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What makes you think Tesla has the best system? The managers in charge of autopilot keep quitting. The media says they are quitting because Elon is making decep

What makes you think Tesla has the best system? The managers in charge of autopilot keep quitting. The media says they are quitting because Elon is making deceptive claims about autopilot. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

tgtweak 9y ago
Also they've disabled autopilot for the time being. It's an interesting time for Tesla, they feel like the automotive equivalent of AMD - David keeping Goliath honest. How many automotive companies saw Tesla become an actual disruptive threat and then spent tens of billions on self driving and electrification? Tesla isn't going to compete with Honda or Toyota by copying their model (or even their manufacturing process). Take a minute and look at the bolt and the leaf - they're god-ugly, emotionless, unsexy modes of transportation. Buying a leaf is the result of sitting down with a spreadsheet. Need some anecdotal proof? Think to yourself how many of your coworkers, friends and family you can see driving one. How about a model 3? I see more model S's during my commute than I do leafs, volts and bolts combined. Another place to look for confirmation is the lithium ion battery line which was built in collaboration with Panasonic. Panasonic is 2/3rd the size of Toyota and are well versed in manufacturing process. If Tesla wanted to borrow a page from the incumbents they'd be doing so, they have enough brains from those companies already on staff. It's a safe bet that there are very few idiots in upper management at Tesla. Elon isn't the type to ignore a process problem, he's a modeling/simulation junkie and probably figured out something that the others are missing. That's not to say things are perfect, but I don't think they're as dire as the article makes them out to be. The shareholders have faith, and although Tesla shares are slightly bubbly, they're still doing unbelievably well on most fronts.
- probe 9y ago
  A lot of this is confirmation bias at its finest. Not saying you're wrong, but I think it's naive to assume Tesla has some "secret sauce" - there are equally smart and competent people at Tesla competitors. I would bet that the risk and decision making process may be different (incumbents may want higher probability of success to make a bet, while Musk's NPV analysis is different), but again it's naive to assume they don't understand at all what is or isn't possible in manufacturing
- prostoalex 9y ago
  > Also they've disabled autopilot for the time being. Can you elaborate?
- bjelkeman-again 9y ago
  Disabled Autopilot? I am not aware of the Autopilot being disabled by Tesla on cars that have been sold and are on the road. Unless it is Model 3 cars, which there hasn't been much written about.
- skgoa 9y ago
  > How many automotive companies saw Tesla become an actual disruptive threat and then spent tens of billions on self driving and electrification? 0. You have fallen for the "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy. Tesla was not the first company that worked on these things. They were just the first who decided to sell a semi practical implementation and hype it up as if it where completely finished and polished.
  - TeMPOraL 9y ago
    True for the self-driving part, false for the electrification part. Tesla seems to be the first company to solve the range problem of electric cars, thus delivering something practical for almost everyone.
- nradov 9y ago
  In the Bay Area (Tesla home territory) I see a lot more Leafs than Teslas, mainly because the Leaf is the cheapest way to get a carpool lane sticker. For people who commute on congested local highways the time savings of carpool lane access can make a Leaf effectively "free". Nissan is leasing them extremely cheaply due to the government electric vehicle subsidy and to meet CARB zero-emissions requirements.
prostoalex 9y ago
It’s not like choosing a fridge, where there are 500 models available. There are two autopilot systems commercially available today - Tesla Autopilot and Honda Sensing Driver Assistance. Two more are slated to be released - Cadillac SuperCruise and Audi Traffic Jam Pilot. The rest is an all-you-can-read buffet of press releases about some great tech this one company tested in this one lab (I hear Waymo is great, and Volvo’s is even better). Pending Cadillac’s and Audi’s road tests in 2018, Tesla Autopilot v1 is the best driver assistance suite available commercially in 2017, even with all of the executive departures.
- udhan 9y ago
  Subaru's eyesight is there since 2015. Afaik, Honda sensing and eyesight are very similar.
  - cl0wnshoes 9y ago
    Test drove a 2015 Acura, took multiple corners on the freeway unassisted while pacing the cars in front. No clue how long they've had that technology. I'm sure there are more equally impressive cars/packages that we don't hear much about.
- rconti 9y ago
  I looked at Honda's PR site for Honda Sensing Driver Assistance. Lane departure, forward collision warning, collision mitigation? So, in other words, everything my Golf has? Hell, the DSG Golfs will even go to a full stop on laser cruise. It takes a button press to get it to resume, but it's pretty damn close to non-steering autopilot (yes, it has lane keeping, but like most of these systems, it makes you take over after a few seconds of inattention).

