Virality without value advantage tends to be short-lived. Social signaling is part of the ‘value’ in my model. The utility of existing competition and their c

Virality without value advantage tends to be short-lived. Social signaling is part of the ‘value’ in my model. The utility of existing competition and their costs are included in the term ‘marginal’. I am aware that my simple model, occurring in a couple minutes, is incomplete that’s why I asked for refinements. Including factors like distribution & marketing seems very useful. However, capturing imperfect rationality does not seem possible for a simple model. Do you have references to the ‘fairly comprehensive ways of expressing the likelihood of success of a product’?