4 ms·

Some would argue a threat worsened by provocative and unilateral actions, but we'll see who writes the history books.

microcolonel 9y ago
Unilateral actions such as capturing military vessels, ignoring international agreements, making credible mortal threats to billions of people, and launching ICBMs over other nations? DPRK has already engaged in acts of war against both ROK and Japan. There's nothing unilateral left.
- trgv 9y ago
  I don't think the threats are credible. I don't see what NK would gain from "nuking Guam," besides the end of their country. It's just posturing, and "putting Nuclear Bombers on 24-hour alert" is also just posturing.
  - microcolonel 9y ago
    The threats are credible in that they would have no qualms about executing them, not in that they will fail to be averted. > It's just posturing, and "putting Nuclear Bombers on 24-hour alert" is also just posturing. That's exactly my point: there's nothing one-sided about this. DPRK is playing their hand, the U.S. must play theirs.
    - Bendingo 9y ago
      > the U.S. must play theirs Or, as the far stronger side, the US could de-escalate. Not only is this the less-risky option, but it would also garner global respect/admiration for the US - something that has been in short supply for a long time.
      - microcolonel 9y ago
        How do you suggest they de-escalate (without the use of military posturing) a situation where DPRK threatens the very existence of two of our greatest allies, perpetually? I'm sure you realize that if DPRK is left to their own devices, they will develop a sufficient deterrent to simply saunter into ROK, and face no foreign intervention.
  - pmoriarty 9y ago
    "'putting Nuclear Bombers on 24-hour alert' is also just posturing." It also raises the risk of unintentional nuclear exchange. The world has come close to nuclear war multiple times as a result of miscommunication, equipment failure, or accident. The more nukes world leaders are waving about, the greater the risks.
  - remarkEon 9y ago
    >I don't see what NK would gain from "nuking Guam," besides the end of their country. Guam appears to be an internet hub for a few relatively important lines. "The SEA-US cable system will link the five areas and territories of Manado in Indonesia, Davao in Southern Philippines; Piti in the territory of Guam; as well as Honolulu (on the island of Oahu), Hawaii; and Los Angeles, California in the continental U.S." [1] [1] https://www.submarinenetworks.com/systems/trans-pacific/sea-us https://www.submarinenetworks.com/systems/trans-pacific/sea-... Here's the global map: https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/landing-point/piti-guam https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/landing-point/piti-guam
- csallen 9y ago
  Unless I'm mistaken, there is no military solution to the North Korean conflict. If we strike first, they'll destroy Seoul in seconds and cause the largest near-instantaneous loss of life the world has ever seen. They don't even need nuclear weapons to do that. As terrible as the North Korean regime is from a humanitarian perspective, they do seem relatively rational as far as international politics are concerned. The US has demonstrated an appetite for regime change, international law be damned, for decades and decades. If you're a weaker opponent, taking a hostage (Seoul) and making credible threats is a very effective strategy for self preservation. Also, the number of conventional and nuclear weapons we have pointed at their country, from a very close proximity, at all times, is not something we might spend very much time thinking about ourselves, but is top of mind for them. Given their large losses of civilian life in the Korean war at the hands of the US, I'd imagine they'd take that stuff very seriously. Anyway, none of this excuses the clear oppressiveness of Kim Jong Un's government. But it's not like they're the only nation that abuses its military power in threatening ways, and a strong case could be made that they're reacting to us just as we are reacting to them. Just don't expect the American media to dwell too long on how our actions could be considered provocative.
  - adventured 9y ago
    > If we strike first, they'll destroy Seoul in seconds and cause the largest near-instantaneous loss of life the world has ever seen. They don't even need nuclear weapons to do that. That's incorrect analysis. Nothing like instantaneous destruction would occur without nuclear weapons. It would take months of perfect artillery fire to destroy Seoul, assuming 100% detonation rate, unlimited ammo and assuming zero artillery is destroyed. They would run out of ammo before destroying Seoul, even in the impossible perfect scenario. "How much damage an initial attack would inflict depends on how many are used and on how much of the ordnance explodes. In 2010, North Korean forces fired about 170 shells at an island in the South, killing two civilians and two soldiers. Analysts later concluded that about 25 percent of the North’s shells failed to detonate. "A study published by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability in 2012 accounting for these and other factors such as population density concluded that an initial artillery barrage by the North focused on military targets would result in nearly 3,000 fatalities, while one targeting civilians would kill nearly 30,000 people." https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/world/asia/north-korea-south-us-nuclear-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/world/asia/north-korea-so... "A retired U.S. general said a Pentagon war scenario showed a conventional war with North Korea could result in about 20,000 deaths per day in South Korea, according to the Los Angeles Times." https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/korean-war-simulation-by-dod-estimates-20000-deaths-daily-in-south.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/korean-war-simulation-by-dod... http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a6212/north-korea-and-flattening-seoul/ http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a6212/north-korea-a... https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-north-korea-would-retaliate https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-north-korea-would...
- tzs 9y ago
  The ICBM launches over Japan were probably not an act of war, because they did not go through Japanese airspace. When they were over Japan they were over 500 km up. That's well above any nation's airspace. For comparison, the ISS orbits at about 400 km up.

