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About time. I build autonomous/ADAS testbed cars in Detroit and it's astonishing the stuff that the California cars get flustered by. LIDAR is baffled by snow,

About time. I build autonomous/ADAS testbed cars in Detroit and it's astonishing the stuff that the California cars get flustered by. LIDAR is baffled by snow, RADAR sensors get packed with slush if they're mounted too low, etc.

falcolas 9y ago
And that doesn't even cover the complete variability of traction from one yard of pavement to the next in winter, or the legibility of road markers. There's a lot of challenges, and I'm glad they're finally getting to it.
- gt_ 9y ago
  I expect traction to eventually be one of their strong suits. Machine learning on weather conditions and traffic patterns should work. I’ve got a unique amount of snow-driving experience in most every region of the globe (many years working for a snowboarding magazine) and my hunch is a computer could do this wonderfully. Much of these things should be very predictable with delicate sensory input, and roads have predictable problem spots. One particularly problematic variable that will undermine weather calculations and traction will be the complications of road de-icer. In high-altitude inland regions, de-icer is not used, with a few exceptions after storms are long gone and the temperature has warmed. These regions should be a piece of cake for autonomous vehicles. Detroit in mid-winter probably resembles this for a few months due to low temps but humidity will destabilize de-icer during early and later winter. And, temp fluctuations resulting from humidity, coupled with high snowfall, necessitates the use of de-icer to prevent the city from getting buried in. In coastal regions like CA, de-icer more predictably melts and cleans the roads. In regions like Chicago, de-icer will hve every effect imaginable, both creating ice and melting it multiple times a day. But if a road is not de-iced the traction will follow a different pattern. I can’t imagine how a self-driving car could determine this. To further complicat things, de-icer can often create ice and be counterintuitive in only shaded parts of the road. De-icer is used so differently, an so often foolishly in different regions.
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    Detroit doesn't really get enough snow or stay cold enough for ice to be an extended problem. On a cold morning intersections can get a bit slick, but that is about it. (I've lived in Ann Arbor, my brother lives a bit outside Detroit). Michigan also tends to just salt the shit out of roads. Probably enough to impact the chemistry of the Flint River. Not so much way up North where it stays colder. Sand there. As far as the cars, they just measure the available traction several thousand times a second. Electronic stability control is mandatory for new cars in many jurisdictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#Regulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#R...
    - gt_ 9y ago
      Ah, I thought Detroit would be colder than that mid-winter. As for traction on ice, if the vehicle is already on the ice, it’s too late to slow down. I wonder how the cars could know when they are coming up to ice. Humans can rarely know, but have some complicated ways of identifying, I think from glossiness? And ice is much more rare than snow/slush but both can be present side by side. Either way, I think they will figure it out. Sand can be awful to clean up in urban areas when too muh is used.
    - jsmthrowaway 9y ago
      Have you been here long? We call it a “Michigan winter” for a reason. Yes, Detroit suffers less for a few reasons, but I still wouldn’t agree with your assertion. It doesn’t sound like you’re describing the Detroit I grew up in, where dozen+ car pileups are a regular occurrence, particularly the big hundred+ ones on 94 out your way. That’s even discounting the wide-area ice storms that knock out power from everything getting coated in three to four inches of pure ice, which I can remember happening at least four or five times when I was younger. The last couple winters have been relatively light. We are due for a whopper. Seriously, Michigan winter is accelerated natural selection for drivers. You learn quick or you die.
    - supernumerary 9y ago
      I live in Detroit. Here's a picture of the front of a truck. https://iainmait.land/img/photos/1920/ram_grill_2016_iain_maitland.jpg https://iainmait.land/img/photos/1920/ram_grill_2016_iain_ma...
c0nsumer 9y ago
Hey! I think I know you. Hello!
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
beager 9y ago
IMO if you solve for inclement weather and snow you've brought the capabilities of autonomous vehicles to a nationally viable level.
- Tarq0n 9y ago
  Is there progress being made on letting cars self-drive on unmarked and dirt roads? I imagine that would be important for users in less developed areas.
  - olyjohn 9y ago
    Sounds like it would be a good step to take before taking on snowy roads. The conditions are pretty similar with low traction, no markings, People driving in opposite directions having to figure out a way around eachother when the road narrows... At least you wouldn't have to deal with the actual cold temps and snow and ice. Traction would be more consistent on gravel vs snowy and icy roads too.
  - eco 9y ago
    The first two DARPA Grand Challenges took place on dirt roads. Well maintained dirt roads but dirt roads nonetheless.
    - ghaff 9y ago
      Well-graded dirt roads in good weather aren't really challenging other than not having lane markers. (Which is pretty much a trivial issue for a human.) Maybe you need to slow down a bit if it gets washboardy. The challenge is as roads get narrower (<2 cars), rougher, etc. to the point where you really need high-clearance 4WD and may even have to deal with washouts, etc. I don't expect you'll see autonomous driving systems get here for many decades if only because it's not worthwhile to do so and so much is dependent on evaluating the current conditions on the ground.
      - eco 9y ago
        Just an aside but you actually want to do the counterintuitive thing and speed up on washboardy roads (provided it is safe to do so). Higher speed means your vehicle won't have time to be pulled down into dips letting you ride smoothly supported by the peaks.
peterjlee 9y ago
As a human driver in California, I honestly don't know how to drive in the snow.
- freehunter 9y ago
  Most human drivers in Michigan don't know how to drive in the snow either.
  - icelancer 9y ago
    That's because the best way to drive in the snow is to not do it, yet that doesn't stop plenty of sport compact cars without properly rated tires trying to take on steep grades in sub-zero temperatures while its snowing sideways. There's no skill that's bailing that person out.
    - ghaff 9y ago
      In part because I mostly don't commute these days and generally have a fairly flexible schedule around most things, I've been able to mostly avoid going out in snow in all but the rarest circumstances. I don't miss it.
    - olyjohn 9y ago
      Ah people love to hate "sport compacts." Really, the worst offenders are SUV drivers with AWD who think that they can take their bald-ass no-season tires and get anywhere just because they have the appearance of ground clearance and an extra traction wheel. Last time we had a major snow, I took my "sport compact" car with proper tires and ran circles around the clueless SUV drivers who were spun out in the middle of the highway. The best way to drive in the snow is to get out and do it at a time when there is light traffic. Go find an empty parking lot. Learn how your car handles, learn to rock your car to get unstuck. Learn about gearing, learn what no traction feels like. Learn what a skid feels like. One day, you might not have a choice but to drive in the snow, so you might as well spend an hour or so working on your driving skills. Not to mention all these skills translate to making you a better driver all the time, and could help you some day avoid an accident.
greglindahl 9y ago
It's a mystery to me why people assume that California car companies don't test their cars in Tahoe, which has snow. Where we go skiing. Does Detroit not have areas within driving distance that have radically different climates? California does. The article even says it: "But it won’t be Waymo’s first foray on dangerously snowy streets: the company has previously tested its vehicles in winter conditions outside Lake Tahoe."
- jonknee 9y ago
  Tahoe even seems more challenging because of the steep and windy roads.

