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For better or for worse, there will be no independent Catalonia in the foreseeable future. About 40-50% of Catalans don't support this. The EU doesn't support t
by chrisbrowning 9y ago
For better or for worse, there will be no independent Catalonia in the foreseeable future. About 40-50% of Catalans don't support this. The EU doesn't support this, no Western nation supports this (save maybe Russia if you consider them Western -- and even their position is unclear). Furthermore, Spain won't allow it, and they're the main actor in a position to do something about it.
Even if Catalonia somehow manages to enforce its declaration, the economic consequences will be so devastating that they will reverse course in due time.
- pbhjpbhj 9y agoPardon my ignorance, but why would Russia support Catalan independence?
- matthewmacleod 9y agoSame reason they supported Brexit - it causes instability and weakens the EU.
- darishante 9y agoRussia seems to like Europe destabilized, in all possible ways.
- jacquesm 9y agoDivide and conquer.
- bzbarsky 9y agoIf I had to guess: (1) Because they feel that it would add legitimacy to the "referendum" they held in Crimea, if only by comparison and (2) just generally to cause trouble in the EU.
- chrisbrowning 9y agoThey see it as "payback" for the EU/Nato's support for Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence. Interestingly, Spain is probably the only Western nation that doesn't recognize Kosovo's independence.
- thriftwy 9y agoI can't name a single secessionist movement that got distracted by economy. If anything, economic troubles reinforce the determination. Once people take independence as a question of pride, they're extremelly reluctant of considering selling their independence for money.
- chrisbrowning 9y agoThere have also been few successful secessionist movements that weren't backed by force of arms. Anyway, I think the calculus is unique in this case. We are already seeing major companies move their headquarters out of Catalonia. Catalonia's independence would mean disruption of access to EU common market benefits and Schengen. Also they couldn't stop smaller provinces from voting to rejoin Spain.
- thriftwy 9y agoLocal militia is often sufficient after you manage to anger locals. Not sufficient to win maybe, but definitely to mandate some sort of peacekeepers.