you think crime is a big deal? If you just want to steal a car, cities are littered with them. If you want to rob people, humans are also not hard to find. And an autonomous vehicle will have excellent video recording, fast notification of police, and hard-to-disable vehicle tracking. Weather, though, is a giant issue. Chandler, AZ has 90% dry days and rarely gets more than an inch of rain per month [1], so I think it's no coincidence they've started there. As a Michigander, I grew up driving in all sorts of shitty weather, so it's astonishing to watch San Francisco drivers fall apart in heavy rain. I expect auto-automobiles to be no better. [1] https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/arizona/united-states/3172 https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/arizona/united-states/...
- Canada 9y ago
  Automated cars will be better than most of us in these conditions. If you live somewhere that only snows a few days each year, you can't drive in it very well. You don't even have the right tires. Fleets will change their tires for the conditions and the automated system will be just as good at driving in adverse conditions as it would be if it drove in them all year. The sensors will see things human eyes can't. I don't know how long it will take to happen, but it's inevitable.
  - wpietri 9y ago
    Sure, eventually it will be better. But I wouldn't be shocked if bad-weather automatic driving lagged at least a decade behind what they can get away with in Arizona. It's a significantly harder problem, and much more difficult to generate reams of data to test against. Worse, the risk shoots way up, and people will be much less tolerant of risks that aren't under their control. "Driver Ends Up In Ditch" is never news in places with real winter. But "Google Almost Killed My Family" sure will be.

ugh123 9y ago

I think Google providing/licensing the software and tech to other manufacturers is risky and leaves open the possibility for a new provider to slide in and undercut with each car provider. Google should leverage their early position and corner the market where they'll be a sole player and dominate for the longterm.

LrnByTeach 9y ago
Let us explore the case of competitor offering software by under cutting Google with low price . Let us take the established known history of 'Evolution of Android on smart phones'. By 2010 as Android share is growing world wide, everybody know there is big money to be made in FUTURE ( By Ads and other means ) by supplying Mobile OS even at free of cost at THAT time. But nobody is able to do it, even microsoft with it Billions even after after offering Mobile OS Free to vendors . Now with self-driving Car software, google with DeepMind, Self-driving Teams hundreds of Deep Learning engineering working and developed advanced Neural nets have at least the edge of few years over competation. Again in 2025, google will choose to limit as "software system supplier" from the "position of strength" that is 1) Let the FLEET companies compete for LOW MARGIN monthly SUBSCRIPTION FEES and provide high value software 2) By limiting as software players, it treats all FLEETS as equals avoiding the "formation of Consortium of" FLEET & Car Manufactures". Beyond 2025, both FLEET and Car manufacture will be SAME ONE Entity, With out running FLEET, you can not Survive as CAR Manufacturer as there are FEW "end User Buyers" left as majority start moving to "on-demand Summon Monthly Subscription" pay model . 2017 US new Car& Truck Sales are at 17 Million Vehicles , by 2022 it will reduce to 14 Million, then by 2025 10 Millions, then the decline Accelerates . Even number of different CAR Models are around 500 worldwide, by 2025+ they should reduce to 100 models and Lots of mergers and shutdown of CAR companies
- ugh123 9y ago
  With Android, Google was able to maintain its influence by the use of the Play store and other external services tied directly to default and popular apps (i'm aware there are hacks to get around certain restrictions within the AOSP). Those same concepts won't necessarily be applicable to self-driving car tech.. unless Google is able to establish auxiliary services required to support the self-driving network (public monitoring stations, deep mapping, etc) that can further solidify their position while continuing to distribute just the software. This would further raise the bar for competitors to enter the market.

myrandomcomment 9y ago

I love my cars. That being said it took 1.5 hours to drive the 30 miles to work today with traffic down the 17/85/101. I would sign up for this in a second and sell one of the cars.

seanp2k2 9y ago
IMO it's solving the wrong problem. Did what you do at work require you to be there, or could you just as well have done your work from home / a close co-working facility?

whiddershins 9y ago

Your comment was interesting. However, I found the use of all caps very distracting. From the guidelines: “Please don't use uppercase for emphasis. If you want to emphasize a word or phrase, put asterisks around it and it will get italicized.” Just my two cents.

hughes 9y ago
Even with italics, 2-3 emphasized words per sentence is way too much to take seriously

Blazespinnaker 9y ago

You missed demand pricing

LrnByTeach 9y ago
What I mentioned is general pricing.. As you said, there will be all kinds of Demand pricing.. one example You will have 1000/miles per month general rate. If you use peak hours 8 AM to 9 AM , then it is counted as 2X miles of real distance etc..