falcolas 9y ago

And that doesn't even cover the complete variability of traction from one yard of pavement to the next in winter, or the legibility of road markers. There's a lot of challenges, and I'm glad they're finally getting to it.

gt_ 9y ago
I expect traction to eventually be one of their strong suits. Machine learning on weather conditions and traffic patterns should work. I’ve got a unique amount of snow-driving experience in most every region of the globe (many years working for a snowboarding magazine) and my hunch is a computer could do this wonderfully. Much of these things should be very predictable with delicate sensory input, and roads have predictable problem spots. One particularly problematic variable that will undermine weather calculations and traction will be the complications of road de-icer. In high-altitude inland regions, de-icer is not used, with a few exceptions after storms are long gone and the temperature has warmed. These regions should be a piece of cake for autonomous vehicles. Detroit in mid-winter probably resembles this for a few months due to low temps but humidity will destabilize de-icer during early and later winter. And, temp fluctuations resulting from humidity, coupled with high snowfall, necessitates the use of de-icer to prevent the city from getting buried in. In coastal regions like CA, de-icer more predictably melts and cleans the roads. In regions like Chicago, de-icer will hve every effect imaginable, both creating ice and melting it multiple times a day. But if a road is not de-iced the traction will follow a different pattern. I can’t imagine how a self-driving car could determine this. To further complicat things, de-icer can often create ice and be counterintuitive in only shaded parts of the road. De-icer is used so differently, an so often foolishly in different regions.
- maxerickson 9y ago
  Detroit doesn't really get enough snow or stay cold enough for ice to be an extended problem. On a cold morning intersections can get a bit slick, but that is about it. (I've lived in Ann Arbor, my brother lives a bit outside Detroit). Michigan also tends to just salt the shit out of roads. Probably enough to impact the chemistry of the Flint River. Not so much way up North where it stays colder. Sand there. As far as the cars, they just measure the available traction several thousand times a second. Electronic stability control is mandatory for new cars in many jurisdictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#Regulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#R...
  - gt_ 9y ago
    Ah, I thought Detroit would be colder than that mid-winter. As for traction on ice, if the vehicle is already on the ice, it’s too late to slow down. I wonder how the cars could know when they are coming up to ice. Humans can rarely know, but have some complicated ways of identifying, I think from glossiness? And ice is much more rare than snow/slush but both can be present side by side. Either way, I think they will figure it out. Sand can be awful to clean up in urban areas when too muh is used.
  - jsmthrowaway 9y ago
    Have you been here long? We call it a “Michigan winter” for a reason. Yes, Detroit suffers less for a few reasons, but I still wouldn’t agree with your assertion. It doesn’t sound like you’re describing the Detroit I grew up in, where dozen+ car pileups are a regular occurrence, particularly the big hundred+ ones on 94 out your way. That’s even discounting the wide-area ice storms that knock out power from everything getting coated in three to four inches of pure ice, which I can remember happening at least four or five times when I was younger. The last couple winters have been relatively light. We are due for a whopper. Seriously, Michigan winter is accelerated natural selection for drivers. You learn quick or you die.
  - supernumerary 9y ago
    I live in Detroit. Here's a picture of the front of a truck. https://iainmait.land/img/photos/1920/ram_grill_2016_iain_maitland.jpg https://iainmait.land/img/photos/1920/ram_grill_2016_iain_ma...