tgtweak 9y ago

Also they've disabled autopilot for the time being. It's an interesting time for Tesla, they feel like the automotive equivalent of AMD - David keeping Goliath honest. How many automotive companies saw Tesla become an actual disruptive threat and then spent tens of billions on self driving and electrification? Tesla isn't going to compete with Honda or Toyota by copying their model (or even their manufacturing process). Take a minute and look at the bolt and the leaf - they're god-ugly, emotionless, unsexy modes of transportation. Buying a leaf is the result of sitting down with a spreadsheet. Need some anecdotal proof? Think to yourself how many of your coworkers, friends and family you can see driving one. How about a model 3? I see more model S's during my commute than I do leafs, volts and bolts combined. Another place to look for confirmation is the lithium ion battery line which was built in collaboration with Panasonic. Panasonic is 2/3rd the size of Toyota and are well versed in manufacturing process. If Tesla wanted to borrow a page from the incumbents they'd be doing so, they have enough brains from those companies already on staff. It's a safe bet that there are very few idiots in upper management at Tesla. Elon isn't the type to ignore a process problem, he's a modeling/simulation junkie and probably figured out something that the others are missing. That's not to say things are perfect, but I don't think they're as dire as the article makes them out to be. The shareholders have faith, and although Tesla shares are slightly bubbly, they're still doing unbelievably well on most fronts.

probe 9y ago
A lot of this is confirmation bias at its finest. Not saying you're wrong, but I think it's naive to assume Tesla has some "secret sauce" - there are equally smart and competent people at Tesla competitors. I would bet that the risk and decision making process may be different (incumbents may want higher probability of success to make a bet, while Musk's NPV analysis is different), but again it's naive to assume they don't understand at all what is or isn't possible in manufacturing
prostoalex 9y ago
> Also they've disabled autopilot for the time being. Can you elaborate?
bjelkeman-again 9y ago
Disabled Autopilot? I am not aware of the Autopilot being disabled by Tesla on cars that have been sold and are on the road. Unless it is Model 3 cars, which there hasn't been much written about.
skgoa 9y ago
> How many automotive companies saw Tesla become an actual disruptive threat and then spent tens of billions on self driving and electrification? 0. You have fallen for the "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy. Tesla was not the first company that worked on these things. They were just the first who decided to sell a semi practical implementation and hype it up as if it where completely finished and polished.
- TeMPOraL 9y ago
  True for the self-driving part, false for the electrification part. Tesla seems to be the first company to solve the range problem of electric cars, thus delivering something practical for almost everyone.
nradov 9y ago
In the Bay Area (Tesla home territory) I see a lot more Leafs than Teslas, mainly because the Leaf is the cheapest way to get a carpool lane sticker. For people who commute on congested local highways the time savings of carpool lane access can make a Leaf effectively "free". Nissan is leasing them extremely cheaply due to the government electric vehicle subsidy and to meet CARB zero-emissions requirements.

prostoalex 9y ago

It’s not like choosing a fridge, where there are 500 models available. There are two autopilot systems commercially available today - Tesla Autopilot and Honda Sensing Driver Assistance. Two more are slated to be released - Cadillac SuperCruise and Audi Traffic Jam Pilot. The rest is an all-you-can-read buffet of press releases about some great tech this one company tested in this one lab (I hear Waymo is great, and Volvo’s is even better). Pending Cadillac’s and Audi’s road tests in 2018, Tesla Autopilot v1 is the best driver assistance suite available commercially in 2017, even with all of the executive departures.

udhan 9y ago
Subaru's eyesight is there since 2015. Afaik, Honda sensing and eyesight are very similar.
- cl0wnshoes 9y ago
  Test drove a 2015 Acura, took multiple corners on the freeway unassisted while pacing the cars in front. No clue how long they've had that technology. I'm sure there are more equally impressive cars/packages that we don't hear much about.
rconti 9y ago
I looked at Honda's PR site for Honda Sensing Driver Assistance. Lane departure, forward collision warning, collision mitigation? So, in other words, everything my Golf has? Hell, the DSG Golfs will even go to a full stop on laser cruise. It takes a button press to get it to resume, but it's pretty damn close to non-steering autopilot (yes, it has lane keeping, but like most of these systems, it makes you take over after a few seconds of inattention).