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On the other hand, if China had tried to reign in its bubbles during the crisis from 2008, that would have been bad for then and the whole world economy.
by danmaz74 9y ago
On the other hand, if China had tried to reign in its bubbles during the crisis from 2008, that would have been bad for then and the whole world economy.
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoPerhaps, but it would have been better for china itself in the long term. The worldwide crash would have also provided political cover for its leaders, while if it crashes now, they are pretty much on their own in taking blame. I don’t envy the spot they put themselves in, can kicking can only last so long.
- fooker 9y agoTheir leaders are not as answerable as you might expect.
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoThey have pressure and really care about their face. They are like concrete: they break much later, but can’t bend and there are no pressure valves. Their is only catostrophic failure, nothing in between. They still have to scapegoat like other politicians.
- danmaz74 9y agoOf course, you can never know the "ifs" of history, but crashing your internal demand at the same exact time when your external demand is collapsing looks to me like a perfect recipe for depression.
- seanmcdirmid 9y agoI was there at the time. It would have just been a minor correction, they could have pushed through more reforms at the same time. Instead they decided to to go full turkey on bubble expansions.