c0nsumer 9y ago

Hey! I think I know you. Hello!

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]

beager 9y ago

IMO if you solve for inclement weather and snow you've brought the capabilities of autonomous vehicles to a nationally viable level.

Tarq0n 9y ago
Is there progress being made on letting cars self-drive on unmarked and dirt roads? I imagine that would be important for users in less developed areas.
- olyjohn 9y ago
  Sounds like it would be a good step to take before taking on snowy roads. The conditions are pretty similar with low traction, no markings, People driving in opposite directions having to figure out a way around eachother when the road narrows... At least you wouldn't have to deal with the actual cold temps and snow and ice. Traction would be more consistent on gravel vs snowy and icy roads too.
- eco 9y ago
  The first two DARPA Grand Challenges took place on dirt roads. Well maintained dirt roads but dirt roads nonetheless.
  - ghaff 9y ago
    Well-graded dirt roads in good weather aren't really challenging other than not having lane markers. (Which is pretty much a trivial issue for a human.) Maybe you need to slow down a bit if it gets washboardy. The challenge is as roads get narrower (<2 cars), rougher, etc. to the point where you really need high-clearance 4WD and may even have to deal with washouts, etc. I don't expect you'll see autonomous driving systems get here for many decades if only because it's not worthwhile to do so and so much is dependent on evaluating the current conditions on the ground.
    - eco 9y ago
      Just an aside but you actually want to do the counterintuitive thing and speed up on washboardy roads (provided it is safe to do so). Higher speed means your vehicle won't have time to be pulled down into dips letting you ride smoothly supported by the peaks.

peterjlee 9y ago

As a human driver in California, I honestly don't know how to drive in the snow.

freehunter 9y ago
Most human drivers in Michigan don't know how to drive in the snow either.
- icelancer 9y ago
  That's because the best way to drive in the snow is to not do it, yet that doesn't stop plenty of sport compact cars without properly rated tires trying to take on steep grades in sub-zero temperatures while its snowing sideways. There's no skill that's bailing that person out.
  - ghaff 9y ago
    In part because I mostly don't commute these days and generally have a fairly flexible schedule around most things, I've been able to mostly avoid going out in snow in all but the rarest circumstances. I don't miss it.
  - olyjohn 9y ago
    Ah people love to hate "sport compacts." Really, the worst offenders are SUV drivers with AWD who think that they can take their bald-ass no-season tires and get anywhere just because they have the appearance of ground clearance and an extra traction wheel. Last time we had a major snow, I took my "sport compact" car with proper tires and ran circles around the clueless SUV drivers who were spun out in the middle of the highway. The best way to drive in the snow is to get out and do it at a time when there is light traffic. Go find an empty parking lot. Learn how your car handles, learn to rock your car to get unstuck. Learn about gearing, learn what no traction feels like. Learn what a skid feels like. One day, you might not have a choice but to drive in the snow, so you might as well spend an hour or so working on your driving skills. Not to mention all these skills translate to making you a better driver all the time, and could help you some day avoid an accident.

greglindahl 9y ago

It's a mystery to me why people assume that California car companies don't test their cars in Tahoe, which has snow. Where we go skiing. Does Detroit not have areas within driving distance that have radically different climates? California does. The article even says it: "But it won’t be Waymo’s first foray on dangerously snowy streets: the company has previously tested its vehicles in winter conditions outside Lake Tahoe."

jonknee 9y ago
Tahoe even seems more challenging because of the steep and windy roads.