Consultant32452 9y ago

I intend to be an early adopter of these subscriptions, but there's a key item they don't overcome: kids. When you have kids you don't just have to bring them everywhere, you have to bring lots of equipment everywhere. Baseball, hockey, football, etc. has lots of equipment that people are accustomed to leaving in the back of their vehicles. Same goes with strollers and diaper bag for babies. I don't know how we'll overcome that, most families will presumably still need to own at least one car. However, many two-car families should be able to downgrade (upgrade?) to one car and a subscription.

TallGuyShort 9y ago

If a significant percentage of the population shift to a subscription service where they summon cars on-demand, the benefits to smoothing out everyone's commute schedule will grow dramatically. Ride-sharing will help, but assuming population keeps out-pacing growth of infrastructure in already-congested area, removing individual car ownership and switching to a shared pool will increase avoidance of peak hours. I really see a future in which having most people work 8-5 will become incredibly inefficient, and more work will be done on flexible / rotating schedules (or more remotely). Which means the little benefit of daylight savings that is there will disappear, which would be awesome. Long-live the driverless car subscription model.

rsync 9y ago

"If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below." I think you drastically underestimate the possible values of pessimism. In my opinion, truly autonomous vehicles driving in arbitrary, real world, public roads in my lifetime sounds optimistic ...

alkonaut 9y ago
I think it might be possible that the subscription fleets that already exist in many cities can be used to "summon" (like teslas can be summoned) a few blocks ro a few miles, autonomously, because they know the area. That makes these subscriptions much more convenient than having to pick up/drop off a share car in a fixed spot. The user uses the car for a while in semi-autonomous mode (car can drive 90, 95 or 99% with user supervision) and then the user can return it by letting it drive back. If the car is stuck it just stops and a driver from the fleet company comes along to drive it. I think a scenario like that could be viable in small scale for some metropolitan areas (good climate, limited user base etc) within 5 years.
60654 9y ago
Yeah, having done robotics in the past, I'm super skeptical of promises of level 5 autonomy in the real world, even in the medium term. I mean, we were able to do level 5 trucks in the desert two decades ago! But the human world is much less benign, and the perception problem is hard. And the history of AI is littered with limited solutions that failed to scale. So I'm more curious about the purported GM testing of level 4 in Manhattan, it's a much more realistic and far less forgiving driving environment.

ataturk 9y ago

I have a few reservations about all of it: First off, you're putting your life in the hands of some code, which is totally stupid, as anyone who writes code for a living will attest (and don't talk to me about airliners and autopilots, it's no the same thing with a PILOT sitting right there who can immediately take over the plane). Second, these stupid things will be red-lined such that you won't be able to have it take to a location other than where you're allowed to go. If you don't think that is a probable scenario, just watch as robbery gangs use them to pilfer and steal from the suburbs and see how it all goes down. Third, and this is kind of the stealth thing I see going on here: All this subscription non-ownership is really pulling apart the basic nature of what being free and owning property is all about. I like owning my stuff because it's mine. If you've ever worked around a rental business of any kind, you know what the tragedy of the commons does to rental equipment--and for those who don't know, it gets wrecked HARD. Always. So I don't need some stealth corporate communism shoved up my anus just so Waymo or whoever can make billions. I guess "NO OWNERSHIP" appeals to emasculated Millenials or something, dunno. I really think when these folks finally grow up they're going to be extremely unhappy about the living hell they made for themselves.

CSMastermind 9y ago

I'd bet my left nut that by 2021 there won't be a self-driving car subscription service. I'd be surprised if your average consumer could buy them by then.

rayiner 9y ago

I’ll bet you money there’s no legal self- driving car subscription like that in DC by 2023

harryh 9y ago
I'm not willing to bet on specific prices or business models but I will bet you $100 that a traveler will be able to take a self driving car from Reagan Airport to The Hay-Adams Hotel on or before Dec 31, 2023.