4 ms·

The oil crisis was real though. If it wasn't for the growth in supply from unconventional oil in the past 10 years, today's oil price would be over $150/barrel.

WaxProlix 9y ago
Don't bother, these are the same people who see (or don't see) herculean feats made to thwart things like Y2K, oil shortages, or the forestalling of climate change and say to themselves, "Aha, I was right - there was no catastrophe at all. Those fools, scurrying around spending tons of effort and money!"
- smnrchrds 9y ago
  Also acid rains and air pollution in general.
nostrademons 9y ago
But that's precisely the mechanism by which supply crises are resolved. A shortage leads to a sharp rise in the price of the material, which creates a profit opportunity for the development of unconventional supplies. The increased supply then resolves the crisis. You can't assume the lack of innovation when our whole economic system is built to encourage innovation where most needed.
- giomasce 9y ago
  You cannot even assume that innovation can automatically fix supply issues: unconventional oil extraction is possible because unconventional oil is there in the first place. This might not happen with other minerals.
  - nostrademons 9y ago
    The great thing about capitalism is that it's agnostic about the solution, though. If the unconventional oil isn't there, there's a strong incentive to develop other energy sources like solar. The previous energy crisis - Peak Whale Oil - was resolved that way. We didn't end up discovering a new source or species of whales. Instead, we found that this 300M year old black gunk that comes out of the ground could be refined into all the products that we used whale blubber for, plus several others. And there was much more of it available, and it took a lot less labor.
    - giomasce 9y ago
      Very good, as long as it works. There have been cases in the past when people did not find the innovation they needed at some point, and have experienced extinction or close extinction. I would like to not risk that again, also because that would be the first time where the extinction risks to be global, not just local. I liked very muche Collapse by Jared Diamond. He discusses some cases of this type, starting from the iconic history of Easter Island.
  - Dylan16807 9y ago
    It's true for most minerals, though. We're mostly mining the easy stuff. I'd guess that for just about all rocks we're much closer to the easy end than we are with oil, with no real worry of running out.

WaxProlix 9y ago

Don't bother, these are the same people who see (or don't see) herculean feats made to thwart things like Y2K, oil shortages, or the forestalling of climate change and say to themselves, "Aha, I was right - there was no catastrophe at all. Those fools, scurrying around spending tons of effort and money!"

smnrchrds 9y ago
Also acid rains and air pollution in general.

nostrademons 9y ago

But that's precisely the mechanism by which supply crises are resolved. A shortage leads to a sharp rise in the price of the material, which creates a profit opportunity for the development of unconventional supplies. The increased supply then resolves the crisis. You can't assume the lack of innovation when our whole economic system is built to encourage innovation where most needed.

giomasce 9y ago
You cannot even assume that innovation can automatically fix supply issues: unconventional oil extraction is possible because unconventional oil is there in the first place. This might not happen with other minerals.
- nostrademons 9y ago
  The great thing about capitalism is that it's agnostic about the solution, though. If the unconventional oil isn't there, there's a strong incentive to develop other energy sources like solar. The previous energy crisis - Peak Whale Oil - was resolved that way. We didn't end up discovering a new source or species of whales. Instead, we found that this 300M year old black gunk that comes out of the ground could be refined into all the products that we used whale blubber for, plus several others. And there was much more of it available, and it took a lot less labor.
  - giomasce 9y ago
    Very good, as long as it works. There have been cases in the past when people did not find the innovation they needed at some point, and have experienced extinction or close extinction. I would like to not risk that again, also because that would be the first time where the extinction risks to be global, not just local. I liked very muche Collapse by Jared Diamond. He discusses some cases of this type, starting from the iconic history of Easter Island.
- Dylan16807 9y ago
  It's true for most minerals, though. We're mostly mining the easy stuff. I'd guess that for just about all rocks we're much closer to the easy end than we are with oil, with no real worry of running out.