Unilateral actions such as capturing military vessels, ignoring international agreements, making credible mortal threats to billions of people, and launching ICBMs over other nations? DPRK has already engaged in acts of war against both ROK and Japan. There's nothing unilateral left.

trgv 9y ago
I don't think the threats are credible. I don't see what NK would gain from "nuking Guam," besides the end of their country. It's just posturing, and "putting Nuclear Bombers on 24-hour alert" is also just posturing.
- microcolonel 9y ago
  The threats are credible in that they would have no qualms about executing them, not in that they will fail to be averted. > It's just posturing, and "putting Nuclear Bombers on 24-hour alert" is also just posturing. That's exactly my point: there's nothing one-sided about this. DPRK is playing their hand, the U.S. must play theirs.
  - Bendingo 9y ago
    > the U.S. must play theirs Or, as the far stronger side, the US could de-escalate. Not only is this the less-risky option, but it would also garner global respect/admiration for the US - something that has been in short supply for a long time.
    - microcolonel 9y ago
      How do you suggest they de-escalate (without the use of military posturing) a situation where DPRK threatens the very existence of two of our greatest allies, perpetually? I'm sure you realize that if DPRK is left to their own devices, they will develop a sufficient deterrent to simply saunter into ROK, and face no foreign intervention.
- pmoriarty 9y ago
  "'putting Nuclear Bombers on 24-hour alert' is also just posturing." It also raises the risk of unintentional nuclear exchange. The world has come close to nuclear war multiple times as a result of miscommunication, equipment failure, or accident. The more nukes world leaders are waving about, the greater the risks.
- remarkEon 9y ago
  >I don't see what NK would gain from "nuking Guam," besides the end of their country. Guam appears to be an internet hub for a few relatively important lines. "The SEA-US cable system will link the five areas and territories of Manado in Indonesia, Davao in Southern Philippines; Piti in the territory of Guam; as well as Honolulu (on the island of Oahu), Hawaii; and Los Angeles, California in the continental U.S." [1] [1] https://www.submarinenetworks.com/systems/trans-pacific/sea-us https://www.submarinenetworks.com/systems/trans-pacific/sea-... Here's the global map: https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/landing-point/piti-guam https://www.submarinecablemap.com/#/landing-point/piti-guam
csallen 9y ago
Unless I'm mistaken, there is no military solution to the North Korean conflict. If we strike first, they'll destroy Seoul in seconds and cause the largest near-instantaneous loss of life the world has ever seen. They don't even need nuclear weapons to do that. As terrible as the North Korean regime is from a humanitarian perspective, they do seem relatively rational as far as international politics are concerned. The US has demonstrated an appetite for regime change, international law be damned, for decades and decades. If you're a weaker opponent, taking a hostage (Seoul) and making credible threats is a very effective strategy for self preservation. Also, the number of conventional and nuclear weapons we have pointed at their country, from a very close proximity, at all times, is not something we might spend very much time thinking about ourselves, but is top of mind for them. Given their large losses of civilian life in the Korean war at the hands of the US, I'd imagine they'd take that stuff very seriously. Anyway, none of this excuses the clear oppressiveness of Kim Jong Un's government. But it's not like they're the only nation that abuses its military power in threatening ways, and a strong case could be made that they're reacting to us just as we are reacting to them. Just don't expect the American media to dwell too long on how our actions could be considered provocative.
- adventured 9y ago
  > If we strike first, they'll destroy Seoul in seconds and cause the largest near-instantaneous loss of life the world has ever seen. They don't even need nuclear weapons to do that. That's incorrect analysis. Nothing like instantaneous destruction would occur without nuclear weapons. It would take months of perfect artillery fire to destroy Seoul, assuming 100% detonation rate, unlimited ammo and assuming zero artillery is destroyed. They would run out of ammo before destroying Seoul, even in the impossible perfect scenario. "How much damage an initial attack would inflict depends on how many are used and on how much of the ordnance explodes. In 2010, North Korean forces fired about 170 shells at an island in the South, killing two civilians and two soldiers. Analysts later concluded that about 25 percent of the North’s shells failed to detonate. "A study published by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability in 2012 accounting for these and other factors such as population density concluded that an initial artillery barrage by the North focused on military targets would result in nearly 3,000 fatalities, while one targeting civilians would kill nearly 30,000 people." https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/world/asia/north-korea-south-us-nuclear-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/world/asia/north-korea-so... "A retired U.S. general said a Pentagon war scenario showed a conventional war with North Korea could result in about 20,000 deaths per day in South Korea, according to the Los Angeles Times." https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/korean-war-simulation-by-dod-estimates-20000-deaths-daily-in-south.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/korean-war-simulation-by-dod... http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a6212/north-korea-and-flattening-seoul/ http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a6212/north-korea-a... https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-north-korea-would-retaliate https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-north-korea-would...
tzs 9y ago
The ICBM launches over Japan were probably not an act of war, because they did not go through Japanese airspace. When they were over Japan they were over 500 km up. That's well above any nation's airspace. For comparison, the ISS orbits at about 400 km up.